Best Rookie In 3 Years

[bullsfan009]

I'm interested in what all you NBA Scouts think out there...

[Andrew]

I'm going with Ben Gordon, though my pick hinges upon his continued development. Difficult to go against Howard or Okafor, but Gordon has been so impressive thus far and he's really only displayed his great scoring talents and clutch abilities. As his overall game continues to develop and improve (ie. his defense keeps getting better and he develops solid playmaking skills for a combo guard), I feel he could really be something special. He's already been huge for the Bulls in his rookie season.

Oh, and I kind of like the team he plays for, so I guess I'm a little biased in my prediction.

[bullsfan009]

Although I voted for Dwight Howard b/c I think he's going to be in the Kevin Garnett-category eventually, Gordon has really impressed me, too. I'm in the Chicago-area, so I've watched a lot of Bulls games this year, and his scoring ability is incredible, especially when he gets hot .

I'm just not sure where he's going to fit in eventually- is he a 1 or a 2? He has a shoot-first, pass-second mentality, but if he plays the 2, can he be as good as an Allen Iverson-type player??? Or just another David Wesley?

I think there are 2 major sleepers in this draft class, though- Shaun Livington and Josh Smith. Livingston looks incredible out there, he's so natural on the court. Many scouts predicted him to be the best of the draft in 3 years. And for Josh Smith, he's got out-of-this-world athleticism. If he get a mid-range game, how do you stop this guy???

[DipSetVC]

I'm going for Dwight Howard, he averaged a double double without the Magic barely running any plays for him, as soon as Steve Francis is gone, this guy is going to be a solid 20 PPG, 10 RPG and 3 BPG kind of guy.

[bullsfan009]

I agree.

Also- I remember watching the McDonald's All-Star game and seeing Howard shooting jumpers, something he really doesn't do with the Magic. I think they just told him this year to crash the boards and try to get second-chance points, put-backs, etc. Just like you said:

he averaged a double double without the Magic barely running any plays for him

He's got a great attitude and work ethic, so he's only going to get better, and once they turn him loose for real, I think he's going to be a dominator.

[cyanide]

I think when involving Ben Gordon and Emeka Okafor in the same sentence, "best player" is too subjective considering their different positions... but I can see Okafor improving his game to his already impressive double-double stats. But, I wouldn't be surprised if Howard or Gordon improves big time when given more chances and minutes.

[fgrep15]

I don't know about Ben Gordon, I think he'll be good, but not that good. I'm going with Dwight Howard, and next to him Shaun Livingston. Dwight Howard averaged 12-10 and 1.8 blocks, and he's only 19. His work ethic is just so good, and it just seems inevitable for him to become real good. If the Magic can get Francis to realize he's really not that good, Howard can put up numbers close to 17 PPG and 10-12 RPG next season.

Livingston should be averaging about 7+ assists a game next season if he get's about 32+ MPG.When he was actually healthy and getting minutes this season, he was averaging about 7-8 assists a game. His court visions and passing skills are just so amazing, and his defense is very good. He averaged 7.9 asssits in 35.9 MPG for the last 9 games of the season, and also 10.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 1.44 SPG.

He just needs to develop some strength, not really bulk up, but get stronger and improve his shot, and he'll be in the Top 3 in APG, and making All-Defensive teams in now time.

[DipSetVC]

Yeah, I have to somewhat agree with that fgrep is trying to get at, players like Dwight Howard and Shaun Livingston have so much upside and still have tons of development to undergo while Okafor and Gordon won't improve nearly as much.

[bullsfan009]

Yeah, I have to somewhat agree with that fgrep is trying to get at, players like Dwight Howard and Shaun Livingston have so much upside and still have tons of development to undergo while Okafor and Gordon won't improve nearly as much.

You never know- I can see Okafor being the next Ben Wallace, except better because he can score. And, Gordon has drawn comparisons to AI, and I know his work ethic is great, too, so maybe he could get to that level one day.

It's really tough to tell these kinds of things, even professional NBA scouts who look at these players for years still get things dead-wrong. For example:

Michael Olowakandi was #1 overall, over Mike Bibby, Vince Carter, Antawn Jamison, Dirk Nowitzki, and Paul Pierce
Michael Redd was picked #43 overall in the 2000 draft.
Ben Wallace wasn't drafted at all.
Manu Ginobili was drafted #57 overall in the 1999 draft.
Darko Milicek was selected last year over Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and Kirk Hinrich

(I bet alotta guys got fired over that one )

[fgrep15]

I don't think a Ben Wallace comparison is good for Okafor, his weakside defense, and shot blocking aren't close to the same as they were in College now that he's in the NBA. I felt it would actually happen, wasn't too sure, but it did, he's only averaging 1.71 blocks.

