).
2003/2004 Season Preview
STANDINGS
East:
1. Nets
2. Pistons
3. Hornets
4. Sixers
5. Celtics
6. Magic
7. Pacers
8. Raptors
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9. Bulls
10. Knicks
11. Bucks
12. Wizards
13. Heat
14. Hawks
15. Cavs
West:
1. Lakers
2. Spurs
3. Kings
4. Mavericks
5. Timberwolves
6. Blazers
7. Suns
8. Rockets
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9. Sonics
10. Jazz
11. Grizzlies
12. Warriors
13. Clippers
14. Nuggets
NBA Finals Series
Lakers over Nets (at least 5 games)
EAST PREVIEW
Nets
Added Mourning and kept the core that made them 2003 Eastern Conference Champs, minus Mt Mutombo. Not many people expected the Nets to make the Finals in 2002, and a return trip in 2003 wasn't seen as a sure thing either. This year the Nets have to be the favourites in the East. I expect over 50 wins and a third straight trip to the championship round.
Pistons
A very similar team to last year, though Prince will take Curry's place in the starting five. I still think the defense of the Beast won't make up for the lack of a great scorer. Rip can give them over 20 ppg and Billups was huge in the playoffs, but they just don't have that go to guy who can take over a game offensively. Even their blue collar ancestors the Bad Boy Pistons had Isiah Thomas - the current Pistons need a guy like that.
Hornets
This is the Hornets' final year in the Eastern Conference. They have a good shot at coming out of the East, but I still expect the Eastern Finals to be New Jersey vs Detroit - one of those teams will represent the East in the NBA Finals. Still, the Hornets shouldn't have a bad year before they're thrown into the Western Conference.
Sixers
Lost Larry Brown, but Ayers has been around a while and should be able to keep them a top four team in the East. The addition of Glenn Robinson should ensure they advance past the first round, but anything beyond that is wishful thinking.
Celtics
Boston should fare better this year, but O'Brien has to be firm about three pointers. The Celtics would benefit from a stronger post game, and that might come from Vin Baker, who's slimmed down and seems to be determined to get his career back on track. Should finish around 4th or 5th in the regular season.
Magic
Won't have Hill this season, but a frontcourt of Gooden, Howard and DeClercq doesn't sound too bad at all. They're a little weak at point guard, but they have one of the best players in the league starting at shooting guard. The Magic need to improve on last season's performance, or T-Mac is going to consider opting out and moving on. Good news for the rest of the league, bad news for Orlando.
Pacers
Lost Brad Miller, brought in Rick Carlisle, but possibly alienated their best player. The loss of one Miller and the continued decline of the other means Indiana will likely slip to 7th or 8th in the East this season. Larry Legend must repair the rift with Jermaine O'Neal though. A bull-headed approach will not earn a desirable reputation and will come back to hurt the franchise when it comes time to bid for top free agents.
Raptors
Should be back in the playoffs if Vince remains healthy, but some changes need to be made soon. Antonio Davis isn't getting any younger, and the bench is above average and features young potential, but Vince needs more help before this team can get back to 7 game dog fights beyond the first round.
Bulls
Krause is out, meaning negotiating with free agents suddenly became easier. Take Scottie Pippen's return for example. Speaking of which, while he's no longer the player he once was, he can still produce and his knowledge of the triangle should make him the leader of this young team. With the continued development of the Three Cs, the Bulls might find themselves challenging for the 8th playoff spot - but likely coming up short.
Knicks
Added Mutombo and Van Horn, but lost Spree, who was the heart of the team. Van Horn lacks the toughness to drag the team back to the playoffs, Mutombo can contribute but is no longer the player he was just a few years ago and Allan Houston brings scoring but not much else. The playoffs are probably just out of reach, but they shouldn't do any worse than last year's team.
Bucks
In rebuilding mode, the Bucks have managed to give away their Big Three without much compensation. Allen is gone and so is his replacement, Payton. Cassell has been shipped to Minnesota, and Big Dog Robinson is now in Philadelphia, via Atlanta. Some nice young talent and a couple of capable veterans remain, but anything higher than 11th in the East will be overachieving.
Wizards
After blaming a lack of progress on the Jordan Regime, the young Wizards must now back up their words, otherwise they'll be eating them at the season's end. MJ's on court presence will no longer "hinder" them, and the people he hired have been shown the door. If they don't meet last season's standard, they'll have no one to blame but themselves.
Heat
The team of the late 90s a distant memory, the Heat still have a chance to be respectable this year. I've picked them to finish pretty low, but they could certainly be surprising competitive. A starting five of Grant, Odom, Butler, Jones and Wade is nice, but they won't get much help from their bench. Lottery bound.
Hawks
Traded one of their best players for cap relief, allowed a rift to develop with another before retaining him due to restricted free agency. Reef's record of games without making the playoffs should be extended by 82 if he plays the whole season.
Cavaliers
LeBron will excite, but the Cavs will still be at the bottom of the league. Good decision by Silas not to play LeBron at point guard, but Cleveland isn't playoff bound just yet. Darius Miles could be a great sixth man, but his development is a topic for another time. Disappointing if they don't better last year's record, but any goal higher than that is jumping the gun.
WEST PREVIEW
Lakers
Early favourites to win it all, but let's not hand them the trophy just yet. This isn't NBA Live or a fantasy league - victory is not achieved on paper. Results speak louder than individual statistics. The most impressive foursome in NBA history will not go undefeated and they haven't won it all until they've won it all. Deep teams don't fare as well as the teams that can play the best team ball, but this Laker team may not suffer the same pitfalls as previous paper champions. Easily the favourite.
