theoretical draft: LBJ v Oden?

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theoretical draft: LBJ v Oden?

Postby maes on Thu Feb 15, 2007 4:21 am

If by some freak of nature LBJ & Oden would have both entered the NBA draft in the same year, who would you pick #1 for your team and why?

Draft Notes (both by Matthew Mauer):
LeBron James
Strengths: Smooth player who makes things look effortless no matter how difficult ... Shows unbelievable ability when it comes to passing the ball. Simply has that uncanny court vision and knack for seeing plays develop before they occur ... Possesses very good motion on his long range jumper as he does an excellent job of keeping his body square and his shooting with his elbow tucked in ... Owns a quick first step and solid ball handling ability to get past most defenders ... When penetrating to the basket, he shows tremendous body control as he can adjust his shot according to the defense ... Shows remarkable shot selection as he doesn't force too many shots ... Solid rebounder who understands how to position himself well under the boards to gain easy rebounding opportunities ... Shows great poise and leadership on the court ... Has a very good body, although not NBA ready. James definitely can put on 10-15 more pounds quite comfortably ... Excellent finisher when running the break where he can take opponents off the dribble and rise up for the quick dunk ... Defensively he shows solid anticipation skills when playing the passing lanes ... Plays the baseline very well where he is often the recipient of a quick pass for the alley-oop dunk ...

Weakness: At this point in his career his defense isn't the best but he does have the physical tools to be an outstanding defender ... Has a bad habit of overplaying his man for the quick steal which can leave his player open for the easy shot ... Struggles on the free throw line, however getting a free throw routine and experience would be of great benefit to him, plus establishing a sharper mental focus ... His ball handling ability is very good at the high school level, however he still needs work on maintaining better ball protection and has a tendency to get careless ... Perimeter shooting from mid-range isn't as developed as his long-range shooting ... Doesn't exploit his body size enough as his post-up game offensively remains unutilized ... Sometimes he can be a little too flashy at times as he gets caught up in the moment ... His shooting off the dribble leaves a little to be desired from 18 feet out ... Some have questioned if he has bought into all the hype about himself but to his credit it takes a certain level of brashness to handle it all ... Not a blindingly quick player so lateral quickness on defense should be worked on ...


Greg Oden:
Strengths: One of those dominant centers that surfaces in the high school ranks every 10 or so years ... Has the size and NBA ready body that few his age possess … Great athlete who runs the court with ease and excellent leaping ability … Gets great position in the post and most importantly gets his body wide to give guards a good target to pass into … Wherever the ball goes, Oden works the lane constantly working to get open … Does a great job of keeping the ball high away from opposing guards … Finishes well around the lane with authority via dunk, lay-up or put back … Defensively he is a top notch shot blocker … Possesses the lateral quickness to be an excellent help defender … Owns pro timing as he doesn’t bite on pump fakes easily … Plays the game with a calm and mature demeanor … Hands have a rare quality in that they are both soft and strong … Rarely do passes get bobbled nor do balls get stripped from his hands … Excellent rebounder who is not only a good rebounder in his area but is also terrific out of position … Post game has already shown good improvement since high school … Potentially Oden has few peers and has yet to scratch the surface of his potential … Underrated passer who has shown decent court vision … Does a great job of recognizing double teams and reacting to them … Great character guy. Despite all the publicity Oden has received from an early age, he has remained humble and hungry to improve as a player …

Weaknesses: Offensively Oden isn’t very polished with his back to the basket … Nor does he possess a big assortment of moves … Needs to expand his shooting range, as of right now Oden is very uncomfortable facing the basket … Has struggled when playing against strong aggressive players … Although this is to be expected when you consider his age … Still learning what he's capable of, especially against big and strong opponents, he can go through periods when he doesn’t dominate and often he will defer to his teammates … Post footwork could stand to refinement … From a fundamental stand point, he is still behind in development. As of right now he is often relying on pure athleticism and size … Doesn’t always finish after contact … Can get into foul trouble when faced with physically aggressive players …
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Postby scrub on Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:00 am

Not really frak of nature. Jordan and Olajuwon both entered the 84 draft and they were two future HOFs. Going on what history says - 6 titles is better than 2 so I would pick LeBron
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Postby Christopherson on Thu Feb 15, 2007 9:02 am

What history says? What kind of rediculous logic is that?
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Postby Gedas on Thu Feb 15, 2007 9:36 am

