Curry Vs. Paul

[Mandich]

One is the MVP, the other is being called the best at his position for years-

They play different styles on winning teams.

They are 1a and 1b and the others are not even close.

Let's play a game: I provide stats, and will also describe the ones I think not everyone knows, just to keep reading it easier to comprehend. I'm bored. You discuss. All opinions are welcomed. Who is better by your standards ?



I've chosen to go with per 36 since I find it most fair.

Some of you probably won't be able to see the last column. It's Assist to Turnover ratio.

Curry Scores 2.5
Paul Scores 4.4



1st Column is Offensive +/-

-It is defined as the box score estimate of the offensive points per 100 possesions a player contributed a league-average player, translated to an average team.

2nd Column is Defensive +/-

-It is basically the same as OBPM, just on defense.

3rd Column is Value over Replacement Player.

-Name says it all.

4th Coulm is Player Impact Estimate

-Shows a players impact on the overall game.

Ows is OFFENSIVE Win shares, with Dws being DEFENSIVE win shares.

But let's really make things interesting.

Here is a list of 10 of the 20 best Point guards in the league today, excluding Curry and Paul. The averages shows are their PER GAME averages, not their per 36.



I'm just showing their stats so people see I'm not making this up.

Based on the stats of the 10 players above, league averages for above average point guards are the the following:



Points, Rebounds, Assists, Turnovers, FG%, FGA. All same as the stats above.

Why am I doing this. This shows how these guys fare on a everyday basis.

How do their numbers change when the play against Curry and Paul ?



If you have a few hours to spare, you can check everything on BasketballRefference.

Let the discussion begin.

STATS ARE FROM THIS SEASON ONLY!

[benji]

Assist to Turnover Ratio is meaningless.

Chris Paul is the greatest normal sized point guard in NBA history.

Stephen Curry is really awesome but it'll be surprising if his career body of work winds up looking like Paul's.

He might end up the best shooting point guard ever though.

[NovU]

Why is assist to TO ratio meaningless? It's a number that depicts their ball handling/passing skills. CP3 arguably has the best handle ever.


Also to note, Curry's DRtg is inflated because of luxury to play with great defensive players. Having said that Curry was still the better this year. His shooting alone is historical. Not only you might be seeing best shooting point guard ever but he simply could be the best shooter ever.

[Mandich]

I never said all stats should be taken with the same amount of importance.

It's unfair to compare their career body of work as Curry has hahd injury problems and is still too fresh in the league compared to Paul, that's why I'm trying to limit it to heir current production.

I agree Paul has an impact on franchises a few other point guards had.

[benji]

Why is assist to TO ratio meaningless? It's a number that depicts their ball handling/passing skills.

No, it isn't. Why is it a ratio? Why are only assists involved?

[bowdown]

What's crazy is Paul is averaging 13 assists and 1 turnover a game for the past 5 games.....Holy fuck...

And benji, the more you try to do with the ball, the more likely you make mistakes. Take Aldridge for example. He gets a lot of touches on offense but his responsibility is mostly to just create for himself with very little dribbling. So he averages less than 2 turnovers a game consistently. A guy like Paul has to dribble all the time while getting his teammates involved and also score when he has the chance. He scores and assists with very few mistakes as turnovers can be pretty back-breaking in the NBA.

[Mandich]

Reminds me of the time when Kobe had a couple of double-doubles in a row and bandwagons started calling him Magic Bryant. Lol. Even Lin was good on a particular stretch.

It really doesn't make sense to point out a PF has to do less of a team-wise job with the ball than a point guard. There is a reason Aldridge is a post forward and Paul a playmaker.

I believe benji was aiming that Ast/TO ration is too general, much like FG% for players shooting efficiency.

There should be a stat that takes a players whole offense into consideration, not just his assists. I don't know about such a stat, that's why I went with the ratio.

TOV% is just a turnover per 100 possesions that shows us nothing about the situations in which a players turns the ball over.

