Good news, Heat fans!

[shadowgrin]

I want Wade to have a good season too just to stop Harden from being delusional and for Wade to grow his balls back to be the man in Miami again.

I'd rank a healthy Hornets team and sane Lance Stephenson to beat a healthy Heat.
A healthy Hawks team too with Al Horford since they play like Spurs-lite.
Same with Lionel Hollins and healthy Brook Lopez and Nets.
Even Pistons can beat the Heat just for SVG alone even if the Pistons have the same core of last season's roster.

[NovU]

I guess that's what makes this upcoming season more exciting than usual. We just don't know what to expect. Everyone has different views and predictions.

The Cavs are the top team by default in East. Second to eighth is really anybody's game.

And let's not forget about the Raptors and John Wall's Wizard. Throw them into a mix and we will actually have some fun watching East.

[_Steve_]

Cavs have to become a team first. Think about the growing pains in Miami when Bosh, Wade and LeBron joined forces. Same will most likely happen in Cleveland.

[skoadam]

Yeah but think about all of this great pure shooters, Love, Waiters,Miller,Jones,Irving, (what if Ray Ray 2?)...and point forward LBJ, Cavs can play Spurs basketball very soon. This team will shoot 3 like crazy. And whats more scary, 3 players with +10 rebounds per game- this is crazy and how can i like LBJ?

[air gordon]

I'm interested to see if Bosh now at 30yrs old will return to Toronto Bosh. does anyone feel confident he can return to playing high minutes and post good numbers (and still at an efficient rate)??? Is Bosh a legit #1 option on a winning team?

it's nice to hear Wade say he's healthy but miami limitared/manageed his minutes like last year and he was shit in the finals. the heat don't have the luxury of doing that again next year

Bosh and to some extent Deng will be forced to shoulder a lot for the heat this year

[_Steve_]

Good thing is, Wade does not have to play in the '14-'15 finals...

[NovU]

I'm interested to see if Bosh now at 30yrs old will return to Toronto Bosh. does anyone feel confident he can return to playing high minutes and post good numbers (and still at an efficient rate)??? Is Bosh a legit #1 option on a winning team?

it's nice to hear Wade say he's healthy but miami limitared/manageed his minutes like last year and he was shit in the finals. the heat don't have the luxury of doing that again next year

Bosh and to some extent Deng will be forced to shoulder a lot for the heat this year

Great questions.

Here are my thoughts.

Fortunately Bosh's durability has been impressive so far in his career. Notion is that he'll be worth the max for at least next couple seasons. Last one or two years of his contract will likely become a burden though.

Bosh's only a first option when Wade rests. Bosh has never averaged more pts than Wade in his career including last season even though this was Wade's worst scoring season since his rookie year. There were only two seasons when Wade averaged less than 20 points. First was his rookie season and second was last year under GP/MP management. He still played 53 regular seasons games for 33 minutes per game, then 20 more games in the playoffs. Note that this was season there was absolutely no reason to play him more as 2nd seed was guaranteed and boredom set in after 3 trips to the Finals, only thing that mattered was the playoffs. Wade certainly could and would have played more on needs.

As for quality of play we got from Wade, there definitely was regression from previous season. But that was probably to be expected with less relying on his shoulder. He was still a star level performer though. If he can rewind time and play like a superstar Wade from two or three seasons ago, the Heat are in good shape.

You are probably looking at 40-45 combined points per game from Bosh and Wade. That I believe is enough for the Heat to make for a decent push in East. If you look at pre-LBJ Heat team from 2010, you notice Wade produced 13 winshare to go with 47 wins as a lone star on the team. That's with Haslem or Dorrell Wright as second best player. Next season, I expect Wade and Bosh to be a 17-20 winshare combo with solid effort from Deng and few others. I am guessing 45 wins is not a farfetched outlook.

[Andrew]

The Heat have a good enough roster to still be relevant, particularly in the weaker Eastern Conference. Depending on how everyone else in the East performs, how healthy they can remain, and how capable Bosh, Wade, and a couple of the new guys are at filling some of the void left by LeBron, top four and a second round appearance isn't out of the question. I think you've at least got to give them that.

However, Magic's prediction seems...over-optimistic, given the circumstances.

[Sauru]

Cavs have to become a team first. Think about the growing pains in Miami when Bosh, Wade and LeBron joined forces. Same will most likely happen in Cleveland.

i dont think the growing pains will be as bad. with miami lebron was coming into wades town and all 3 were being seen as a trio. this is different. this is lebrons town from the jump and both love and irving are the support. also lebron is bringing in as many role players as he can that he is already familiar and comfortable with.


as for the heat, i feel its going to become painfully obvious just how bad of a coach they got leading that team. imo miami makes the playoffs in the bottom half and at best make it to game 6 in round 1

[NovU]

as for the heat, i feel its going to become painfully obvious just how bad of a coach they got leading that team. imo miami makes the playoffs in the bottom half and at best make it to game 6 in round 1

I love you too.

