by SkyLine03LT on Sun May 01, 2011 8:58 pm
I think the Heat will come out with more fire as they lost the season series 3-1 and the Sixers have given them the business the last 3 games of their 1st round series, while the Celtics swept the Knicks (I wouldn't say easily, at least not for the first two games). I think they gained more confidence and not motivation, which would have been the case if it was a 6 or 7 game series like most predicted, and I believe motivation is more important, especially in the playoffs.
I'm sure coach Spo is gonna start Mario and Joel, but the key for the Heat in the series is how the bench is gonna perform. There will be ups and downs for the big three, no doubt. But if the C's couldn't find ways to handle Carmelo alone in game 2, it will be a whole lot easier for the big three to rack up numbers than for Carmelo. LeBron ain't no Jeffries, that's for sure.
Like I said, the key for Miami will be the play of the supporting cast, whether Mike Miller can earn his money and Mike Bibby can start making those treys again. If they, and the rest of the role players can't take advantage of their opportunities, the series belong to the Celtics.
The key for Boston will be the return of Shaq. With the Perkins Trade C's lost their interior presence, that discouraged most players from attacking their basket. Jermaine O'neal is a skilled player but not bigger and stronger than most centers in the league. That's not enough size for James not to try dunking on his head again. Not to say he won't get blocked back down to the ground again... But Shaquille will fill up that post and the big three will think twice before attacking the rim, Shaq and Howard are about the only two players, who can turn anyone into Jared Jeffries.
While everyone is talking about the return of Haslem and how it's a big deal for the Heat, the reality says different. And as much as I love Udonis and what he brings to the table, he hasn't played in months, and it's a gamble whether he will score more for the Heat or for the Celtics, so I don't count on it. Same with Shaq, but now it's more about his presence than his skill, he's not Shaq of the old anymore...
If the Celtics will come out victorious in the series, they will need their own big three (not talking about Rondo yet) to come up big. Everyone is talking about the greatness of Celtics defense, but they forget that Miami is a defensive team, and one of the best at it. Just about every Heat player can match up 1 on 1 against their Celtic matchup (apart from Bosh-KG), furthermore, Miami is playing team defense better and better, and while they have long ways to go compared to Boston's team defense, it is a best of 7 game series, not 82. In the end, it's all about the effort. Can the aging Celtics outrun the young guns?
The X-Factor for the series will be (you probably guessed) the play of Rajon Rondo. While the defense is the most important thing in basketball, offense is nearly as important, especially against this Miami team. It will take the heat 2 seconds to score off turnovers, so he'd better be ready to take care of the ball. The way I see it, if the Heat will put D Wade on Rondo, Wade will be smart enough not to let Rondo control the flow of the game, resulting in Heat winning the series. However, Miami's point guards might not be as smart, resulting in an opposite result.
In the end, I say the Heat are very much prepared for the Celtics, and Boston might not realize it. It all comes down to little things, and we'll see it all this afternoon. I take Heat in 7.
