I know when you have two evenly matched teams you're supposed to go with the team with the best player. And nobody's been better than Dirk this year or these playoffs. It's
not even close in the playoffs. But there are some factors to this for me.
1. The Spurs allowed Amare to run wild last year because they had no favorable matchup to throw at him defensively. Spurs have nobody for Dirk, so I suspect they'll let him run wild and shut down everyone else.
2. Brent Barry and Michael Finley came up huge in the first round. Barry was having a fantastic series and yet the Kings were still leaving him open, even after he cost them game two when they focused on Big Shot Rob. Finley played like a starter quality player after a season like a reserve. And Barry. He had a .749 TS%. and .743 eFG. Absolutely blistering shooter in the first round. Nobody else really stepped it up on the Mavs. Terry and Howard both played like they did in the regular season, and Stackhouse was absolutely terrible in the first round. Duncan topped his regular season, Parker was close and Manu's drop was offset by the big leaps for Barry and Finley. Not to mention Bowen's hot hand (76% shooting!). Infact, the Spurs were the best shooting team (56.6% from the floor) of the first round. (Unless the Suns shoot 80% from the floor in game seven, they won't catch the Spurs.) Dallas actually shot below 50% from the floor (48.7%) in the first round.
3. The pace. The Dallas-Memphis series had the lowest pace of any of the first round matchups. Four possessions a game less than the Nets-Pacers slowdownfest, and a whopping eleven fewer possessions than the Bulls-Heat and ten less than Clips-Nuggets. Dallas was 27th on the season, Spurs 24th. (Memphis was 30th, thus why that first round was so slow) The Spurs love a slowdown game because they can set up their noose of a defense. They absolutely controlled the pace of the first round series.
If you look at the top three, Dirk smashes Duncan, while Howard/Parker and Terry/Manu are both right after each other. The rest of the Spurs had a better first round than the rest of the Mavs though, and if we assume the Spurs league leading defense brings Howard and Terry down a couple pegs the Spurs will makeup that Dirk difference. But it's going to be close, very close.
On Pick n' Roll I had Spurs in seven. I can't be a bum and change my prediction now. So I'll stay with it.