He's the next _____

[maes]

Interesting article by the statheads at 82games.com regarding using stats to compare legends to existing players.

Results are surprising, as real stats generally are.

Who's the next Michael Jordan? Seemingly asked with each new star that bursts upon the NBA scene, the answer seemingly changes each season. While the league has yet to produce anyone who fits the bill aesthetically, statistics offer a hint by way of similarity scores, which measure how closely one player resembles another. Factors such as a player's size (height and weight), shooting percentage, assist ratio (assists per 100 possessions), rebound rate (percentage of missed shots a player rebounded while he was on the floor), turnover ratio (turnovers per 100 possessions) and usage rate (possessions per 40 minutes) are taken into account when calculating similarity scores. The scores range from 0 to 1000, with 1000 being a perfect score. (For more details on the similarity scores method, please read this article.)

So who measures up? To Jordan? Not many. But, based on their statistics from last season, plenty of today's superstars remind of some of the more famous -- and infamous -- players of the past 25 years.

In the table below, 82games.com's Roland Beech and I have tabulated how closely some of today's players compare to their predecessors. Please note that even though two players may be statistically similar, it does not mean that they were the same type of player. It simply means they produced similar results.

Who matches up to yesterday's stars?
Player Current counterparts Similarity Score
Larry Bird LeBron James 885 Dirk Nowitzki 856
John Stockton Steve Nash 881 Jason Terry 880
Karl Malone Elton Brand 890 Zach Randolph 884
Isiah Thomas Mike Bibby 897 Gilbert Arenas 884
Bernard King Carmelo Anthony 901 Corey Maggette 882
Dennis Rodman Andre Iguodala 810 Reggie Evans 798
Clyde Drexler Vince Carter 909 Paul Pierce 904
Tom Tolbert Eduardo Najera 864 Brian Scalabrine 844
Scottie Pippen Lamar Odom 855 Antoine Walker 853
Kiki Vandeweghe Wally Szczerbiak 879 Michael Redd 866
Hakeem Olajuwon Shaquille O'Neal 932 Amare Stoudemire 877
Michael Jordan Tracy McGrady 918 Vince Carter 908

Let's take a look at some of results in depth.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/w ... imilarity/

[Null17]

Andre Iguodala and Dennis Rodman?

[Andrew]

Interesting comparisons, but not necessarily a valid "He's the next..." equation. Perhaps it could be used to say player X is better than player Y, but to truly be the "next" anyone the current player would have to resemble his predecessor not only statistically but in style of play as well as qualities that can't be measured numerically.

That said, statistics would seem to support some of those comparisons. I'd agree that Steve Nash could be looked upon as this generation's John Stockton, though that's a comparison that was being made on draft day ten years ago and I would not consider Nash in the same tier as Stockton. There's some other interesting results too. Dennis Rodman and Reggie Evans, Karl Malone and Elton Brand and Michael Jordan and Vince Carter/Tracy McGrady is of course nothing new.

But then there's the other similiarities. Andre Iguodala and Dennis Rodman? Scottie Pippen and Antoine Walker? Larry Bird and LeBron James? I know the article specifically says that it's a comparison of stats only and not playing styles but to me that defeats the purpose of determining who's the next whoever.

But interesting read all the same.

[Fresh8]

There's the flaw of statistcs. Stats don't tell the whole story. There are some reasonable pairs of players who seem similar but there are others that don't seem right.