Official 2007 NBA Draft Thread

[Indy]

The T-Wolves won't pick Conley. They have their young point guard in Randy Foye. They are looking for frontcourt help.

[Sauru]

i gotta tell ya, i am really excited about this years draft. i dont know why i just think it will be a damn fun one to watch. alot of unknowns going in, aside from top 2 anything is questionable really.

[maes]

My complete guesses for the top half of the 1st round:

1. POR - Greg Oden
Durant may have worked out better, but #1 picks are about upside, not how they play right now. People bring up Olajuwon-Jordan, please Jordan was once-in-history player like Wilt. More reasonably, this smells more like 93 (Chris Webber vs Penny Hardaway) or 87 (David Robinson vs Scottie Pippen). In either case, i think most teams pick the big man.

2. SEA - Kevin Durant
Not much discussion here, hopefully Presti can bring in a good coach and get this team playing to its potential again for 2 more years in Seattle.

3. ATL - Al Horford
Conley may make more sense but having 2 picks they'll probably go big then small. They also said they're happy w/ their PGs and looking for interior defense.

4. MEM - Brandan Wright
West isn't GM but still advising on the draft and he loves bigs, loves athleticism, loves upside. Memphis has already invested in youth with Gay. Wright's been #3 for a very long time. Memphis was in the mindset they wanted a superstar before the lottery, i think they still try for one with a high risk pick.
I read he's been dropping, but that kind of talk always comes up. Like Alridge last year, who dropped all the way #2.
Bottom line raw, young 6' 10" kid with a 36" vertical and 7' 4" wingspan...will go high.

5. BOS - Joakim Noah --> Phoenix for Shawn Marion + ???
Now that KGs off the board my guess is that Boston trades this pick to Phoenix who have been forced to reduce salary. Quite honestly, a trio of Pierce (SG), Marion (SF), Jefferson (PF/C) isn't that bad and Boston won't tank next year.
Phoenix bases a lot of their push on fastbreaking bigs...Noah is perfect for that. He can't shoot, but that may be a good thing considering all the drama over touches in Phoenix. If Phoenix gets a 7' Dennis Rodman out of this, they'll be in heaven.
Phoenix has already worked out both Noah & Brewer, so i think this trade is well underway.

6. MIL - Corey Brewer
Bucks have said they're very fond of the Florida group and Brewer's the last one available, and the Bucks aren't as hurting for bigs as most lottery teams.

7. MIN - Spencer Hawes
Been reading they like Hawes quite a bit and they could theoretically be rebuilding, so Hawes' youth might not be an issue. I think Foye is a terrific up & comer, i think they draft big here.

8. CHA - Al Thornton
I thought Green might go here but apparently Charlotte hasn't worked him out for whatever reason. Thornton seems to be either dominating or non-existent in workouts...he's the next best wing unless you get risky w/ Thad Young.
Even w/ bad workouts and being older, hard to say no to a 6' 7" outside shooter with a 7' 1" wingspan and 41 inch vertical. As shown in numerous highlights this year, he can utilize his hops in gametime.


9. CHI - Yi Jianlian
Why doesn't he go earlier? Because the 3 teams above aren't on China's preferred list. Milwaukee asked to workout Yi and were actually refused. The message here is that if the wrong team drafts Yi, he'll stay in China. I think it's Boston or Chicago for Yi, and i believe Boston would rather trade for a proven star. And i don't think Memphis is a China preferred team either.
And if Paxson trades this pick, i think Yi has a higher value than most other picks at 9.

10. SAC - Mike Conley Jr
Pretty far drop for Mike but bigs always go first in my experience, the Boguts & Marvins get drafted before the Chris Pauls & Derons. I think Sac just takes him as a steal here.
I think he drops here at the lowest, or Milwaukee but i haven't heard much from Milwaukee about taking Mike. Mo is not a bad player, they liked him enough to trade TJ...the guy can triple double.
The other scenario is that Sac sticks to their workouts and draft disappointing Julian Wright, and Mike drops further.