Well, we do not know what will Oden turn out to be. While Lebron is one of the best in the game, even though perhaps the expectations were even higher on him before the draft. It's a tough pick, but I think all managers would go with Lebron, unless they would have something like the Nets currently have, perhaps then Oden. But, when remembering what kind of hype Lebron was folowed with when he was drafted, I think that he would defenetly go no. 1.
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Postby eisfeld on Thu Feb 15, 2007 9:54 am

Well considering that we don't know anything about LeBron besides his pre-draft achievements I'd go with Oden because a good center is raw and even if he turns out not being the uber-superstar he still is worth some good players in a trade.
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Postby #12 on Thu Feb 15, 2007 10:34 am

lebron because his hype was off the charts. his high school games were being shown on PPV. If you did not pick him and you are a GM, you would be fired and all of the fans would hate you.
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Postby Cable on Thu Feb 15, 2007 10:43 am

The hype would make you pick LeBron, but if we forget the hype and look at the players only, I'd pick Oden cause eisfeld's right, true centers are rare and one with this kind of potential is even rarer.
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Postby Nick on Thu Feb 15, 2007 11:45 am

Surely the pick should be LeBron, but i have a feeling if we rewind back to when LeBron was all hype and not such a sure pick then Oden might've been picked over him. Simply because of what Cable mentioned, "true centers are rare and one with this kind of potential is even rarer". The great big men are always taken first, then they worry about the wings later. At the time people, even though we knew LeBron would be something special, we (or atleast me) didn't realise LeBron would become a 30, 7 and 7 player and vow for MVP's and such.
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Postby dada on Thu Feb 15, 2007 1:38 pm

I'd go with Lebron. I honestly dont see the big deal with Oden really, he has an NBA body and all but he hasnt shown me anything special that would convince me from day 1 that he'll be a great NBA center.
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Postby Bruce on Thu Feb 15, 2007 4:17 pm

Olajuwon being picked ahead of jordan wasn't really a shitty pick for houston... but both players did reap in a lot of hardware. What if the bulls never got pippen? any somehow was picked up by the rockets? would jordan have been left with only 2 championships then? and olajuwon gets 6?

just look at their repective college senior year stats, and you'll see why olajuwon was the smarter choice to pick.

Olajuwon-James Senior yr stats
------------------------------------
Olajuwon
34MPG 67%FG% 13.5RPG 1.3APG 16.8PTS

Jordan
29.5MPG 55.1FG% 5.3RPG 2.1APG 19.6PTS

Oden Freshman year stats
------------------------------
29.8 62.4%FG% 9.4 RPG 0.8 APG 15.3ppg


Coming out of college, olajuwon looks more promising for me. No one ever figured jordan to dominate the nba. Same as in picking between Oden and James. You can't really tell how they are going to turn out. Just look at Joe Smith and Trajan Langdon's college careers. Really impressive, but both can barely make it in the nba.

So picking any of the two really won't be a bad pick. But how you plan to build your team determines who you pick.

cutting my reply "short", I'd pick james, becasue the running game is the in thing. putting oden on a team like the nets, hawks or warriors, won't guarantee you anything. If I were the GM. I won't pick beacuse oden is a rare find, but by keeping true to how I'm building my team.
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Postby Laxation on Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:24 pm

Look at Joe Smiths career stats, Dertz... you might get a surprise :wink:

I would pick Oden, because he is a centre, like others have said...
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Postby Bruce on Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:48 pm

Laxation wrote:Look at Joe Smiths career stats, Dertz... you might get a surprise :wink:

I would pick Oden, because he is a centre, like others have said...


o-k, so i looked it up again... still not worth the number one pick he was drafted for. I'm not sure what I shold be surprised about. he did though post up 20-10 in one season in college.
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Postby beau_boy04 on Thu Feb 15, 2007 6:00 pm

hi! I think it would depend on the team having the right to draft first and their current roster too. Say it was Cleveland picking and they already have mr. Z then why pick another center? so I say in this situation having to pick between Oden and Lebron I would based my decision on my current roster and how I think he will fit in my system.

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Postby Nick on Thu Feb 15, 2007 6:56 pm

It's pretty interesting comparing Oden's college stats with the first year college seasons of Ewing/Shaq/Olajuan. Because Oden's are usually better.

