at what age do you TRULY SEE a player declining?

[j.23]

actually age is a pretty tough criteria, i think a better question would be at what point of their season do you truly see a decline? by decline i don't mean a significant statistical drop, but a decline in personal performance (getting beat on defense, your shots always coming up short etc.) for example - although antoine walker is probably averaging career low numbers, i don't think he's in the decline yet; likewise gary payton is in the decline.

it's funny, in this day and age people (talking about the 2nd generation of stars) that hit their 10th season are slowing down significantly, opposed to years past. for example, gary payton (drafted in 1990) averaged his 2nd highest point total 10 years into his NBA career, yet people like michael finley, jerry stackhouse, keith van horn, shareef abdur rahim, who were high draft picks and have an incredible amount of talent have been slotted in the reserve role -- and have been on a drastic decline.

why is that?

[Matthew]

Age is not a pre requisite for decline. Jordan was still winning scoring titles, championships and mvp's at the age of 35!

It all comes down to the player, and what kind of role they are asked to fill on their team. Everything is minutes (well not everything.. ) when it comes to declining and improving. If tim thomas now gets 25 minutes a game and starts to average 10 ppg, will he be suddenly a better player than he was before, or is he just in the right situation?

[j.23]

actually, i didn't state it but that was pretty much why i brought up the question initially (despite all the gary payton examples) was jordan still schooling people, winning the scoring title, ASG MVP, MVP, Finals MVP, all defense 1st team, all nba first 1st team at the age of 35.

you make a good point about roles and such, but when you designate a player (who has been a starter his whole career -- michael finley, for example) a "role" on a specific team, does that not mean they have pretty much turned into a role player? (relating back to the original question -- be on the decline? ) i know you can make a case about shawn marion being a role player yet not being on the decline but i believe that's an exception to the rule. i think a better question would have been "at what point of their season do superstars truly decline"?

[Matthew]

Players usually are put in roles to help the team best. If Stackhouse was on Charlotte, do you think he'd be comming off the bench? Of course not..

[Its_asdf]

I think that players around 33 + wouldn't necessarily start declining in skill, but rather having a reduced role because some teams might look to develop their younger players instead of playing the older ones.

[VlaDiv]

There is more and more of a movement lately to phase out the older guys with D-league and young, raw talent from overseas. The free agent wire right now is loaded with names like g robinson, person, spree, gugliotta, laettner, bryon russell, g lynch, massenburg etc all guys who could probably still fill a role somewhere, but teams prefer younger types.
I guess Vin Baker is this years exception as he is now a clipper.

As for nba dynasty mode, which is semi-accurate, a player can still be at their peak at 30 but shortly after the years begin to take their toll and guys start dropping significantly around 33/34. A good player can still contribute despite the decline up to around 40, but many players like a wesley person reach a level where they kind of help a team but not enough to merit using them instead of a young guy.

I think what teams have to realize is that not every 19 year old is the next shaq or jordan. Potential means nothing if they don't reach it. I'd rather see the league take on a few vets... shawn kemp anyone? hehehe.

[Laxation]

Age is not a pre requisite for decline. Jordan was still winning scoring titles, championships and mvp's at the age of 35!

there is no way can use Jordan as a comparrison for the majority of players in this league.

[eastinglandboi]

U can never say, it varies so much, i think someone like Timmy will be valuable player till he retires because he isn't as much of a flair player, he plays like a golf player lol he'll last a long time i think if he keeps healthy anyway

[Matthew]

Age is not a pre requisite for decline. Jordan was still winning scoring titles, championships and mvp's at the age of 35!

there is no way can use Jordan as a comparrison for the majority of players in this league.

No but its an example of how players dont all decline after a certain age. Its not just MJ, look at stockton, malone, hakeem etc, they were all very effective after the age of 33.

Even look at Webber this season, or Iverson. It's like fans are expecting a decline and are predicting it instead of enjoying how good they still are.

[Laxation]

i know what your saying, its just impossible to set an age where a player becomes crap...

lets just say "mid to late 30's" and leave it at that

[Axel]

It all depends upon genetics, and not everyone has the same genes... thus it is different for everyone.