11. ATL - Acie Law
They go for the PG here. Law cancelled his workouts a while back, meaning he has a promise from some team, my guess is ATL.
If Sac or another team doesn't take Mike Conley, he doesn't drop past here.

12. PHI - Jeff Green
The SF drop...like Josh Howard or Tayshaun Prince or Danny Granger. Philly can take almost anyone and have them contribute so i think they just grab best player here.

13. NOH - Thad Young
They're a young team they can afford to wait for a player to develop and have a lot of positions well manned after last year.

14. LAC - Javaris Crittenton
I think it's up between Young & Crittenton here. Clips like projects and aren't afraid to draft potential and actually have a very good eye for it. With Shaun's health up in the air i think they grab Javaris...he at least has SG height and more upside than Nick, and he's still very young.

15. DET - Rodney Stuckey
Detroit can do a lot of things here, but it's clear that internationals don't do well in the Pistons style/culture. And given Dumar's penchant for using veteran bigs (even on their last legs), i think they go for can-play-now guy.
Rodney did 24/5/6...just amazing #s even for weak competition. His shot is solid, he's a physical guy as shown by his rebounding. I think these attributes would lend him to get picked over Nick Young.

Drops:
Julian Wright
I know mocks have him going much higher, including #9 but i just don't see this.
For a guy being drafted on mainly potential & physical assets, his true height is 6' 6" not 6'8" or 6' 9". He weights 211, not 225 or 230. Basically, he won't be a PF. His tests ranked him 66 of 80...pretty low for a guy being drafted on athleticism. His workouts were poor...mainly because it was apparent he had no perimeter skills, not a good shooter, not a good ballhandler. For intangibles, Kansas performed well under expectation this year based on Wright & Rush. Before the season SI had them ranked #1.
I would have guessed he could go earlier but very few teams worked him out for whatever reason. He either goes in the top 7 (unlikely IMO) or he free falls to latter 1st round based on who's worked him out. Doesn't mean he'll be a bad player, SFs always drop, even very good ones like Josh Howard or Tayshaun.

Nick Young
A good player but i don't think he has the protoypical NBA game, a more old school college mid-range game.

[Ty-Land]

I honestly believe if Conley is there at 6 the Bucks will pick him. Only Horford would be above him at this stage, and there is little chance of him falling past 4.

Only a few days out and I really, really, really want to get Conley. He is the style of PG the Bucks need. A distributor, not another shooter. B. Wright and Yi scare the crap out of me in terms of bust potential, not to mention the fact that Wright is the only 200lbs PF to be drafted in the last decade (he will get abused inside). I like Green, love Horford and like J. Wright (but too much of a reach at 6 in my view). So please Basketball God's, if Horford is too much to ask for, give the Bucks Conley

[shadowgrin]

Oden displayed his quick wit when asked what would happen if Portland doesn't select him.

"I'd cry," he responded.

Kidding aside, he added: "I would be a little disappointed because it's starting to grow on me. The trees. I love it out here."

"You never know. Kevin's working out, he's working hard, too. Everybody else is working hard," Oden said. "You never know -- they might throw a curveball and draft somebody from Germany."

Oden is starting to become like Shaq with the quotes.
I hope he doesn't get fat like Shaq though.

[Its_asdf]

13. NOH - Thad Young
They're a young team they can afford to wait for a player to develop and have a lot of positions well manned after last year.

I read at some other forum that the Hornets were pretty unimpressed with Young.

[shadowgrin]

Maybe the Hornets are playing it cool.

[Its_asdf]

Well Bryon Scott was quote as saying something alone the lines of "We've seen these kinds of players before. Not interested." Something like that.

[maes]

Then i would guess they grab Nick or Rodney if they want someone who can play now versus potential.

I don't see where Byron thinks the team is going next season to be picking max ceiling players, however.

[Indy]

Well Bryon Scott was quote as saying something alone the lines of "We've seen these kinds of players before. Not interested." Something like that.