Ewing, Shaq and Olajuan all had something like 13 and 9 in their first seasons in college, if i'm not mistaking. Oden is like 15 and 10 with 3.5 blocks or something ridiculous. Plus his shooting hand is injured.

One thing we should note though, is that it's a totally different era!!

EDIT: With the knowledge that in his first 18 games of college Oden is currently averaging 15.3 ppg, 9.4rpg, 0.8 apg, 3.6 bpg along with .624% FG and .611 FT% (remembering that his shooting hand is injured. He's using his other hand for free throws!), and 2.2 TO's (that's actually pretty high, i didn't realise that before), in 29.8 mpg, I decided to go and look at some of the stats of the other good previous centres to compare with Oden. I don't know where to look for stats of the Shaqs, Ewings and Hakeems (I saw their stats on tv once, they were all comparable to Oden), but...

Tim Duncan:
By the time Duncan was ready to be drafted, he'd played all four years in college. After averaging 21ppg, 15 rpg, over 3 bpg and shooting 60% in his fourth and final year in college, Duncan was a lock for #1 pick of the 1997 draft. BUT in his first year of college, duncan averaged 9.8 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 3.8 bpg, 0.9 apg, with 55%FG and 74%FT (i wonder what went wrong) in 30.2 mpg.

Rasheed Wallace:
He stayed 2 years in college, but his first year he averaged 9.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg in 20 mpg with 1.8 bpg and 60%FG

Antonio McDyess:
Antonio was an MVP candidate one season, he used to average some pretty crazy numbers in like 2001ish. His first year of college saw him averaging: 11.4ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.5 bpg, and 56%FG in 23.7 mpg

Marcus Camby:
The former #1 pick had REALLY good college stats :shock: We're talking almost Tim Duncan-esque by his 3rd year. :? But in his first season he averaged 10.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.6 bpg, 49%FG and 59%FT.

Elton Brand:
Another #1 pick big man. Brand averaged 13.4 and and 7.3 in his first college season. along with 1.3 bpg in 23 mins. Also had 59%FG

Kenyon Martin:
Obviously not the most notable big man in the world. But he had a solid career in NJ and he's a number one pick. In his first year of college he averaged 2.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.1 bpg in 10.6 mins.

Chris Bosh:
Bosh only stayed one year in college, and in that one year he averaged 15ppg, 9 rpg, 2.2 bpg in 31 mins and 56%FG.

Emeka Okafor:
Stayed 2 years in college. In his first year he averaged 7.9 ppg, 9 rpg and 4 bpg, on 57%FG.

College stats aren't exactly the most accurate way to make predictions, as every college team has a different situation etc, but it's still interesting to compare. The thing with Oden is that he had hype coming out of high school, so he probably gets more touches on his college team to make more of a name for himself AND the college. Also it seems like all his baskets are dunks. Because of his size, he can pretty much just outmuscle anyone on that level and get in good position to recieve the ball for an easy dunk. It won't be as easy in the NBA.

However, i don't see any reason why Oden won't turn out to be a 23ppg, 10 rpg and 2 bpg sort of player in the NBA when all is said and done.

Also, i would be interested to find out the exact numbers of the first year college season that Alonzo Mourning, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal and Hakeem Olajuon had.
Last edited by Nick on Thu Feb 15, 2007 7:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Bruce on Thu Feb 15, 2007 7:39 pm

Nick wrote:It's pretty interesting comparing Oden's college stats with the first year college seasons of Ewing/Shaq/Olajuan. Because Oden's are usually better.

Ewing, Shaq and Olajuan all had something like 13 and 9 in their first seasons in college, if i'm not mistaking. Oden is like 15 and 10 with 3.5 blocks or something ridiculous. Plus his shooting hand is injured.

One thing we should note though, is that it's a totally different era!!



I would dump Z for Oden anyday...
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Postby DoubleD on Thu Feb 15, 2007 10:40 pm

dada wrote:I honestly dont see the big deal with Oden really, he has an NBA body and all but he hasnt shown me anything special that would convince me from day 1 that he'll be a great NBA center.


He's playing gimped, still the after effects of a broken wrist.

He learned to play the game left handed because of his broken wrist, which including shooting FT's better with his off hand than Lebron does with Lebron using his good hand (/cheap shot).

