just a question on yao

[Matthew]

In terms of rebounding, there can be lots of factors. Who your teamates are, who you have to guard (90% of the time if you guard the player who shoots, the rebound wont be in your direction) , what kind of pace your team (or the other team) is playing( a higher pace will create more shots, more shots means more misses, more misses means more rebounds)...

[kevC]

Rebounding percentage takes care of all those factors.

[NNpF]

Name one center in the Western conference that is worthy of being a starter besides Yao.

brad miller easily
the guy plays like a true center and doesn't shy away from contact.. he's stepped up his game like crazy with webber and stojakovic out. his numbers may not be as good as yao but remember he's not the #1 or #2 option either

Plays like a true center? You have GOT to be kidding me. True centers don't camp out at 20 feet for a spot up jump shots. I already posted 82games.com's more in-depth stats for Yao and Brad Miller in a previous thread. Yao is a better rebounder (yes, Brad's rpg is deceiving because he only grabs a low % of rebound oppurtunities and is consistently outrebounded by opponents), low post scorer (who draws double teams to boot), shot blocker, and deterrent. Yao benefits from being Chinese, but he truly does deserve every vote he gets.

As for other factors that may affect their numbers, remember that Yao is often not treated as a #1 or #2 option either. T-Mac is #1, and many times Sura and all the other guards ignore Yao so they can shoot themselves. Also, the Kings play at a faster pace than the Rockets, further inflating their numbers.

Brad Miller has just as much as an inside presence as Yao Ming does, it is just Sacramento's offense. If you saw him play in Indiana you would know if given if the ball in the low post Miller can score and bang inside.

Without looking at stats, Brad Miller has more hustle than Yao and is much more consistent. Yao can have one game where he gets 20-10 and another where he gets 10-5 and shoots poorly from the field.

But on the other hand, whether or not Miller gets 20-10 or 10-5 he is very consistent, and on nights where he does score around 10 points, that has to do with the amount of touches he gets, not how poorly he shoots from the field.

So yes, I would pick Miller over Yao because I am someone who stresses hustle, rebounding and consistency, and you can show me all the stats you want, until Yao Ming becomes a consistent player I will take Brad Miller over him anyday.

[Matthew]

Rebounding percentage takes care of all those factors.

Explain to me how rebound perecentage takes care of who the player is guarding when the shot goes up.

[kevC]

But they can only go so far. Is Ben Gordon a better 3 point shooter than Ray Allen? Is Brain Cook a better 3 point shooter than Michael Redd? If you were to go just by stats you would say so.

No, if you were an idiot, you would say so.

For one, the only statement you could make out using this year's stats is that Ben Gordon and Brian Cook have shot better on three pointers than Ray Allen and Michael Redd.

The problem is the sample size, 50+ games is clearly not a large enough sample size to determine any of this. Let's look at the last three years

Redd has done .391 (20.1% of FGA are 3PA), .350 (25.2) and .438 (42.8) the last three years

Allen has done .367 (36.6), .392 (37.2) and .377 (39.1)

Cook has .402 (48.1) and .000 (3.5)

Gordon, just for reference has .435 (29.5)

With the small sample size, both Cook and Gordon could have worse or better years after this...

However looking at three year averages...

Redd: .389 (29.7)
Allen: .379 (37.8)
Cook: .271 (33.5)

in this instance, Cook beats neither...

Stats themselves cannot be misleading, but people can be misleading by using them improperly...if DeSagana Diop hits one three out of one three in two minutes of one game, of course you can't take that and say "aha! best three point shooter ever"

But if you take the last three years, DeSagana won't be beating anybody

Of course, just by stating that Allen is better than Cook or Gordon doesn't make it so. Maybe Gordon and Cook actually ARE better three point shooters, we can't measure that. We can only measure the results of every time they attempt a three. And for this season, both Gordon and Cook have shot better than Redd and Allen.

Anyway, that rebounding question is a great one. It'd have to be studied. People seem to rebound better next to Cliff Robinson but the Sonics added Danny Fortson and Nick Collison, yet Evans increased his rebounding.

And nevermind about my claim about my rebounding percentage thing, it only covers your third point in rebounding.

But you could look at career trends to eliminate the first one and for the middle one, over a season that's negligble.

