Nash just sealed MVP #2 in my book.

Apparently, Stoudemire was working his three-point shot in the off-season, which is going to only further improve his repertoire. If he can consistently knock them down, a la Okur, Nash is only going to have more options.

Apparently, Stoudemire was working his three-point shot in the off-season, which is going to only further improve his repertoire. If he can consistently knock them down, a la Okur, Nash is only going to have more options.

Do you remember that first three he ever made? It looked UGLY! Do you think he can make it consistently shooting like that? I'm not too sure he can really improve his three-point shooting. Plus, usually 3 point shots for big men are a waste of time. Look at Antoine Walker. Someone please boo or shoot him when he tries to take a three.

Yes, I realize Dirk is a big exception, but once again, an exception. Furthermore, 3 pointers just don't seem to fit in with Amare...especially seeing how ugly that shot was.

The first three he ever made was a while ago when he was a rookie, he had minimal range then. He hit a few three's last season, and in the last game of the season went 2-2 since the game didn't matter much he decided to check his range. For a big like him though, taking three's isn't really important, I don't think it ever hurts to expand your range, or improve a part of your game, sometimes desperation shots are needed.

shareef over his career playing starter minutes is 20 and 9 guy. does that make him equal to marion as a starter?

Only if you compare on those stats. The players are quite similar except for two areas, one SAR is merely average in his turnover rate, while Marion regularly finishes top ten at his position and half the time in the top five. Oh, and Marion's a superb defensive player, SAR occasionally tries to make a case that he's one of the least enthusiastic defensive players in the league.

I didn't read all of this thread, even someone like me isn't interested in discussions of Tim Thomas' starter qualifications. (Me, personally, I wouldn't let him start after he finished as the worst defensive small forward in the league two years in a row. And has never been better than average at best offensively.)

But I will note this about Nash. How does Nash "make players better"? By stopping them from dribbling. Nash dominates the ball thus we don't have guys like James Jones and Raja Bell trying to put it on the floor and create.

Jones usage rate last season was 12.8, this year it's 14.8. Two more possessions per 40 minutes. However, his turnover rate and assist rates were 9.7 and 12.8 in Indiana, he was shooting on 77.5% of his possessions. This year those numbers are 4.3 and 6.6, allowing him to fire it up on 89.1% of his possessions. His shot distribution has also changed, 90% of his shots were jumpers in Indiana (50% shooting, 79% assisted) now it's 95% (51%, 88%) so he's just sitting and firing jumpers more often, he's not shooting better really. (A good thing, since 29% (!!!) of his close shots were blocked in Indiana)

Compare Raja Bell:
In Utah: 19.4 usage rate, 8.7 turnover rate, 10.1 assist rate. 86% jumpers (48% shooting, 86% assisted)
Phoenix: 14.6 usage rate, 7.1 turnover rate, 15.4 assist rate. 92% jumpers (56%, 84%)
Here Bell is using almost five fewer possessions and also taking more jumpers again indications he's not needing to create shots for himself.

Boris Diaw:
Atlanta: 15.4 usage rate, 15.4 turnover rate, 26.4 assist rate. 66% jumpers (34%, 63% assisted)
Phoenix: 17.6 usage rate, 11.6 turnover rate, 29.5 assist rate. 50% jumpers (40%, 62% assisted)
Where's Diaw's change? He's getting more close shots. In effect, he has replaced Amare as the man flying to the basket in Phoenix's offense. (48% of Amare's shots were inside, he shot 71% and was assisted 67%...Diaw is 50%, 65%, 48%...20% of Amare's attempts were dunks, 4% of Diaw's are...the major difference...it's worth noting Diaw's assisted rate on inside shots is even lower than it was in Atlanta)

So how has Phoenix changed from this year to last? Let's look at the two rosters (top ten players), ranked by amount of Suns minutes they played. Then I'll toss in their PERs, usage rates and points per zero point possessions.

81.9% - Joe Johnson (15.18 PER, 17.6 Usg, 2.56 pZPP)
79.5% - Shawn Marion (21.76 PER, 19.1 Usg, 2.65 pZPP)
73.0% - Amare Stoudemire (26.69 PER, 25.2 Usg, 3.17 pZPP)
71.8% - Quentin Richardson (13.59 PER, 17.1 Usg, 2.21 pZPP)
65.0% - Steve Nash (22.06 PER, 22.0 Usg, 3.09 pZPP)
---
27.5% - Leandro Barbosa (12.69 PER, 17.9 Usg, 2.32 pZPP)
26.4% - Steven Hunter (14.68 PER, 12.3 Usg, 2.69 pZPP)
25.2% - Jim Jackson (10.93 PER, 15.3 Usg, 2.29 pZPP)
9.1% - Jake Voskuhl - (8.64 PER, 10.7 Usg, 1.94 pZPP)
8.9% - Walter McCarty - (8.08 PER, 12.2 Usg, 1.79 pZPP)