He said that before Thad worked out for the team. After the workout he said he was extremely impressed at the variety of things Thad could do. I have Thad going to New Orleans.

I would be very surprised if Boston keeps the number 5 pick. I think Phoenix is going to move up and grab that pick, probably sending Shawn Marion to Boston.

If the Celtics made that move and decided to take the win now risk with the East being at an all time low, they could include Al Jefferson in Kevin Garnett talks instead of the 5th pick and have a lineup next year that includes Shawn Marion, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.

[benji]

Everyone seems, aside from The X, to be overlooking Nick Fazekas...

Rockets, Spurs...perhaps Jazz? are probably looking at him...if you're doing a Mock all the way down to the end of the first round...I know that the Rockets are, and Spurs have to be...

Another good team ropes in yet another so-called "sleeper" pick...and we wonder why the bad teams stay down there forever.

[maes]

Peter Vecsey's column has some craziness, but is enlightening:

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06262007/sp ... vecsey.htm

Instead of mucking up a mock draft, Jim Clibanoff, President of ClibHoops, a scouting service subscribed to by most NBA teams, has provided his insights on the Top 20 prospects. He has watched each of these players multiple times throughout their careers.

9 - Jason Smith, F, Colorado State: Portable talent makes him serviceable at all frontcourt slots. Similar to Keith Van Horn (19.3 points, 7.7 boards first four years). Could also end up similar to Van Horn, who was oft-maligned at end of career.

11 - Acie Law, G, Texas A&M: Four years with Aggies a major plus. Most ready to orchestrate pro outfit, no disrespect to Mike Conley.

13 - Rudy Fernandez, G, Spain: Athletic, in need of strength. Plays like Brent Barry. Double-digit scorer in Spanish League - one of world's best outside NBA - since he was 18. Contrast his overseas success with many other young internationals yet to have accomplished much at high European level.

14 - Glen Davis, F, LSU: Best viewed outside proverbial box. Instead of discounting him for what he's not (svelte, bouncy, fast), a creative coaching staff should embrace him for individuality and find ways to optimize assets.

20 - Mike Conley, G, Ohio State: Player who benefited most from NCAA Tourney play. Projected as good pro. Lack of experience is minor worry. Shot needs upgrade.

[Sauru]

Well Bryon Scott was quote as saying something alone the lines of "We've seen these kinds of players before. Not interested." Something like that.

He said that before Thad worked out for the team. After the workout he said he was extremely impressed at the variety of things Thad could do. I have Thad going to New Orleans.

I would be very surprised if Boston keeps the number 5 pick. I think Phoenix is going to move up and grab that pick, probably sending Shawn Marion to Boston.

If the Celtics made that move and decided to take the win now risk with the East being at an all time low, they could include Al Jefferson in Kevin Garnett talks instead of the 5th pick and have a lineup next year that includes Shawn Marion, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.

i am almost positive that the 5th pick will be traded now. seems ainge is obsessed with getting rid of it, which imo is a pretty stupid idea considering he could land a very good player at 5 still. even if the celtics do draft 5th i wont be that excited cause i feel they will be drafting it for another team and by the end of the night the player will have moved on to another team.

i hope, they keep it. i want them to take the risk on Yi.

[[Q]]

i gotta tell ya, i am really excited about this years draft. i dont know why i just think it will be a damn fun one to watch. alot of unknowns going in, aside from top 2 anything is questionable really.

yeah me too. it'll be the first draft i get to sit down and watch in a long time.

and i read NO wasn't big on Thad Young before the workout but afterwards loved him. perhaps anything negative out there about Young are to try to scare away any potential suitors that pick before the hornets. He does fill a need especially when they had to sign and start Devin Brown, a decent player, last season with Peja out.

[mvpshaq32]

I hope the Warriors trade for a Top 5-10 pick and draft Yi. They have seen him work out and are very impressed. Plus the Bay Area has a large population of Asians. Only thing is, who can they trade?