[NovU]

What benji's implying is that Turnover Per Possession Use is rather the better between the two. AST/TO ratio is restrictive because it's assuming Turnover occurs only when attempting to pass/assist.

But AST/TO ratio isn't too bad because It is true higher assist guys tend to average more TOs.

[bowdown]

That's what I'm saying a playmaker averaging high assists and low turnovers is impressive more than a guy who has the ball a lot but isn't looking to create for other as much as Paul. You're fixating too much on the Aldridge/PF part.

[[Q]]

Turnovers aren't a good measure of someone's handles as you get them if you pass to your teammate who messes up a play or get tossed the ball with 1 second left on the shot clock or other uncontrollable circumstances

It is impressive that cp3 keeps his turnover numbers low while having the ball in his hands that much

[NovU]

There should be a stat that takes a players whole offense into consideration, not just his assists. I don't know about such a stat, that's why I went with the ratio.

Which probably is ORtg.

Minor issue with individual ORtg is that it treats both Turnover and Shot Attempt equally, when the latter is advantageous.

That's what I'm saying a playmaker averaging high assists and low turnovers is impressive more than a guy who has the ball a lot but isn't looking to create for other as much as Paul. You're fixating too much on the Aldridge/PF part.

I got you the first time. I was just adding on your comment.




Going back to the topic, generic advanced stats suggest this simple theory. CP3 has been extremely efficient and is better than Curry in this regard, backed up by ORtg. However Curry does more on slightly less efficient terms, thus the higher PER than CP3.

***WinShare has Curry as the winner but you can ignore it. CP3 actually has the better WinShare in reality if you ignore Defensive WinShare which you have to, because Curry just IS NOT the better defender between the two. While Curry has played his defensive role nicely for his team, CP3 played more defense for the worse defensive team.

It's clear CP3 can't go Westy or Kobrick like and hoist up 40 shots per game to get 50 points. It's just not his game. Curry imo has been somewhat in-between(CP3 & Kowesty) this year. The team had a lot of good players but their success largely relied on needs of Curry's individual prowess, hence my vote to Curry over CP3 just for this season. At the same time, I wouldn't say people that claim CP3 was the better are wrong.

[Mandich]

Nobody is saying Curry is the better defender. Paul is the best defensive star point guard since prime Kidd.

The thing is how a person perceives stats. You could argue Curry gets away with a lot of thing because of the fact he has a great defensive team. You could argue that because of the great defensive team people overlook how good of a defender he is becoming. I certainly wouldn't know since all I've watched of GSW this year are the highlights.

Curry's offensive prowess. It's undeniable he is fantastic this year, but give the Warriors offense(roster) some credit. 5 of the Warriors 15 losses came when Curry scored less than 20. they have a solid backup scoring option in Thompson, and backup playmaking in Iguodala.

I'd still give the regular season edge to Curry. As much as I personally prefer Paul, this regular season he's the MVP for a reason.

That's why the playoffs are great.

Curry has to show he is a great defender.
Paul can make up for letting Lillard get 18 boards on him.
LeBron can defend his best player on the planet title.
Refs can trigger yet another rig theory.

BTW who can challenge Paul for All-NBA 2nd team? Harden and Curry are locks for the 1st one, Westbrook is a lock for the 2nd one.

[NovU]

Why would you come at me with "Nobody is saying Curry is the better defender.", I was just presenting my pov, not countering yours or anything. I don't get this aggression. Explain.



And to add more on Curry's defense:

Curry just doesn't have tools to become a superior defender like Paul, he'd simply suck in CP3's role on defense but then no sane team would employ such system with Curry. What Curry did well for the Warriors this year is staying hidden and do whatever he did stealing and risking to be somehow a plus presence on defense. But he is not by any means a significant factor in Warriors' defensive scheme. One great thing about Warriors is that they can throw Klay, Iggy, Green, and Barnes at opponent's perimeter threat each and every night. All these guys are top class defenders, a nightmare defensive rotation. Then you have Bogut who is a dominant paint guy backing them up.