That's the work ethic of a 7 foot beast I want if I'm a GM. How many players would just sit on their asses and wait for their hand to heal? He has shown he has the drive to be a great NBA player, and will do what it takes to get there. And with the body his has, combined with that work ethic, he'll be great one day.
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Postby Sauru on Fri Feb 16, 2007 4:16 am

weejontee wrote:Not really frak of nature. Jordan and Olajuwon both entered the 84 draft and they were two future HOFs. Going on what history says - 6 titles is better than 2 so I would pick LeBron




that draft was a freak of nature. so many hall of famers in 1 draft.
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Postby maes on Fri Feb 16, 2007 7:48 am

Shaq's 1st year at LSU was
13.9 ppg 12.0 rpg 3.59 bpg; 57% FG

It's hoot looking at how skinny he was. I gotta say looking at Oden now, Oden seems bigger and more powerful as a freshman.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basket ... lg-01.html
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Postby beau_boy04 on Fri Feb 16, 2007 12:58 pm

i think Oden will be more like 25/12 and 3 blocks when everything is said and done. I wish he could average 30 ppg in a season coz I haven't seem a center averaging 30+ per game for a long time my friend
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Postby air gordon on Fri Feb 16, 2007 2:04 pm

Nick wrote:It's pretty interesting comparing Oden's college stats with the first year college seasons of Ewing/Shaq/Olajuan. Because Oden's are usually better.

Ewing, Shaq and Olajuan all had something like 13 and 9 in their first seasons in college, if i'm not mistaking. Oden is like 15 and 10 with 3.5 blocks or something ridiculous. Plus his shooting hand is injured.

One thing we should note though, is that it's a totally different era!!

EDIT: With the knowledge that in his first 18 games of college Oden is currently averaging 15.3 ppg, 9.4rpg, 0.8 apg, 3.6 bpg along with .624% FG and .611 FT% (remembering that his shooting hand is injured. He's using his other hand for free throws!), and 2.2 TO's (that's actually pretty high, i didn't realise that before), in 29.8 mpg, I decided to go and look at some of the stats of the other good previous centres to compare with Oden. I don't know where to look for stats of the Shaqs, Ewings and Hakeems (I saw their stats on tv once, they were all comparable to Oden), but...

Tim Duncan:
By the time Duncan was ready to be drafted, he'd played all four years in college. After averaging 21ppg, 15 rpg, over 3 bpg and shooting 60% in his fourth and final year in college, Duncan was a lock for #1 pick of the 1997 draft. BUT in his first year of college, duncan averaged 9.8 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 3.8 bpg, 0.9 apg, with 55%FG and 74%FT (i wonder what went wrong) in 30.2 mpg.

Rasheed Wallace:
He stayed 2 years in college, but his first year he averaged 9.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg in 20 mpg with 1.8 bpg and 60%FG

Antonio McDyess:
Antonio was an MVP candidate one season, he used to average some pretty crazy numbers in like 2001ish. His first year of college saw him averaging: 11.4ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.5 bpg, and 56%FG in 23.7 mpg

Marcus Camby:
The former #1 pick had REALLY good college stats :shock: We're talking almost Tim Duncan-esque by his 3rd year. :? But in his first season he averaged 10.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.6 bpg, 49%FG and 59%FT.

Elton Brand:
Another #1 pick big man. Brand averaged 13.4 and and 7.3 in his first college season. along with 1.3 bpg in 23 mins. Also had 59%FG

Kenyon Martin:
Obviously not the most notable big man in the world. But he had a solid career in NJ and he's a number one pick. In his first year of college he averaged 2.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.1 bpg in 10.6 mins.

Chris Bosh:
Bosh only stayed one year in college, and in that one year he averaged 15ppg, 9 rpg, 2.2 bpg in 31 mins and 56%FG.

Emeka Okafor:
Stayed 2 years in college. In his first year he averaged 7.9 ppg, 9 rpg and 4 bpg, on 57%FG.

College stats aren't exactly the most accurate way to make predictions, as every college team has a different situation etc, but it's still interesting to compare. The thing with Oden is that he had hype coming out of high school, so he probably gets more touches on his college team to make more of a name for himself AND the college. Also it seems like all his baskets are dunks. Because of his size, he can pretty much just outmuscle anyone on that level and get in good position to recieve the ball for an easy dunk. It won't be as easy in the NBA.

However, i don't see any reason why Oden won't turn out to be a 23ppg, 10 rpg and 2 bpg sort of player in the NBA when all is said and done.