He'll be a much better player than Ben, but not the same defensive impact IMO. Kinda reminds you of Mourning...

bullsfan009, yea it's hard to predict those things, but you also have to remember that with this season, all the guys we're talking about have played good. If they have been on the bench and done nothing, it would be much harder to predict, but saying a 12-10-1.7 Rookie out of highschool will be the best isn't a bold prediction at all.

The players made it really easy on us because every single one of them in the list performed, and showed they could really play.

Jameer Nelson in 21 games as a starter averaged 15.7 PPG | 4.7 RPG | 5.2 APG | 1.71 SPG | 48.0% FG | 33.8% 3PT | 38.0 MPG. His PER Minute numbers off the bench were also about exactly the same as the numbers he put up in his 21 games as a starter.

Even Telfair did something, in 25 games as a starter, he averaged 10.9 PPG | 2.5 RPG | 5.8 APG | 1.04 SPG | 34.0 MPG. Even though it's just putting up numbers on a bad team, at least he's showing he can play. [Turns the ball over a lot too]

...and we all know how well Iguodala, Earl Smith, Josh Smith, Childress, Emeka, Howard, Gordon and whoever else did.

Also Kandi only got picked high because of under-exposure, he was tall and could run and jump, and people didn't know much about him. Just started playing ball in College etc etc..stupid guy tricked people into thinking he could be good

[bullsfan009]

Why do you think Okafor's weak side defense hasn't been as good in the NBA than in College? Because, you're right- I remember him swatting everything at UCONN, and 1.71 bpg is not as much as you'd think he would get...

but saying a 12-10-1.7 Rookie out of highschool will be the best isn't a bold prediction at all.

Yeah. He's winning this poll by a landslide right now .

[fgrep15]

I really don't know, players are better, and stronger. Some times in the NBA you can get pinned by your man when a shot is going up, and have no chance at challenging it.

In College, that would likely never happen to him, and most guys average more blocks in College anyways, just because of the difference in talent level. He should go up to 2+ BPG in the future as he improves his game.

[DipSetVC]

You shouldn't be surprised bullsfan, if Francis wasn't on the Magic, I wouldn't be surprised if Howard made the All-Star team this past season, I'm just so high on this kid, he's the real deal.

[Blue Nugget]

I'll tell you in 3 years

[cyanide]

Darko Milicek was selected last year over Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and Kirk Hinrich

(I bet alotta guys got fired over that one )

I'm sure Detroit's really confident with Darko and I'm sure they feel that they made a good choice with him. It's just that he haven't been playing much, but he has potential.

[beau_boy04]

hey bullsfan009 you forgot to mention:

Joe Smith - 1 pick overall by Golden State.
K Brown - 1st pick overall by Wizards

And many others super upper bust.

[bullsfan009]

You shouldn't be surprised bullsfan, if Francis wasn't on the Magic, I wouldn't be surprised if Howard made the All-Star team this past season, I'm just so high on this kid, he's the real deal.

I agree.

I'm sure Detroit's really confident with Darko and I'm sure they feel that they made a good choice with him. It's just that he haven't been playing much, but he has potential.

You don't think they'd rather have Wade, Anthony, or Bosh? Even Hinrich instead? Darko has already asked to be traded- they're probably not going to keep him b/c they locked up Rasheed Wallace for the long-term before the season, and Ben Wallace isn't going anywhere. Darko wants to start somewhere- I think he'd rather go to the Hawks than be on Detroit.

You're right though, Cyanide, he does have potential. I just still think they made a big mistake by selecting him. Can you imagine that team with Wade or Anthony on it? It'd be an all-star team!

hey bullsfan009 you forgot to mention:

Joe Smith - 1 pick overall by Golden State.
K Brown - 1st pick overall by Wizards

And many others super upper bust.

Yeah, and the most famous of all: the Blazers selecting Sam Bowie #2 overall in the 1984 draft, leaving the Chicago Bulls at #3 with Michael Jordan!

[Strike Freedom]

Josh Smith can be one of the best..
Atlanta has no superstar at the moment,
so he has a lot of opportunities..

