LeBron James headed back to the Cavaliers

[Alpha_]

They will be needing a third team (I guess) if they're not willing to include Wiggins in K-Love trade.

[Vintage]

I wonder if the sight of people leaving the stands in Miami with a lot of minutes remaining in game 6 last year or this year's game 4 had anything to do James's choice.
What's the point of feeling loyal to a fan base of frontrunners?

[Andrew]

If anything, I'd say that the Heat losing the Finals would have been a bigger factor in his decision, rather than the actions of a contingent of their fans. It's an interesting question: if the Heat had won the Finals, or at least not been beaten as convincingly as they were, would it have made a difference?

Looking back on some of the comments that LeBron's made since leaving the Cavaliers, returning to Cleveland would appear to be something he was always interested in doing at some point, so it's fair to say that it's not a recent thought he's had or just something that he's saying to appease Cavs fans who might still feel bitter. It seems feasible that the nature of the Heat's loss set him thinking that the timing was right though; who's to say that the reunion would be happening this soon if the Heat had won their third straight title?

[_Steve_]

If anything, I'd say that the Heat losing the Finals would have been a bigger factor in his decision, rather than the actions of a contingent of their fans. It's an interesting question: if the Heat had won the Finals, or at least not been beaten as convincingly as they were, would it have made a difference?

Looking back on some of the comments that LeBron's made since leaving the Cavaliers, returning to Cleveland would appear to be something he was always interested in doing at some point, so it's fair to say that it's not a recent thought he's had or just something that he's saying to appease Cavs fans who might still feel bitter. It seems feasible that the nature of the Heat's loss set him thinking that the timing was right though; who's to say that the reunion would be happening this soon if the Heat had won their third straight title?

To answer your first question, I think LeBron wouldn't have left after a three-peat. Even if they'd lost a close 7 game series, I think he would've sticked with the Heat, when he'd seen any chances of getting back stronger and competing for a title next year.
I think I've already gave an answer to question No. 2. If the Heat were still a cow he could realistically milk for another ring, he would have delayed his departure for Cleveland for certain.

[NovU]

But why give up Wiggins when you don't have to? Why not go for broke and try to pry Love away while keeping Wiggins? With LeBron, Kyrie, and a handful of capable role players...well, you've got a hell of a team, at least on paper.

There's no need to jump the gun and include Wiggins in the deal. The Cavs just got LeBron James back, there's no need for desperation moves. The Timberwolves, on the other hand, have the ticking clock of Love's expiring contract, combined with his complete lack of interest in re-signing. As benji said, the offers likely aren't going to get much better from here on out.

That's not to say it would be unfathomable to trade Wiggins for Love, but with the Timberwolves rapidly losing leverage - and time - there's no need for the Cavs to put him on the table straight away.

2 years is little time. You want to show LBJ that the Cavs are not incapable anymore. Varejao was the second best guy last time LBJ was there. That remains unchanged. Love for Wiggins speculation exists because of their expectation is enormous even for upcoming season. Vegas has them on top as next season's champion by large margin. A lot of people have them as the East's top dog with a guaranteed route to the Finals. 45-50 wins will be an underachievement due to ballooned expectations. All the while you probably want to keep LBJ happy before his 2 years is up.



I agree with Nick. Wiggins's value is very high as of right now. He has quite a loose handle. He was not that good in college. You just don't know how this kid will pan out to be. You can't say it's all sunshine and rainbow with this #1 pick. I'm just not against idea of landing an established superstar rather than scrambling to find minutes and role to develop a young talent to maximum. Sure the Cavs can go after Love later but if they can get him in a surefire deal right now, I don't see why not.

But... I'm fully expecting the Cavs' incompetency to be the factor once again. They will probably continue to struggle to find another legit star player to complement LBJ, as usual. Let's go find another Larry Hughes.

[Andrew]

That's all very well and good, but it doesn't change the fact that you don't have to put Wiggins out there straight away. With the Timberwolves losing their leverage and quality deals disappearing off the table, you shouldn't open with the offer that gives up all your assets.

Again, I'm not saying you can't trade Wiggins for Love. I'm just saying, don't open with that offer; see what you can get done without giving up that asset.

