by Eugene on Tue Nov 04, 2003 1:30 pm
Despite all the mistakes and the draft busts, GM's usually have a great deal of information on the players they draft. You listed the most simple characteristics, and we can make a decision now because we know who they turned out to be, but at the moment of the draft, so much of it is guesswork.
For example, GMs knew that Shaq was a "true C with no midrange game but is strong and dunks 10/10 times," but they also knew that he could run the floor as well as any big man at that time and that he tremendous athleticism for his size. He also had a dominant college career.
Jordan was actually somewhat of a question mark. Yes, he had a very good college career, during which he average 17.7 points, 5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.6 steals over 3 seasons. He's incredibly athletic, but he did have a suspect jumpshot, which he improved once he was in the league.
"A 7'6" player who is a question mark" can either be Yao Ming or Shawn Bradley. Yao was far more athletic and was a much better passer and shooter than Bradley.
You listed T-Mac for a "6-8 unknown HS." Did you forget about Lenny Cooke?
"A tall and skilled player who has probably the best college stats." Like Tim Duncan?
I'd wait on John Stockton, just like the Wizards waited, but happily didn't pass, on Steve Blake--a "white unathletic, short, PG who has trouble scoring and questionable speed," but with incredible basketball IQ, defensive intensity and pure point guard instincts.
Looking back, I'd never have drafted Charles Barkley if the most important thing about him was that he had weight problems and poor attitude.
Apparently, 6'10" power forwards with NBA-ready body goes mid to late lottery nowadays, so that's where I'd draft him.
So, my conclusion?
Hindsight 20/20, knowing who these players are...
1. MJ (The G.O.A.T)
2. Shaq (You can't teach size and athleticism--he has both.)
3. Yao (You can't teach height and court vision--he has both.)
4. T-Mac (Only because he is who he is today)
5. Malone (You always go with a big...)
6. Stockton (before you draft a small)
7. Barkley (He's 6'4", as good as he was)
8. Ferry (nobody drafts him in retrospect)
Given the information the GMs had at the time?
1. Shaq
1a. MJ
3. Yao
4. Mailman
5. Sir Charles
6. Stockton
7. Danny Ferry
8. T-Mac
With the information you gave me?
1. Danny Ferry (He could turn out to be the next TD, who knows?)
2. Shaq
3. MJ
4. Mailman
5. Yao
6. Barkley
7. Stockton
8. T-Mac
All the best,
Eugene
The task of the artist is to translate for us the essence of things we take for granted.