[Matthew]

Which is EXACTLY my point when it comes to statistics. People could come to the conculsion that Ben Gordon and Brian Cook are elite shooters in the league. What it really fails to take into account (especially for Brian Cook) is the type of defense shooters go up against. Ray Allen and Michael Redd are excellent shooters, but their % is somewhat low becuase they are the focus of the other teams defense. Like all statistics, it can deceptive...

... Which is what i was trying to say from the begining, There are other factors that can impact stats. The only statistic that is free of this is free throw shooting really.

Anyway, that rebounding question is a great one. It'd have to be studied. People seem to rebound better next to Cliff Robinson but the Sonics added Danny Fortson and Nick Collison, yet Evans increased his rebounding.

As you admit, there are exceptions and unexplained. So surely you also have to admit that stats and formulae's arent the "be all and end all" of the arguement about which is the superior rebounder: Miller or Yao. Right?

[kevC]

I never said they were. I just think statistics are the closest and most accurate medium to determine a players' ability because of its objective nature. So based on stats yes, I do believe Yao is the superior rebounder.

[kevC]

Brad Miller has just as much as an inside presence as Yao Ming does, it is just Sacramento's offense. If you saw him play in Indiana you would know if given if the ball in the low post Miller can score and bang inside.

Without looking at stats, Brad Miller has more hustle than Yao and is much more consistent. Yao can have one game where he gets 20-10 and another where he gets 10-5 and shoots poorly from the field.

But on the other hand, whether or not Miller gets 20-10 or 10-5 he is very consistent, and on nights where he does score around 10 points, that has to do with the amount of touches he gets, not how poorly he shoots from the field.

So yes, I would pick Miller over Yao because I am someone who stresses hustle, rebounding and consistency, and you can show me all the stats you want, until Yao Ming becomes a consistent player I will take Brad Miller over him anyday.

Actually, Brad Miller's more extreme. Just look at the game logs.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/gamelog?statsId=3599

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/gamelog?statsId=3305

Here's a little visual




What I did was, chart Yao and Miller's points and rebounds for every game. To even up the minutes I took what they got in that game and prorated it to 40 minutes. Then I subtracted the difference from their season per 40 minute average. And that's what's on the charts, the farther away from the x-axis, the farther away from his average.

As you can see Brad's is all over the place where Yao has several clumpings going on.

[Sauru]

i dont understand why people even make a big deal about yao being named a starter. i mean it happens all the time, players get voted in by fans and half the time they dont even belong at the game period. i would make a big deal about grant hill way before i complained about yao. also just cause he is 7'5" does not mean he should be the best rebounder ever. infact being 7'5" hurts his game imo. if he was 7'1" or 7'2" i think he would be alot better. most players that get to his height and beyond just suck up the joint. they cant move and it takes them ages to jump off the floor. i seriously think people jump on yao way too much. i mean if you wanna harp on a player why not pick players who get huge deals and suck ass. take howard for instance. what about a player like vince carter who admited to dogging it just to get traded. everyone loves him still, i say he is an asshole and i will never root for that bastard again. he basicly spit on the game of basketball and fans still voted him into the starting lineup.

[j.23]

In other words, you want to ignore the evidence and go by your own unsupported perceptions of him.

unsupported perceptions? i've seen the guy play heaps of times, i KNOW how he plays otherwise i wouldn't be arguing on his behalf. and, if by evidence you mean stats then you might as well say bruce bowen is a chump on defense going by these eye popping statistics:

04-05: .74 steals per game, .47 blocks per game

yet somehow this guy is highly touted as one of the best defenders in the league.

thats cause he forces guys off the ball, keeps guys from getting balls, or forcing them to miss shots even though he doesn't block them or whatnot.

thats the point i was trying to make - stats can mean absolutely nothing.

[kevC]

BPG and SPG aren't true defensive stats; points allowed is.

[Doobie]

I guess some people forgot that the all star game is a popularity contest . a guy not from america that is over 7'5 is obviously gonna get alot of votes just because of his size and nationality

[Matthew]

So why didnt gheorghe mureason get into the asg?

[j.23]

BPG and SPG aren't true defensive stats; points allowed is.

ok there naismith.

[NNpF]

BPG and SPG aren't true defensive stats; points allowed is.

Points allowed is a good stat to show how good a player is as a defender, but that's not everything.

A player could score 25 points but does that mean he was poorly defended? No. Because it's not how many points the player your guarding gets, it's how hard he has to work for those points.