Spurs
Farewelled the Admiral, but did a pretty good job at assembling a pretty good roster for the 2003/2004 season. Could still be the top dog in the Midwest division, and could probably make it to the Conference Finals. Could defend their title, but I wouldn't count on it.
Kings
The Kings are starting to become one of those teams that always qualifies for the playoffs as a top four seed, advances past the first round, but assumes the role of "stepping stone" from there on. A playoff contender, a longshot title contender, but nothing more than that.
Mavericks
Will miss Nick the Quick, but made a great acquisition in Jamison. This team can definitely score, and their starting five is one of the best in the league, but their ability to stop other teams from scoring is still questionable. Great starting five, fine bench, but like the Kings they're at best a longshot to win the title.
Timberwolves
Surrounded KG with talent then signed him to an extension. All in all, a great offseason for the Wolves but unless/until they move to the Eastern Conference, they're doomed to bow out in the first round. I've picked them to meet Dallas in the first round, a matchup I would expect Dallas to win. Spree can be the clutch performer Szczerbiak isn't, Cassell has become a good scoring point guard and KG is perhaps the most versatile player in the game. Olowokandi and Wally World round out a very good starting five and Hudson will be a spark plug off the bench, but the Wolves will still have a tough time advancing.
Blazers
Lost Pip, but shouldn't slip too far. Not quite as deep as they were a few seasons back, but they should still qualify for the playoffs around the 6th seed, and perhaps steal a game or two from one of the West's top teams before being eliminated in the first round.
Suns
Should make the playoffs again this season. Amare will only get better, while Starbury and the Matrix should have repeat All-Star seasons. I've picked them to finish 7th and the Rockets 8th, but those seedings may be reversed. It would be nice to see Penny have a good season (he wasn't too bad last season, injuries aside), and Joe Johnson will again add decent numbers off the bench.
Rockets
Should finally make it back to the playoffs in 2004. A stronger Yao Ming should be even better this year, but he needs more shots. It will be difficult to take shots away from Stevie Franchise and Cat Mobley, but Van Gundy should be able to find opportunities for Yao to be dominant. Assistant coach Patrick Ewing should help in his development, too.
Sonics
Might challenge for the 8th seed, but they have little chance of knocking Phoenix or Houston out of the top eight. There are thinner rosters in the league, but there's still not much to be excited about. Probably won't break .500, but Ray Allen should lead them to a respectable season.
Jazz
Having endured one of the worst offseasons in recent history, the Jazz enter the season without Stockton or Malone for the first time in 20 years. Like their 1983/84 counterparts, the Jazz won't be at the bottom of the league, but they'll still be lottery bound.
Grizzlies
This could be the best season in the team's brief history. They have some fine young players, but they're not good enough to challenge the might of the powerful Western teams. They could certainly better last season's record, but they have no chance of cracking the top eight.
Warriors
A very disappointing offseason for the Warriors. The departure of Jamison and Arenas has sent them back into rebuilding mode, a shame after they looked like they might make the playoffs last season. A .500 record and a playoff appearance is a laughable suggestion this year, but they should still win more than 20 games.
Clippers
For a while there, it looked as though the Clippers were climbing the ranks and snapping at the heels of the 8th seed in the West. They'll be back in the basement this year, and so the Clippers Circle of Life continues. If the Clippers sit still with their roster and coaching staff, they might be respectable. They'll look good at times, but the playoffs are out of reach for LA's "other team".
Nuggets
Melo should have a good rookie season, but that won't be enough for the Nuggets to succeed. They can put a decent starting five out on the floor, but they don't have much support from the bench. Even playing their best, they'll be contending for the top pick again in next year's draft lottery.
AWARDS
Most Valuable Player
Kevin Garnett/Tim Duncan
It's probably going to be a race between KG and Duncan again. It's rare for a player to threepeat as MVP (Bird did in the 80s), but if Duncan can keep the Spurs among the NBA's elite, he'll likely take home the honour for the third straight year.
Most Improved Player
Michael Redd
A contender last year, more minutes and a greater role with the Bucks might lead to Redd being named the NBA's Most Improved Player. Mike Dunleavy Jr. and teammate Troy Murphy should also be candidates for the award.
Sixth Man of the Year
Michael Redd/Bobby Jackson
If he doesn't start, Redd might take another award he might very well have won last season. Jackson stands a good chance of repeating as the league's top reserve though.
Rookie of the Year
LeBron James/Carmelo Anthony
Both LeBron and Melo are in a great position to have the best rookie season in years. I'm inclined to pick LeBron, but Melo is a close second.
Defensive Player of the Year
Ben Wallace
Barring the emergence of another defensive star, Ben Wallace is set to make the DPOY award his for the forseeable future. Ron Artest is a candidate, but if the Beast leads the league in rebounds and blocks, the award is his for the third straight year.
Coach of the Year
It's difficult to pick a Coach of the Year this early, but I predict that it won't be Phil Jackson. Jax has only won the award once, and that was when the Bulls went 72-10. Unless the Lakers break that record, the Zen Master won't be winning any hardware this year. With a roster like the Lakers' you're expected to win. Perhaps if Byron Scott can guide the Nets to another impressive season, he'll win COY honours.
Well, that just about wraps up my preview and predictions. Feel free to add your own or discuss mine.