[Matt]

some guys dont start to hit there peek till later in their careers.....Cassell for example.

[MetalHead]

It's not just about the role. Sure, someone like Dwyane Wade who throws himself at bigger guys and get thrown around a lot probably won't have such a long career as a reserve shooter. It's got a lot to do on how the players spend their down time, either between seasons, or between contracts. Guys like Sam Cassel who continue to condition themselves, regularly, give themselves an edge on the younger, quicker players. As players age, their body's can not withstand an 82 game season, but at least they stay through the whole 30 minutes.

[Amphatoast]

i'd say 33 or so.
shaq is on the decline
spree went down around that age
many stars just become good players. Many superstars are still superstars.. or stars at least

[Abctest123]

what about position and athleticism? For example, a guard that relied on his athleticism (using his quicks and stuff) than anything will deteriorate at a faster rate than say someone that wasnt too athletic but had the fundamentals. dont ask me for which player i would think fit each of the two categories i named though. Also, players that are highflyers, may be prone to declining a bit more, as it does put quite a lot of force on their knees with the whole lot of dunks and posterizes. They may deteriorate quicker than someone that doesnt have much hops as a guard as they dont constantly jump high and hard for a huge dunk or something. And for position, uhh, i dont really have a reason for this, but thought this may be a factor.

[kinokong]

And for position, uhh, i dont really have a reason for this, but thought this may be a factor.

i think there is a reason... u see big men and point guards bang around a lot in the paint so that is why they probably detrioate faster

[Laxation]

all players bang around in the paint... some just more than others, reguardless of position

[Fenix]

Big man later than perimeter players, and it's different from player to player.

[MetalHead]

all players bang around in the paint... some just more than others, reguardless of position

I'm not so sure...A guy like Brent Barry who hides his ass in the corner pocket three isn't going to get banged up like Fred Jones. This is related to role. A three point specialist isn't going to go and try to dunk on anybody.

[Fenix]

I think banging in the post doesn't affect one as much as actual degradation of his athletism. Big men usually don't rely as much on their athletic skills as small players, especially if these have no shot and their primary weapon is driving to the basket. Jordan was an exception because he succeded to completely change his game. A young Jordan attacked the rim and took you off the dribble, while the old one relied on his midrange&post up game. But then again, you have Iverson who is still dominant at the age of thirty, although his jump shot is only average. But from some reason I don't believe Wade will follow him on the same path. He's showed that he's somewhat injury prone and he doesn't have size or skill foundation to convert his game like Jordan did.

[Matt]

Wade looks like he'll be injury prone which is a shame.

Mike James is 30 btw for those that didnt know. Playing best ball of his career.

[eastinglandboi]

what makes you say that?

[Fenix]

He played 66 games in his first season and 77 last year, but he collapsed in the conference finals. IMHO, with his style of play, it is bound to happen again.

[eastinglandboi]

Nah he doesn't have any serious injurys, and he doesn't drive and get hurt as much as he did in his first two seasons cos he's developed a jump shot

[Andrew]

Physical/athletic decline probably begins in the late 20s but isn't really all that noticeable until the early 30s. Players who can fall back on smarts and skill even as their athleticism declines find other ways of putting up their numbers and are still deadly, Michael Jordan being the obvious example.

In reality, there's where the most decline comes from since good players don't exactly forget how to play basketball. Reaction speed, stamina, leaping ability etc decline and as such they don't get some of the same opportunities as they used to, as well as taking on lesser roles leading to lower statistical output. Injuries of course speed up the process.

So I'd say the decline really starts in the early 30s but whether it's drastic or not depends on the player. Some players have a long way to "fall" and many remain perfectly solid/serviceable in lesser roles. The sad thing is many players are being written off too soon these days. A player turns 30 and is considered over the hill and no longer worth building around.

Even the great players have a season or two admist their prime where they have kind of an off-year or their stats are down, usually due to injuries or perhaps less playing time (more team success, more blowouts, more rest).