High Schoolers in the NBA & The Age Limit

Since the season is still a few weeks away, and another recent discussion reminded me of the topic, I thought I'd bring it up again. What's your stance on allowing players to be drafted out of high school, and the current age limit of 19?

Personally, I think it had good intentions, but I believe it's ultimately been an overreaction. Also, with the D-League now firmly established, I feel it's an outdated idea. I tend to agree with Billy Donovan's point about it punishing high school players, and not necessarily benefiting the college game at all, when players can still be one and done. Of course, you could raise the age limit further, but is that really necessary? Then you've got situations like Derrick Rose, where shady stuff is happening to ensure that players can get into college, because it's either that or play overseas.

The age limit is something that's been done for the welfare of the players, and to protect teams from making a poor investment, but I think that's less of an issue now that an established minor league is in place. Furthermore, I'm not sure that players who have made the leap has necessarily done that badly. Taking a look at the list of NBA high school draftees, and also adding in the players who weren't drafted immediately out of high school but didn't play college ball - guys like Moses Malone and Shawn Kemp - do the failures outnumber the players who found success?

Let's break them down into a few categories:

Highly Successful

As successful as anyone coming out of college, and in some cases, up there with the best of the best.

Moses Malone
Shawn Kemp
Kevin Garnett
Kobe Bryant
Jermaine O'Neal
Tracy McGrady
Amar'e Stoudemire
LeBron James
Dwight Howard
Connie Hawkins

Quite Successful

Not quite the top tier, but still up there as far as being success stories.

Andrew Bynum (also could possibly be ranked higher, if not for his injuries)
Tyson Chandler
Rashard Lewis
Darryl Dawkins
Josh Smith
Monta Ellis
Louis Williams

Moderately Successful

Usually have enjoyed lengthy and respectable careers, or in some cases, found some measure of success before injuries struck.

J.R. Smith
Al Jefferson
Stephen Jackson (kind of on the border, but he's tough to rank higher because he wasn't an All-Star)
Brandon Jennings
Darius Miles (fell short of expectations, injuries ruined his career, but he had some serviceable years before that)
Al Harrington (solid, lengthy career)
DeShawn Stevenson (hung around for a bit, key contributor on a championship team)
Kendrick Perkins
Eddy Curry
Shaun Livingston
Gerald Green
C.J. Miles
Kwame Brown (stuck around for 12 seasons, some were respectable, if below expectations)
Andray Blatche
Amir Johnson

Average at best

Nothing spectacular, probably a bit of a disappointment, but college likely wouldn't have made a difference anyway. Had (or having) a decent run, finding or could find a spot on the roster year-to-year.

Sebastian Telfair
Dorell Wright
Travis Outlaw
Desagana Diop
Martell Webster
Bill Willoughby

Flops

Didn't last, not cut out for the NBA. Complete flops.

James Lang
Ndudi Ebi
Korleone Young
Jonathan Bender
Lloyd Daniels
Thomas Hamilton
Jackie Butler

Disasters

Completely crashed and burned.

Robert Swift
Leon Smith

Never played in the NBA/Too early to tell/Too early to really count

Satnam Singh Bhamara (just Drafted this year, yet to play in the NBA)
Emmanuel Mudiay (just Drafted this year, yet to play in the NBA)
Ricky Ledo (a rookie last season)
Jeremy Tyler (possibly fair to call him a bust, but he's still young, he could pull a Hassan Whiteside on us)
Ousmane Cisse (never played in the NBA)
Ricky Sánchez (never played in the NBA)
Tony Kappen (played in the 40s)
Connie Simmons (played in the 40s)
Joe Graboski (played in the 40s)
Reggie Harding (played in the 60s)
Latavious Williams

Now...

Now that's my take on all those players, and I'd concede that you could argue about the placement of a decent number of them, depending on how you define "flop", and how you rate a player who performed below expectations and hype, but still had a solid career. That said, I think it's fair to say that all the players I've placed in the Average category or higher avoided being complete failures. If you want to lump the Average category in with the flops and failures, that still leaves a healthy amount of players who were respectably successful.

In fact, putting a number on it as far as my ratings are concerned, it's 38 who are average or better, and nine complete failures (11 excluded). In other words, around 81% of them have been able to find some measure of success in the league and stick around. Stick the Average group with the flops, and that's still 68% who went on to have respectable careers. Either way, 36% have had careers of particular significance.

Again, it depends how you define "flop". It's fair to call players like Darius Miles and Kwame Brown flops, because of their Draft position and the inherent expectations, but they also managed to stick around for a while and had some impact on the floor. In compiling these lists, I gave some credit for that, in comparison to a player like Korleone Young, who washed out after just one season, or Jonathan Bender, who stuck around for a bit but didn't get to quite the same level as those other players.

Even if we move some players around, move more of them into the negative groups, I have to believe that the percentage of decent to great players who came out of high school is fairly favourable. Up to a third or so are or were significant players in the league, including some all-time greats. If the argument against drafting players out of high school is that most are destined to crash and burn, I don't think the numbers back that up. Furthermore, with the D-League now in place, I think a lot could be done to address issues such as a lack of maturity or seasoning.

I remember Leon Smith for into it with Don Nelson calling him a fatass and telling him to run laps instead...

Then he tried to kill himself.

I think a high schooler should have the option of entering the draft at 18 I just think that the teams drafting them should take more responsibility and scout better so that unless your a complete standout like LeBron or Kobe you shouldn't be a high draft pick like as in the lottery.

Teams should look at high school "projects" when drafting 20th-2nd round and that may also help put off some of the kids from being instant millionaires or even cap there pay for there first year in the league.

Mudiay was a controversial case last year. College vs China. He chose China and it worked out for him. 12 games later he was 1.2 million dollars richer and was able to provide for his family when his buddies are working at Mickey Ds.

I'd rather see these guys in NBA early or in D-League tbh.

Also since KG and Kobe teams are taking chances on the next big thing with high draft picks then trying to play them 25-30 mins a night because they used a lottery pick on them and the fans want progress.

But in reality this guy's need a couple of years off the bench learning first.

The league did suffer a bit imo in the early 00's because of this, not much bit it was noticeable.

Leon Smith is definitely the prime example of how bad it can go. Still, who's to say he wouldn't have crashed and burned, even if he'd gone to college? Higher education and playing college ball wouldn't have automatically stamped out any mental health issues and the like. A stint in the D-League wouldn't either, but if the concern is too much, too fast, then it presents a viable way of transitioning a young player to the big time.

But he's really the exception, not the rule. There just haven't been too many spectacular failures when it comes to players who came out of high school.

I agree the nba should do away with the current age restriction

There's always a risk in drafting any player, even if draftexpress and YouTube videos have everyone drinking the kool aid

It would be nice for a change to have the top prospects play against each other instead of just showing up for measurements and agility drills