Also, i would be interested to find out the exact numbers of the first year college season that Alonzo Mourning, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal and Hakeem Olajuon had.

good post here...

yeh- with that hand injury i don't think we're seeing the real deal w/oden

since he plays in the big 10, i've seen a few games of him. from what i've seen- a mix of disappointment and being impressed. big guys normally are works in progress so i guess that's to be expected. he is a beast down there but you can see there's some skill/footowork involved when he's making his moves. it's not like shaq style where he pins the guy on his hip then gorilla dunks it every time

personally i think he could use something resembling guards who pass in the post better @osu

i do agree about skilled 7fters don't come along very often but that can be a trap since Oden is still young/inexperienced/etc and almost exclusively works in the post. one thing to ponder- would Oden even be the 1st pick (or picked ahead of) if he was in the same draft class as any of the guys Nick had mentioned?

Lebron James out of high school already showed he possessed the offensive awareness of a point guard to go along with all his world athleticism and high skill level. he was no sure thing to succeed but i guess if there was ever a sure thing of a high schooler straight to the nba to do it, he was the guy

if a GM is picking 1st and had to choose between the 2, he's already in the shits. 1st pick normally means your team sucks balls and you could probably lose your job if you miss on this pick. that's a lot of pressure

i'd probably go with James. he'd keep the house filled while the team rebuilds.
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Postby Laxation on Fri Feb 16, 2007 7:16 pm

mdertz wrote:
Laxation wrote:Look at Joe Smiths career stats, Dertz... you might get a surprise :wink:

I would pick Oden, because he is a centre, like others have said...


o-k, so i looked it up again... still not worth the number one pick he was drafted for. I'm not sure what I shold be surprised about. he did though post up 20-10 in one season in college.

You said he couldn't play in the NBA, but averaged something like 18 and 9

DoubleD wrote:That's the work ethic of a 7 foot beast I want if I'm a GM. How many players would just sit on their asses and wait for their hand to heal? He has shown he has the drive to be a great NBA player, and will do what it takes to get there. And with the body his has, combined with that work ethic, he'll be great one day.

Good point, I hadn't thought of that angle
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Postby Bruce on Fri Feb 16, 2007 7:30 pm

Laxation wrote:You said he couldn't play in the NBA, but averaged something like 18 and 9.



but man, that is still really weak for a number 1 pick... that's his best, and never had another season close to that.
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Postby Sauru on Fri Feb 16, 2007 11:17 pm

college performance does not always show what they can do in the nba, specially if you are from duke lol.
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Postby beau_boy04 on Sun Feb 18, 2007 6:51 pm

this is a good read http://www.gregoden.com/gregoden020807.php

in that article Mario Martin noted "Oden will likely go first because he is a rare commodity and everyone outside of Miami is desperate for a player that even resembles a center. But I would be hard-pressed to pass on a kid who appears to contain that Jordanesque ability to take over a game and be most brilliant with the game on the line. "

Damn this kinda reminds me the 1984 draft pick when Hakeen and Michael were part of :)
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Postby shadowgrin on Sun Feb 18, 2007 9:33 pm

Nick wrote:Also, i would be interested to find out the exact numbers of the first year college season that Alonzo Mourning, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal and Hakeem Olajuon had.

Your wish is my command Barnsey. Here you go:

Shaq 1st yr:
13.9 ppg 57.3 FG% 55.6 FT% 12.0 rpg 3.6 bpg 1.9 apg 1.2 spg 2.9 tpg 28.2 mpg

Dream 1st yr:
8.3 ppg 61 FG% 56 FT% 6.2 rpg 2.5 bpg 0.4 apg 0.9 spg 1.4 tpg 18.2 mpg

Ewing 1st yr:
12.7 ppg 63.1 FG% 61.7 FT% 7.5 rpg 3.1 bpg 0.6 apg 1.1 spg 2.0 tpg 28.8 mpg

Admiral 1st yr:
7.6 ppg 62.3 FG% 57.5 FT% 4.0 rpg 1.3 bpg 0.2 apg 0.2 spg 1.1 tpg 13.3 mpg
(His 1st yr. stats may be small but it made a huge leap during his 2nd yr.)

Zo 1st yr:
13.1 ppg 60.3 FG% 66.7 FT% 7.3 rpg 5.0 bpg 0.7 apg 0.4 spg 2.0 tpg 28.3 mpg



sources:
http://www.databasebasketball.com
http://basketball-reference.com
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