[Mandich]

Agression ?

smh.

Agreed, he doesnt't have the tools bo be an elite 2-way player. But he is really a super offensive oriented player, and the Warriors built their teams perfectly to compliment his skillset. It's very hard to build around a point guard as he really has an unique opportunity to win it all this year.

[benji]

And benji, the more you try to do with the ball, the more likely you make mistakes. Take Aldridge for example. He gets a lot of touches on offense but his responsibility is mostly to just create for himself with very little dribbling. So he averages less than 2 turnovers a game consistently. A guy like Paul has to dribble all the time while getting his teammates involved and also score when he has the chance. He scores and assists with very few mistakes as turnovers can be pretty back-breaking in the NBA.

Which is why A/TO doesn't tell you much of anything useful.

Aldridge using possessions without turning it over is probably a more valuable skill than Wall's assisting at three times the rate of Aldridge per turnover.

Minor issue with individual ORtg is that it treats both Turnover and Shot Attempt equally

It doesn't.

[NovU]

It does. Both mark the end of possession.

[Andrew]

The way I see it, A/TO is a noteworthy and interesting statistic, but it isn't the be-all, end-all. In other words, Muggsy Bogues having a better A/TO ratio than Magic Johnson does not mean he's actually the superior player/point guard, but it's still a feather in Muggsy's cap.

[benji]

What's noteworthy or interesting about it? OR/TO would be more valuable.

It does. Both mark the end of possession.

No, they don't. Missed shots have rebounds.

[NovU]

Are you talking TEAM or INDIVIDUAL ORtg. AFAIK individual ORtg cares not whether it is via TO or Shot Attempt, they both mean end of possession.

[benji]

I looked just for you even though I knew there was no way Dean would have done something so dumb and team offensive rebounding is definitely in the ORtg formula in the back of Basketball on Paper.

The formulas for both are actually the same in theory except for the team ones you don't need 95% of the formula because you aren't estimating four other players along with the individual you're measuring. You just have the teams data so all those parts of the formula have been "calculated" for you.

[Andrew]

What's noteworthy or interesting about it? OR/TO would be more valuable.

I think most (if not all) stats are somewhat noteworthy and/or of some interest in their own right, but as you said, not necessarily valuable or particularly useful/relevant.

I'd say it has some use in comparing players who have similar roles as far as facilitating their teammates, albeit as a rough estimate/overview of how well they're taking care of the ball and how on the money they are with their passes. It has some value or significance as a feat, if a player is racking up a lot of assists and has the ball in their hands a lot, but is hardly turning it over. As far as it proving this or that, or just how valuable it is as a statistic...I'm not disagreeing with you there. I see it as a feat worthy of being mentioned, at least in passing, but not a statistic that's definitive proof of anything or intrinsically valuable as far as rating and ranking players.

[shadowgrin]

I looked just for you even though I knew there was no way Dean would have done something so dumb and team offensive rebounding is definitely in the ORtg formula in the back of Basketball on Paper.

Shut up james, you're dumb.
Stop with your pretentious stats, you can't even hack it as a contributor for boxscoregeeks in the comments section.

[NovU]

I don't get this benji. I am having hard time understanding this logic.

Both ORtg/DRtg are possession based. How do you take Protection/Creation of possession into the account. You are basically rewarding/punishing team effort onto individual performance.

Or is it just the individual rebounding that's taken into the context such as CP3's individual rebounding skills to the ORtg formula. I think it's entirely different matter between rebounding and possession.

[Patr1ck]

Curry has not been putting up MVP numbers. He's just been the media's new favorite superstar. Chris Paul has slightly better numbers than him while scoring less. I don't think either of them are MVP's.

[Mandich]

Curry has not been putting up MVP numbers. He's just been the media's new favorite superstar.

Lolwut.

He has better better numbers than Rose, Bryant, Nash when they won. His team has a better record.

He has better number than Harden. His team has the better record.

Who should be the MVP ?

Mediahype my ass.