[[Q]]

Jasikevicius would be the obvious choice. Ellis & JRich would have to be thrown in too. Plenty of expendable guys on that team.

[mvpshaq32]

I don't think they should trade off Ellis. The only person who could play PG left is Davis and he's had his history of injuries so they should try to work around that. Probably involve Biedrins or Patrick.

[Sauru]

the warrior are probably trying really hard to move up, using last years suprise success as a way to trade players who did good but are not really as good as them seem. i dont think the warriors will have the same kind of year next season as they did this one if they stand pat, infact without a move i think they miss the playoffs.

only thing is, so many teams are trying to trade up this year its kinda raising the ante alot for everyone, except for thr 5th pick where everyone in the world knows ainge is trying to unload it for some god awful reason

[scrub]

As much as I like doing my mock draft, they are pretty pointless. Picks will definitely be traded on this draft night, Boston and Charlotte's probably. Also teams tend to draft strangely, if I were Atlanta I would definitely draft Mike Conley. But anyway, here we go........

If no trades are made (which will not happen), here's what I think the teams will do.

1) Portland - Greg Oden
2) Seattle - Kevin Durant
3) Atlanta - Al Horford
4) Memphis - Mike Conley
5) Boston - Yi Jianlian
6) Milwaukee - Corey Brewer
7) Minnesota - Joakim Noah
8) Charlotte - Jeff Green
9) Chicago - Brandan Wright
10) Sacramento - Al Thornton
11) Atlanta - Acie Law
12) Philadelphia - Julian Wright
13) New Orleans - Nick Young
14) LA Clippers - Javaris Crittenton


Slipped: Spencer Hawes, Nick Young

[Sauru]

i have flip flopped a little on this but right now i think portland should swap picks with seattle and get something else in return, then take durant. i think in the long run durant will be the better choice. i could be wrong, i think oden is more of the sure thing, but i would take the risk and take durant. wont happen, the guy would lose his job if he passed on oden lol

[Indy]

Jasikevicius would be the obvious choice. Ellis & JRich would have to be thrown in too. Plenty of expendable guys on that team.

Huh? Sarunas is not a player of value, and he is not going to get his option picked up by Golden State anyways. He'll be out of the NBA most likely next year.

And then you say Ellis or JRich would have to be "thrown in"? One is an up and coming all-star who already is almost a 20 ppg scorer, and the other is their second best player who is a solid 19/5 guy. You want to just throw them in with the Warriors least valuable cheerleader?

[---]

Ellis > Yi
JRich > Yi

IMO Jason Richardson is so underrated it's not even funny. We were talking around 20/7/4 before his injury problems, which he rebounded from very well this season. Getting 7 boards from your shooting guard is pretty damn impressive.

[Its_asdf]

^Word Shannon.

People aren't as high on J-Rich after his surgery because they fear that his game relies to heavily on explosiveness. He obviously won't be as effective with his knee, but he's really refined his perimeter game to the point where he can be a really solid second banana to a team.

[Ty-Land]

Supposedly the Bucks have been offered J-Rich or Ellis in a package for the no. 6 pick. While I like both players, we don't need either with Redd and Williams.

Apparently, according to Dave Babcock (Scouting Director for the Bucks) the Suns offered a deal for number 6 which the Bucks laughed off. He also indicated that the Bucks big board, sans Oden and Durant of course looks like:

Horford
Conley
Yi
Green
Brewer
B. Wright
J. Wright
Thorton

So I assume that means that Conley won't fall past 6 if he is there, and that the Bucks will take Yi if on the board regardless of the fact his agents and Nike don't want him playing there. Coach K loves Horford and Conley. If Memphis pass up on Conley I assume they are going to throw a big deal at Mo Williams. Noah is definitely not on that table, with the Bucks saying the feeling is mutual regarding the fact he doesn't fit on this squad.

[Indy]

J-Rich for the 6th pick makes some sense. I do not believe for one second that the Warriors have offered Monta in any trades unless they are bringing in a guy name Kevin or Kobe.