We all know that there are some players that no matter what you do they will still manage to put up 20-25 points a game.

But guys like Bowen, Artest, Kirilenko etc. make those players work for those points, contest their shots, foul them hard etc.

[kevC]

You know what, you guys are right. Stats don't mean anything and Yao is shit. I mean OMFG he's like 7-6 but doesn't score 40 ppg and 20rpg and shoots only like 54% from the field. I mean seriously, he should be like the best playa evah because he's like 7-6 and all the Chinese like vote for him! Who cares if the Rockets are winning? Wins and losses are stats and stats are meaningless! I mean like tonight he like shot 8-12 from the field but he sucks! He should be shooting like 20-12 because he's 7-6 and all the Chinese voted for him! But then again stats are irrelevant so Brad Miller's sooo much better! He like gets more rpg even though he's not like 7-6 and the Chinese don't vote for him!

[Matthew]

Discalimer: I know this post is spam, but no more than the one above me.

[kevC]

[air gordon]

lol there are like 3 different discussions in this thread...

imo you can't place too much credence into stats or you'll turn into ben bailey

where's that one guy.. i forgot his username... but he studies statistics for a living or his work is statistics related... he had a very thorough explanation as to why not to place too much credence in statistics, especially sports related

lol gheorghe mureason

[Fresh8]

man.... stop hating on yao because hes AZN!

(Jokes)

[JimRaynor55]

In other words, you want to ignore the evidence and go by your own unsupported perceptions of him.

unsupported perceptions? i've seen the guy play heaps of times, i KNOW how he plays otherwise i wouldn't be arguing on his behalf. and, if by evidence you mean stats then you might as well say bruce bowen is a chump on defense going by these eye popping statistics:

04-05: .74 steals per game, .47 blocks per game

yet somehow this guy is highly touted as one of the best defenders in the league.

You KNOW how he plays? How do you know, if you choose to ignore stats? Unless something is expressed quantitatively (stats) then no, you don't know. I can say that I "know" Kobe Bryant is the best player in the NBA, based on what I see, without bothering to back it up in any way. Does that make it true? What you're giving me here is an opinion, nothing more.

kevC, I have to commend you on the posts you've made in this thread. It's nice to see someone else who understands the importance of objective evidence, and that while stats may be misinterpreted, they don't lie and are a heck of a lot better than opinion.

[JimRaynor55]

Stats can be misleading though. Miller has Webber alongside him getting rebounds. Yao has Juwan Howard. Webber is getting 9.8 boards, howard 5.5.

Webber is a better rebounder than Howard, but you forgot to mention that he plays almost 10 more mpg. This is also an example of using stats in a misleading way.

[JimRaynor55]

How can ANYONE say that Yao is more worthy of starting than Amare?

I hope you're not one of those people who are overly impressed with Amare this season just because of his high ppg and FG%, and the Suns' record. Amare is a terrible rebounder, and defender, and not the shot blocker that Yao is. I'm not getting into who is better (Amare certainly is scoring better this season), but Amare's not nearly as good as a lot of people think he is this season.

Yao was hurting the rockets when their strategy was to get him the ball and run the offense through him.

That's because the Rockets didn't have good 3pt shooters to space the floor for him, nor did they move and cut to the basket while Yao was double teamed. Their game plan was to dump the ball into Yao and stand around while he battle double and triple teams.

It wasnt untill Tmac started to take over did Houston start to play well, and I think that sums it up. Yao cannot carry a team. Yao is nothing more than a role player, and doesnt deserve to be in the top echelon of nba players at the moment. It's just that simple.

A role player scores 18.5 ppg in limited minutes? T-Mac is the leader, but to say that Yao's a mere role player is exxageration. And like Amare can carry a team either? When the Suns lost Nash for a few games, they lost every one of them, and Amare averaged under 40% from the field. Last season, when Amare had the chance to truly carry a team (after the Marbury trade) the Suns were terrible.

[j.23]

You KNOW how he plays? How do you know, if you choose to ignore stats?

watching someone play tells you a whole lot more than statistics in itself. if stats were so good at measuring the magnitude of a player then why do we have so many NBA scouts flying to europe and asia to watch someone play? not everything revolves around numbers.

[Drex]

I'm kinda lost now. Can somebody explain me what are we arguing (sp?) now?
That Brad should be in the ASG and not Yao, that Yao is a role-player, that Brad is a better than Yao, or all of the above