Confirms there's nobody that makes my day better than Sauru does.

[Rokyn]

The East is definitely weaker in terms of the usual teams we see....but there are other teams on the rise such as the Hornets, Hawks, Raptors, Wizards, and maybe even the Pistons. I honestly can't see the Heat being a top 3 seeded team in the East. The reason for that is because they can't possibly depend on Dwyane Wade anymore. His knees are undependable, he has lost quickness, and all the wear and tear is finally catching up to him. He is though a great second option now...but as a first? He's just not healthy enough to hold the shoulders with Bosh and the rest. Bosh is good offensively but his rebounding will have to step up big time now that LeBron is gone. Deng plays better when he plays off teammates and not when he has to create for himself. A lot rests on how their offensive system is and how effective it will be without LeBron in the picture and if players can step up their game. And a frontcourt of Bosh and McRoberts is definitely not appealing for defense and it will definitely have to be addressed.

There is though a possibility even though it's very low....that Wade could return to being a 23+ scorer in the league but he would need some type of miracle workout ala like he did with Tim Glover back in 2008 and he would need to further develop his shot in order to make up for his lost quickness. If he can find a away to avoid the constant knee pain and develop a better shot...then he will be back for sure. I only hope for the best for him.

EDIT:

I don't know about you guys but Wade played great pre-finals in the playoffs. He did a great job especially against the Pacers. Once he got to the Finals is when everything went down hill.

[air gordon]

So wade should be the top option? Without the save him for the playoff strategy, there is good reason he will not hold up.

Maybe if we were talking about 2010 bosh and wade id be inclined to agree they will ok with their minutes be going up big-time and that will remain highly efficient

[Rokyn]

So wade should be the top option? Without the save him for the playoff strategy, there is good reason he will not hold up.

Well...he and Bosh are probably the only ones who can actually create their own shots efficiently and create for others on offense. I wouldn't want to have Deng, Granger, or Chalmers be my 1st option at all. So who else to give it to? The only logical answer is Wade. Or a inside>outside offense with Bosh as the first option. If Wade goes down..then they have to come up with different strategies that involve more passing and more ball rotation because you don't sign Deng and Granger to create shots, you sign them to shoot shots and play off certain plays and players.

[Sauru]

as for the heat, i feel its going to become painfully obvious just how bad of a coach they got leading that team. imo miami makes the playoffs in the bottom half and at best make it to game 6 in round 1

I love you too.

Confirms there's nobody that makes my day better than Sauru does.

i am of the belief that miami still has some good talent on that team. i have zero faith in their coach

[SoF'nAwesome]

Except Bulls, Pacers, Raptors and the obvious one, I think Miami still has the ability to beat all the other Eastern Conference teams in the playoffs.

Good coach bad coach, One knee no knee Wade. Bosh surely has that scoring mentality in him and Deng and Granger(if healthy) might make Heat a "good" team after all.

[NovU]

i am of the belief that miami still has some good talent on that team. i have zero faith in their coach

I don't agree with your coaching stuff as it'll be more of the roster deficiency that will be a problem in most shortcomings. But what you said about first round exit conveys much realism. I just couldn't settle with that because you know I'm a Heat fan. Anything less than second round for me will be a fail. Otherwise I will be a happy man.

[air gordon]

I don't agree with your coaching stuff as it'll be more of the roster deficiency that will be a problem in most shortcomings.

this goes against your previous statement of

Don't forget defense is system first and individual ability second.

http://forums.nba-live.com/viewtopic.php?f=21&t=95393&start=100

[NovU]

Sauru was speaking about Spo in general, not just D.




As for what I am saying about the Heat and Spo, refer to...
http://wagesofwins.com/2011/07/20/the-coach-is-wrong/



Defense is far more complex topic btw and we've been over this. Michael Jordan is widely regarded as one of the best perimeter defenders in history. But check out the Bulls' defensive rating while he was briefly retired. Anyone would find the difference mind boggling. At the time I was just saying it's important to not to weigh too much on individual defense ability when it largely remains to be a team activity.

[air gordon]

So we should expect the heat to maintain the level of defense they played last year

So wade should be the top option? Without the save him for the playoff strategy, there is good reason he will not hold up.

Well...he and Bosh are probably the only ones who can actually create their own shots efficiently and create for others on offense. I wouldn't want to have Deng, Granger, or Chalmers be my 1st option at all. So who else to give it to? The only logical answer is Wade. Or a inside>outside offense with Bosh as the first option. If Wade goes down..then they have to come up with different strategies that involve more passing and more ball rotation because you don't sign Deng and Granger to create shots, you sign them to shoot shots and play off certain plays and players.

I think if you believe bosh can return to Toronto bosh, he should be the top option. Based on wades injury history and age, he can't be relied on to be the top dog consistently.