the recipe

[magius]

Below, are the names and field goal percentages of all the nba playoffs mvp from 1970-2004, and with the exception of jerry west, the most important players on their respective championship teams. Thus you have one ingredient to the recipe for success -- your star player has to shoot at the very LEAST 45% or close. Their are exceptions... chauncy and willis reed, but those are 2 out of 34.

I therefore conclude that their is not an elite shooting guard (tmac, iverson, pierce, bryant) in todays nba that can win a championship when he is the number one defensive priority of the opposing team. the said guards need big men to realize any hint of success. You always build around the big men first, and the guards second because basketball in general is guard-talent rich and will get even richer considering everybody wants to be a guard or small forward. Even the 7 footers want to be guards now In general, it is much easier to find a great guard than a great big man. consider this: I do not remember the last good big man to not be drafted #1 in the draft (with the exception of mourning, but shaq was #1 so there) , but i do remember plenty of great guards within the top 10, and average-good guards in the first round with the rare steal in the second.

I know most everybody already knows that big men are always more valuable than, uh, small men. But i'm just trying to reaffirm the fact. Good big man will also almost always shoot in the 50 percent mark, which is of course one of the important ingrediencts to success.


year - name - fg percentage

2004 - chauncy billups - 385
2003 - duncan -529
2001 - shaq - 553
2000 - shaq - 566
1999 - duncan - 495
1998 - jordan - 462
1997 - jordan - 456
1996 - jordan - 459
1995 - hakeem - 531
1994 - hakeem - 519
1993 - jordan - 475
1992 - jordan - 499
1991 - jordan - 524
1990 - isiah thomas - 463
1989 - dumars - 455
1988 - worthy - 523
1987 - magic - 539
1986 - bird - 517
1985 - kareem - 560
1984 - bird - 524
1983 - moses malone - 536
1982 - magic - 537
1981 - ced maxwell - 580
1980 - magic - 530
1979 - dennis johnson - 450
1978 - wes unsfeld - 587
1977 - walton - 507
1976 - jo jo white - 445
1975 - rick barry - 444
1974 - havlicek - 484
1973 - willis reed - 466
1972 - chamberlain - 563
1971 - willis reed - 413
1970 - jerry west - 469

[Andrew]

Just a couple of corrections: Jerry West was the MVP in 1969, Willis Reed was the MVP in 1970, and the 1971 Finals MVP was Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

The 45% statistic is interesting, but I think the most telling figure is the number of Finals MVPs that are guards. Only 8 of the 22 players who have been named Finals MVP are guards and one of them (Magic) had the size of a forward. Some of those players also weren't the guy that their team was built around, and the Lakers did not win the championship the year that Jerry West was Finals MVP.

[magius]

doh! as for jerry west.....

and with the exception of jerry west, the most important players on their respective championship teams

i dont blame you for missing it, i wouldnt've read a post that long either you're right some of those guys werent the central pieces of their team, my bad

in fact, i really dont know what this post is about i think i was just babbling, and im too lazy to reread my own post to find out what i was thinking! i'm guessing alls i was trying to say was guards today and in general cant win championships when they're the number one defensive priority, because if so playoff defense will most likely not allow 45% shooting from any of the elite around right now. and my seccond point was to point out that big men were more important, but i think i typed too much that i eventually just drifted out.

forgiveness!

oh, also interest to note that most of the guards that did win, aside from mj, did not repeat as playoff mvp, and if they did they arguably (like you were so kind to point out ) werent the actual centrepieces of their teams. Most of the big men on the list were the unarguable centrepieces of their teams (note: most) magic was the only other repeat guard (i think, ahem, correct me im wrong andrew ), and kareem was debateably more important.

[Andrew]

I did mis-read that bit about Jerry West. But in any event that part of my post wasn't a correction, just noting a few facts about the guards who have been named the Finals MVP. And yes, Magic was the only guard to win the award more than once.

You have brought up an interesting point, and it's a valid assertion; the shooting percentages of guards is often lower in the playoffs due to the tougher defense and fatigue from a long season, and the playoffs are a time when the best scorers must provide a boost for their team when they need it most.