[J-Smoove]

jsmoove's got the most potential in this draft. i don't know if it will take 3 years to fulfill that potential, but at the end of his career, he'll arguably have the best career. livingston definitely will probably be neck-and-neck with jsmoove.

i think in 3 years it'll be howard. he's just at athletic beast. imo he's a better version of chris bosh, in terms of comparrisons to td-kg prototype. this kid's got great range for a PF (not to where he'll be launching 3s, because he's smarter than that) and his added muscle will help him become an elite ball player. superstar? maybe.

shaun livingston's court vision is OUT OF THIS WORLD. i think he's got to have MUCH MORE RECOGNITION. it's unbelievable how he gets his passes. he'll give you the "how the hell did he get that pass to go through" all the time. his J is looking better and better, and it'll be soon before he becomes the 3rd link to the clippers' 2-man tandem (assuming 1-year-wonder simmons comes back or not).

back to j-smoove. he's ridiculous! he'll cool down on the blocks, but it'll stay in the 1.5 range. i can't see it exceeding 2 blocks for a season. his mid-range jumpshot is streaky. he doesn't take bad shots, its just that he's not a tremendous shooter yet. if he gets that to be consistent (he's extremely streaky with that jumpshot), he'll be a 25ppg at his peak. his defense is decent (in terms of man-to-man) and he's a decent help def. most of his blocks are really off-block layups, but he's got the length and hops to block jumpshots (dirk should know a lot about this..). his 3 is off, but it'll come in 3 years. hopefully a 100 3balls in his peak years, but shouldn't pass 75 from now til 3 years. or 1-3 3pointers a game.

j-smoove's endless potential really goes down to his work ethic and athleticism. if he continues to work as hard as nique did (probably harder because he's got some "pressure" on him), he'll be a franchise player.

and i agree with SO. i think it really helps him that atlanta doesn't have any superstars on their team, so his development won't be hindered. poor childress (even though he doesn't have the same potential) will be at best a 18ppg-er. still pretty good.

[fgrep15]

I don't think we can label one guy has having "the most potential". If anyone could get that label, it would be Dwight Howard because he's a big, quick, and athletic PF out of highschool who put up a double double in his rookie year.

I think we could just say Dwight Howard, Shaun Livingston, Josh Smith, Sebastian Telfiar, Andre Iguodala, and Earl "JR" Smith have about equal potential, some a little more than others, but in a similar range.

One forgotten player is the Bulls Luol Deng, he's also only 20 years old, and has the potential to be a very good all round player, and possibly defender with his length.

[air gordon]

i'll try not to get repetitive...

i voted for livingston but howard is a close 2nd. 6'10 post players like howards are far and few in between. but a 6'7 pg with true pg skills, not to mention a humongous wingspan and great D, are even more rair.

while Okafor and Gordon won't improve nearly as much.

welcome back... i disagree. okafor can still stand to improve his post skills and gordon his pg skilss


bullsfan009, welcome aboard

[GloveGuy]

Al Jefferson. Why he's not on the list is beyond me, but he will be the best rookie in three years.

Never mind this guy's stats(though he has some insane per 48 numbers), and actually watch him play. This guy already has one of the top ten post games in the league. His footwork is McHale-like. This guy just has that gift of being able to put the ball in the basket.

Along with his tremendous back-to-the basket play, he's extremely athletic, can shoot from 15 feet out, and has great rebounding skills for a youngster. His attitute is awesome as well; he's 19 years old, yet demands the ball in the post like he's a veteran.

I'm really shocked by the fact that none of the Celtics' rookies -- West, Allen, and Jefferson -- are on this list. They will make Danny Ainge look like a genius in three years.

[air gordon]

lol glove, i could understand the payton bias but are you seriously shocked the celts are not in the poll?? i guess the rest of the gm's in the nba are wrong too because i don't think even one of them voted for jefferson to be the best of his draft class (in the nba.com poll and sam smith had this in an article).

it's debateable whether jefferson should be in the poll. i've seen a few celt games and he is talented. but deng should be in the poll before him if anything

and lol if west and allen should be there, then so should the other chicago bulls rooks

[Colin]

I think Dwight Howard will be the best. But Bassy has potential to get up there. I got my fair share of Blazers games towards the end of the season being in the Northwest (er... Southwest Canada). His jumper was getting mroe consistent and he is fast. Decision making was getting better by the quarter. I like him.

[fgrep15]

I don't think Jefferson will be the best just because he has a great back to the basket game. He's really not ahead of any of the other guys right now, and while good, it's debatable.

He's athletic, but not a super athlete, he's mediocre, but he definately does have some good skills. I agree with Air Gordon, a player like Livingston is just so rare that it gives him a very good advantage.

Also about the other Celtics guys, West and Allen shouldn't be in. Allen can be a Top SG in the league, but he doesn't really have start or superstar potential. Al Jefferson should be in the poll though, and so should Luol Deng, at least over Devin Harris. Childress I don't see with any star potential either, but I like him, remind me of Shane Battier, he can do a little bit of everything, and he hustles.