To answer your first question, I think LeBron wouldn't have left after a three-peat. Even if they'd lost a close 7 game series, I think he would've sticked with the Heat, when he'd seen any chances of getting back stronger and competing for a title next year.
I think I've already gave an answer to question No. 2. If the Heat were still a cow he could realistically milk for another ring, he would have delayed his departure for Cleveland for certain.

I'm inclined to agree. At the very least, I'd say he'd have opted into the final year of his contract for an attempt at four in a row, or three overall, depending on what exactly went down this past season. Had they not won a championship this upcoming season, perhaps the homecoming would take place next year instead.

[benji]

2 years is little time. You want to show LBJ that the Cavs are not incapable anymore. Varejao was the second best guy last time LBJ was there. That remains unchanged.

Irving?

Vegas has them on top as next season's champion by large margin.

1. They're tied with the Spurs and barely above the Thunder and Bulls.
2. "Vegas" jacked up the odds because a ton of morons would be placing bets immediately. You don't leave a team seeing that much action at 60-1 LeBron or no LeBron.

[Sauru]

As for the K-Love talk, i would easily trade Wiggins for K-Love. Why wouldn't you?

for me the issue is not would i trade wiggins for him (i would) the issue is why would i if i dont have to? all the cavs have to do is offer the best deal from the teams love is willing to sign on with long term. now if love was willing to sign on long term with anyone then the value for him would be really high but since there are only a handful of teams he would even consider doing that with it drops the asking price by a ton. if the wolves somehow get wiggins for love then they got a steal and should all go out and celebrate. when players are saying they are gone the team with them usually gets jack shit in return

[NovU]

Of course 2014 Ford is going to be half price in no time. But some pay more and gets it now. My point was that Kevin Love is not a door crasher item at Black Friday and Boxing Day sale, yet. It just seems extremely unlikely for the Wolves to accept no-Wiggins trade given the reports so far at this point. Sure the Wolves might be walking down the wrong alley and eventually get mugged but right now, report says it's Wiggins or no deal so I'd rather talk Wiggins now than about the long uncertain future ahead.

And given CLE's history with LBJ, they'll probably fuck up at the end and bring in fat Shaq and Larry Hughes.

2 years is little time. You want to show LBJ that the Cavs are not incapable anymore. Varejao was the second best guy last time LBJ was there. That remains unchanged.

Irving?

Why? Aren't we the same idiots that claimed Pau was as good or better player than Kobe? Or Chandler better than Melo? Or even you claiming Oden having a better career than many others incl Olowkandi?

Vegas has them on top as next season's champion by large margin.

1. They're tied with the Spurs and barely above the Thunder and Bulls.
2. "Vegas" jacked up the odds because a ton of morons would be placing bets immediately. You don't leave a team seeing that much action at 60-1 LeBron or no LeBron.

Right. Expectation is quite high. Just look at Sauru and Mandick saying Irving, Varejao + scrubs/unknown are far better for LBJ than Wade, Bosh + cap space, instantly.

[NovU]

ESPN's Chris Broussard is reporting that the Timberwolves will not include Kevin Love in a two-way trade to the Cavaliers if Andrew Wiggins is not included in the deal.

The Cavs, on the other hand, say they have no intentions of moving Wiggins in order to get Love, although that could possibly change if push comes to shove. In any case, there's no doubt the Cavs want Love, and whether they can get a third team involved, or persuade the Wolves to deal without getting Wiggins, remains to be seen. Stay tuned. Jul 14 - 12:08 AM

Looks like they finally clarified their stance. The Cavs will NOT include Wiggins and the Wolves will NOT accept a trade with no Wiggins in it. Perhaps the Wolves will change their mind as their position weakens in time but the Cavaliers are also running the risk at any moment other team with a legitimate offer to take him.

Love stated that he'd sign a long term with the Cavaliers, if traded. But as a UFA, there could appear number of teams that he'd prefer.

Looks like fun times are ahead. More Love talk to come indeed.