Which brings us to your other point, that big men shoot much better percentages as they are generally able to take higher percentage shots and providing they get good looks and their teammates keep feeding them the ball, they can continue to capitalise on their talents around the basket as well as their natural advantage.

I just think that the number of guards who have been Finals MVP and their role on the team is a more telling sign of the importance big men have in winning championships. Your first post reinforces that idea by showing the advantage that larger players have.

[magius]

youre killing me andrew. you're killing me. i typed all that and you just said what i meant without even thinking twice. seriously, you australians, you steal everything! you have the hot girls, the nice beaches, the cool accent, you get to say "no worries" and "mate" all the time....... hell, come to think of it, their are probably more australian actors in american movies than their are americans! bloody australians.......

well you know what andrew? you know what? you said it, but I proved!...... i think. so there! eat that! hmph.

[Andrew]

well you know what andrew? you know what? you said it, but I proved!...... i think. so there! eat that! hmph.

I'll give you that.

hell, come to think of it, their are probably more australian actors in american movies than their are americans! bloody australians.......

Yeah, but they're not all actually Australian. Some of them we've just claimed as our own. Their honourary Australian citizenships will no doubt be torn up as soon as they get involved in some reputation-shattering scandal.

[magius]

ah ha! your bandwagonners! the lot of you are bandwagonners! along for the ride, gone for the slide! bloody australians........

anyway, i was just thinking about this and you know what? if i were an owner i would tell my gm to just keep stringing along the picks (trading to future years with teams you believe are going to suck) until i reach a draft with a legitimate big man i believe in. There's really no point building around anything but 6'11 I'd keep stockpiling picks until i reached the draft and a big man i believed in and then i'd go and a picking spree and use all my picks in that one year drafting an instant roster that could eventually play and grow together for the better part of 20 years

you say my attendance would suck? Who cares! i'm rich! and besides, my attendance would suck anyway if i were just a mere first or second round playoff team.

i dont think id really do this if i were an owner, but its fun to think i would

[Matt]

Billups shot 51% in finals though
his assists also dropped in each series from 7.2 5.7 5.7 to 5.2 in the Finals
basically Billups played his natural way which is not a pass first PG, he's really a SG but Brown makes him play a PG style game....that's what kinda stunted his game in the first 3 series, but in the Finals he went away from that

I wonder if Brown could have won a championship with Malone and Stockton in their primes?????

[whlee75]

I wonder if Brown could have won a championship with Malone and Stockton in their primes?????

i'm positive he could have......if jordan would have let him

[Jackal]

It's not as if Sloan was a bad coach. Malone & Stockton could've won rings with Jerry Sloan.

Just take away some guy named Mike and a Chicago Bulls team, voila, they have their rings.

[Matt]

well if Sloan was such a good coach he would have instructed Ostertag to break MJ's kneecaps

[Jackal]

Lol, Jackson just seemed to be a better coach then Sloan, after all...I suppose Jackson is the one who told Mike to push Russel off of him to get a good look at the basket.

[magius]

hey, lets not forget the bulls only stopped the jazz directly twice, its not like utah would've dominated ala chicago if chicago werent around. At most they would've won two championships, and even that we dont know considering their were some other good teams around during the day lets face it, malone and stock just arent championship material, its not the end of the world, but at the end of the day thats the way it is. They are both second tier great players in my book. let me explain:

great players + championship + playoff mvp = first tier (jordan, hakeem, kareem, magic, larry, shaq, duncan)

great players - championship = second tier (stockalone, kidd [unless he manages to win one], barkley, ewing, dominique)

they're all top 50 material dont get me wrong, but some greats are inevitably greater than others. Their can only be one I mean, come on, individual stats are all well and good, but when it comes down to it, its simple, its gravy, did you win or didnt you? Were you undoubtebly the number one reason you won? These in my mind are the two most important questions in defining unarguable greatness.

back more on topic, sloan is a good coach, look what he did with this years utah, and it is admirable that he stuck with a team even through a rebuilding era. If sloan had told ostertag to break jordans kneecaps, jordan would've still dribbled circles around russell