84.5% - Shawn Marion (23.22 PER, 19.2 Usg, 2.90 pZPP)
77.0% - Raja Bell (12.97 PER, 14.6 Usg, 2.78 pZPP)
73.4% - Steve Nash (23.54 PER, 24.0 Usg, 3.04 pZPP)
71.3% - Boris Diaw (17.31 PER, 17.6 Usg, 2.75 pZPP)
45.8% - Kurt Thomas (13.29 PER, 13.7 Usg, 2.37 pZPP)
---
44.0% - James Jones (13.29 PER, 14.7 Usg, 2.58 pZPP)
35.4% - Eddie House (15.56 PER, 24.1 Usg, 2.26 pZPP)
33.1% - Leandro Barbosa (15.36 PER, 17.8 Usg, 2.83 pZPP)
9.2% - Pat Burke (10.97 PER, 19.2 Usg, 1.98 pZPP)
7.5% - Tim Thomas (16.30 PER, 17.5 Usg, 2.91 pZPP)
2.8% - Brian Grant (11.27 PER, 12.9 Usg, 2.89 pZPP)

The Suns diversified their team and are deeper. Something I overlooked in the offseason, they've ignored guys who need to put the ball on the floor (Bell, Jones, Kurt Thomas are all jump shooters exclusively) for their secondary positions, but got one in House (who had as an good of season last season) for when Nash is not on the floor. Their offense fell off earlier in the year and their defense was near tops in the league, now they're going back towards last years ratio more. They came with a more extreme defensive philosophy this year, they stopped trying to play as much help defense. Only 49% of opponents jumpers are assisted, only 37% of opponents close shots are assisted. Last year the Spurs (best team in the league defensively) were at 54% and 45%. With good reputation defenders in Diaw and Bell, and statistically supported great defenders like Marion and Jones, and someone who's an interesting case in Nash they've decided to go one-on-one instead of allowing easy passes. They lost Amare, Q and JJ from their roation but added Bell, Diaw, Thomas, Jones, House and now the other Thomas. Bell and Jones are lateral moves from Q and JJ essentially. Amare is replaced then with three players Diaw, Thomas and House.

Since Kobe was brought up. I haven't examined it, however one assumes Kobe using possessions is also taking away the turnover opportunites for his teammates. The reason this is important is that a turnover is always a lost possession. It will result in zero points. Even a shot from a guy who's a 30% shooter 51% of the time keeps the possession for his team or results in a basket. (30% of the time he makes it, plus 30% of the 70% of the time he misses his team will get the offensive rebound)

That said.

Saying Nash should be MVP because the Suns are winning and the team is "no good otherwise" ignores the realities of the teams construction. Saying he should be MVP because they lose games when he doesn't play is also a stupid argument. Take Dirk off the Mavs, Wade off the Heat, Kobe off the Lakers, LeBron off the Cavaliers, Marion off the Suns, Pierce off the Celtics, and all of these teams would struggle to be as good as they are with those players. This is simple logic, but apparently lost on people because otherwise why would they argue that a team losing one of it's best players and a top three player at his position is justification for that players MVP award? That argument applies to at least 15 players in the league.

Nash wasn't the MVP last year. Why? Amare was simply a god, Marion bounced back from his down year and the Suns stopped playing anybody but their top five guys. I argue in Dirk's favor because their next best player after Dirk was Jason Terry, who would've been the fourth best player on the Suns. The gap between Dirk and the next player on his team being the biggest for any of the superstars on good teams. (Unless you're going to make the argument that Nash also made the Mavericks a better team by leaving it.) Using the same setup, I noted weeks ago that I have Wade as the MVP this year (and I notice Hollinger has posted an article on ESPN Insider today I assume making a similar argument) since I factor a players production, team record and production distance from the next best player on his team.

Since I'm really starting to ramble I'll restate a point I've made before. Infact, I will quote myself on March 9th, 2005.

The other question is why is Nash getting MVP consideration for this? He was the second best player, the second best point guard in the league, on THE BEST regular season team (not second best) in 2002-03 for the Mavericks. Yet he got exactly one MVP vote. He’s going to get 1000 times that this season. That year Dirk was just as good as Amare is this year (27.66…which is not as good as Dirk this season, which is without Nash…) while the Mavericks had nobody as good as Marion (Finley: 18.67, LaFrentz: 18.36, Van Exel: 16.83) and played nobody except Dirk more than 70% of minutes. And he was only at .788.

What’s different from that year? The Mavericks were the best team in the league on offense by a mile that year just like the Suns. (They were also 9th on defense, while the Suns are 17th) That team ran to the West Finals where they were beat by the Spurs (Nash will likely get a deja-vu feeling this year) who then won it all.

If Nash wasn’t MVP then. If Stockton was never MVP. Then how can Nash be the MVP now?

Amare wound up being a slightly better player than Dirk was in 2002. And Nash did win the MVP. But the point still stands. As does the question.

People like to point to Stockton for Nash, and it's a more apt comparison than one thinks. Those Jazz teams of 1996-98 were second or first on offense, had two guys of 20+ PERs, one more guy of 17+ and then only 5-7 guys of 13.5+. The composition of those teams were a lot like the Suns today.

That's enough bothering this forum with my stupid analysis...

You guys and your long posts and endless stats. Nash will win a record 69 straight MVPs. Book it.

Very nice post benji