[Sauru]

Right. Expectation is quite high. Just look at Sauru and Mandick saying Irving, Varejao + scrubs/unknown are far better for LBJ than Wade, Bosh + cap space, instantly.

remove james and irving is the best player for either cleveland or miami and if they can get love then its not even a question of what team is better for james. wade is washed up, why people are expecting him to suddenly lead the team again is beyond me

[NovU]

Because Wade in his much less played minutes last season produced nearly just as many wins as Irving with stunted growth problem. And Wade was allegedly willing to come much cheaper than Irving, possibly difference of 6-8 millions per season.

if they can get love then its not even a question of what team is better for james.

The Heat were 54 wins team last season and 66 wins in previous one. If Bosh and Wade took less money and LBJ stayed around, I'm sure they could have improved from 54 wins. This would have put them in a position where they could contend instantly for another good stretch.

The Cavaliers are rebuilding and trying to win at the same time now, that's with Love or not. As benji said, the Cavs still would have hole in their game even after the possible Love trade. In theory, LBJ ditched a 60 wins caliber team for a team that'd be lucky to win 50 or 55-60 with Love in their perfect scenario.

My opinion is that the Heat only needed to make adjustment whereas the Cavaliers need to make changes, taking longer to get to where the Heat could have gotten instantly, possibly years (or never). You think Melo doesn't want to win? I'd say the similar for LBJ the cop out quitter.

[Sauru]

Because Wade in his much less played minutes last season produced nearly just as many wins as Irving with stunted growth problem. And Wade was allegedly willing to come much cheaper than Irving, possibly difference of 6-8 millions per season.

if they can get love then its not even a question of what team is better for james.

The Heat were 54 wins team last season and 66 wins in previous one. If Bosh and Wade took less money and LBJ stayed around, I'm sure they could have improved from 54 wins. This would have put them in a position where they could contend instantly for another good stretch.

The Cavaliers are rebuilding and trying to win at the same time now, that's with Love or not. As benji said, the Cavs still would have hole in their game even after the possible Love trade. In theory, LBJ ditched a 60 wins caliber team for a team that'd be lucky to win 50 or 55-60 with Love in their perfect scenario.

My opinion is that the Heat only needed to make adjustment whereas the Cavaliers need to make changes, taking longer to get to where the Heat could have gotten instantly, possibly years (or never). You think Melo doesn't want to win? I'd say the similar for LBJ the cop out quitter.

all i am saying is love/irving is far better than wade/bosh. miami could of improved their team if everyone took less money but the cavs can also improve their team. imo the cavs are the better option if he wants to win more rings. the heat were only going to keep getting worse while the cavs are going to keep getting better. i think the fact that its clear wade is washed up is a big factor in why james wanted to move on plus there is the fact that its his home. you call him a quitter and you are right, he quit cleveland and ran off to miami and he saw the back lash. he became one of the most hated players ever. how people see you plays a major role in your legacy and i am positive he knows this. going back to cleveland is the only way people start to like him again outside of miami

its clear we wont ever agree on this though

[benji]

DarkoMeter hypothetical nine man rotation, minutes played, all 82 games:

Code: Select all

thompson,tristan   34.0
irving,kyrie   34.0
jack,jarrett   29.2
waiters,dion   34.0
varejao,anderson   34.0
deng,luol   34.0
dellavedova,matt   14.6
zeller,tyler   14.6
gee,alonzo   14.6

34-48

Same rotation with Dwayne Wade replacing Irving: 33-49

Same rotation with LeBron James replacing Deng: 54-28
+Love replacing Thompson: 65-17

Losing C.J. Miles was a big blow, if they had kept him and got LeBron I'd have them as a contender, if they then got Love while giving up say Varejao, Thompson and Waiters for him, I'd pencil them in for a ring.

[SoF'nAwesome]

I don't understand what you guys don't agree on. Did LeBron choose the better team?

I think it's 80% sentiment and 20% rings for LeBron choosing Cleveland. A bunch of young and up comers. Who knows? Even Bennett might become a good player. Worst case in Cleveland would be that LeBron will have to take his team to the playoffs all by himself. With Irving, Waiters, Varejao, Bennett and Wiggins playing terribly. And all of them playing below expectations is highly unlikely.

But worst case in Heat was already the case last season. Wade not being able to play the role he was supposed to, Bosh being highly inconsistent. Bosh might do better this season, but it would have not been logical for LeBron to expect that Wade would play like it's 2012-13. Also, the fact that Miami bench or any other player except Bosh & Wade had not much to offer certainly played a part in that decision.

If I had to bet, I would name Pacers the ECF next season.

[NovU]

Give last season Wade same minutes allocated throughout 82 games at same performance level per minute base (replacing Irving), there shouldn't be any stats with reduced number in the win column. Wade was far more effective than Irving as long as he was able to stay on the floor.

I only hate James going to Cleveland for one reason: It fools people into think Irving is this great guard who just needed help. He sucks but could get better. I don't know about a star but at least slightly above average. If i'm Cleveland, I trade Irving,Waiters, Bennett, and picks for Love, Dieng, and Rubio. Hell I would throw in Wiggins too. Wiggins is a SF anyway. Man, they fucked up not getting Noel last year.

[benji]

Give last season Wade same minutes allocated throughout 82 games at same performance level per minute base (replacing Irving), there shouldn't be any stats with reduced number in the win column. Wade was far more effective than Irving as long as he was able to stay on the floor.

What part of:

minutes played, all 82 games

Didn't you understand?

Wade's not going to maintain that efficiency when like Irving he's the only effective offensive option on the floor. Even LeBron only boosts them to 44-38 when replacing Irving.

It's Waiters or Jack you want to most replace in that rotation, not Irving.

[NovU]

What is it that you are even doing here with that weird shit that tells nothing.

If I need to comment regardless whatever the point you are trying to get cross, I get the feeling that formula you're using seems way too strict and restrictive. Part of the reason Jarrett Jack declined so much was because of Irving and similarity in their skillset. Wade's a natural SG. Jarrett Jack's sudden decline as above average player to shitty player would have not happened alongside Wade. Jack shared floor with Irving most of the time in Cleveland.

Wade's not going to maintain that efficiency when like Irving he's the only effective offensive option on the floor.

Is this about ORtg or raw stats like ppg, ast/to stuff? Wade has experience as the only effective offensive option in his days with Miami. He was still extremely productive as his PER suggest.

It's Waiters or Jack you want to most replace in that rotation, not Irving.

IIRC I was having discussion only because there are claims that Irving is a better player than Wade when there's absolutely no proof supporting that. Irving in his 3 seasons in the NBA always and consistently has been an average player. Wade, despite the decline, was a very highly effective player on the floor, especially with good rest.

[benji]

Wade was 32 with shot knees. You're nuts if you think he would maintain his efficiency while boosting his usage playing on that Cleveland team last year. It'd look a lot more like 2008 Wade than 2009 Wade.

[NovU]

Well, being hypothetical just one more time, at least I believe we both could come to an agreement that it would have been not too much worse, for the Cavs if Irving's usage% would have evenly distributed among players like Jack, Deng, and Waiters who probably would have played more to their strength as they like to have ball in their hands or somewhere.

Just sprinkle bit of well rested Wade on top, I think you're looking at free upgrade from ice cream to a McFlurry.

[benji]

Well, being hypothetical just one more time, at least I believe we both could come to an agreement that it would have been not too much worse, for the Cavs if Irving's usage% would have evenly distributed among players like Jack, Deng, and Waiters who probably would have played more to their strength as they like to have ball in their hands or somewhere.

Yeah, let's take some possessions away from the 109 ORtg guy and give them to the 102, 99 (already at 26.9% usage just slightly less than Irving's 28.2%!) and 106 ones.

Varejao (108, 14.3)-Thompson (109, 17.4)-Deng (108, 19.9)-Waiters (107, 25.3)-Irving (107, 27.8): 108 ortg, 104.7 ppg
Varejao (102, 15.1)-Thompson (102, 18.4)-Deng (101, 21.0)-Waiters (100, 26.7)-Jack (100, 16.8): 101 ortg, 98.0 ppg
Varejao (109, 14.5)-Thompson (109, 17.7)-Deng (109, 20.2)-Waiters (107, 25.6)-Wade (109, 27.6): 109 ortg, 105.6 ppg
Varejao (117, 13.6)-Thompson (117, 16.6)-LeBron (117, 32.3)-Waiters (115, 24.1)-Irving (116, 26.5): 117 ortg, 113.1 ppg

[NovU]

How does this model of yours perform in the real world? How does it weigh creating/protecting possession ability(stl, dreb)? I guess it obviously carries unavoidable shortcomings in defense. On and off stats has team DRtg getting worse by 5.7 points with Irving on the floor(while improving by mere 1.7 points offensively). How does it try to offset this or does it even attempt to?




Irving can be perceived as very average by data from boxscoregeeks(or slightly above avg but w/ halted imporvement), also supported by various stats from the b-r. Notice how he fits the bill 'avg' all across the board. He literally has nothing standing out.

20 PER on 28 usg% is nothing spectacular and 'avg' is fitting especially for a player that plays little to minus defense.

Wade's 1775 MP / 27.9 usage% / 5.5 WS / 22.6 PER
Irving's 2496 MP / 28.2 usage% / 6.7 WS / 20.1 PER
Difference 721 MP / 0.3 usage% / 1.2 WS
(WP actually has Wade higher at 7.1 wins produced compared to Irving's 5.1. No surprise, SG has lesser competition.)

Usage rate is nearly identical. Wade under careful management played 721 less minutes than Irving, yet Wade produced wins at much better rate, again supported by better PER and WS48 at little less usage, efficient! This only leaves 1.2 wins and 721 minutes to make up for the rest of the team. Obviously, this is an easy job. You could probably get away even with a minus player like Waiters if 4 other players on the court take on the little burden and step up.

That's my brief process off top of my head. D obviously is a later issue and this by no means is perfect but I find it more reliable than gut feeling(& general perception) often times.





But projection based on all ORtg model looks even more flawed. By that logic you should believe Isaiah, Dragic, Curry, Lowry etc are superior players than Kobe or Wade ever was. Hey, Dragic has nearly 120 ORtg on 26%usg, should I add 5 more wins than Wade/Kobe in their prime?

[benji]

If I swap Wade and Irving completely unchanged their Win Shares will swap order simply because the Heat won 21 more games. It's not a statistic that takes individual player performances and combines into a collective stat. It takes a collective number and distributes them among the players on the team. Same with the boxscoregeeks garbage.

I have no idea what the rest of that gibberish is supposed to mean. What are you arguing against? The idea that a 32 year old Wade with bad knees wouldn't turn last year Cavs into a playoff team? If you noticed the Wade-led Cavs do produce a better offensive number but it's pretty negligible compared to the one with Irving, both of them especially in comparison to Jack taking the backcourt spot.

It's a five man lineup at 48+x82*, of course it's going to be noisy and doesn't project anything to run with, it's merely to illustrate the possession usage in stark terms by holding the other four players constant.

Varejao (114, 13.8)-Thompson (114, 16.9)-Deng (113, 19.3)-Waiters (112, 24.5)-2009 Wade (113, 35.7): 114 ortg, 110.2 ppg


*This is why the ORtg's only differ by a point or two in any direction as they are accounting for literally every team possession, something that will never happen in real life.

[NovU]

WS awards the player on the winning team but the player still needs to be capable and it reflects to league avg. You are still going to have a great WS if You're Kevin Love and shoots way above avg at 60% and bring down 15 reb. Winning is a bonus not a game changer. Kobe in Lakers shit seasons still was the best Kobe. Even your ORtg suggests so. I actually can see usefulness in your ORtg model but is not even an evidence in this discussion. Irving is no better Robin to LBJ than either Bosh and Wade unless your argument is that he'll finally develop into a star.

My gibberish aligns with your reasons why you claim Pau is better than Kobe, Oden over other busts, etc. Argument is valid. Wade with no knees was still extremely valuable because of superior efficiency. He definitely would have contributed more on calling but the Heat were bored and safe with guaranteed 2nd seed.

[benji]

I don't have an "ORtg model" it's possession based.

And I don't claim Pau is better than Kobe.

Speaking of Kobe, he played on one below .500 team, 2004-05. Compare that season to 2000, 2002, 2004, 2011 and 2013 regarding his individual numbers vs. his WS and WS/48.

I like the "[Irving] finally develop into a star" line. He's fucking 22 and already pretty close to the top of the second tier of PGs (Conley, Deron), his "second draft" time is going to be LeBron boosted.