Marion "Time For Me To Move On"

[---]

Well, if LA also threw in their 1st rounder, I think it totally makes sense. The Pacers get some cap relief and some bigs who can at least play, as well as 2 1st round draft picks - their own, assuming they still have it, which will be very high, and LA's. O'Neal's not sticking around much longer, and they're not going to be very good even with him.

The Lakers pick with Lamar/Jermaine/Kobe on the roster isn't gonna be very high, no where near high enough to merit trading Jermaine O'Neal for cap relief.

I know Utah loves Millsap, so this could be an issue, but I think Utah has the money for it (I believe all their top guys are locked up, plus they had almost as much invested in AK47 for a similar time frame), and Marion would be a great fit in Utah next to Deron Williams, Boozer, and Okur. Maybe another player from Indiana or LA gets shipped to Utah in this scenario, as well, to compensate for the loss of Millsap.

I don't see why Marion would be a good fit. He's played in uptempo systems his whole career and everyone know he scores best in transition and in the flow of a game. I don't think a grind it out half court team like the Jazz would fit his style at all. He'd still be an asset defensively, but trading your "diamond in the rough" in Millsap and arguably your best player in Kirilenko for a guy who's abilities don't suit your team (and he's wanting a $60 million extension) doesn't make any sense to me.

[grusom]

I still think Sauru had a good point about Marion wanting out via free agancy after this season, if the Suns did not trade him. Even though I agree that Marion is a much better player, and a much better fit in the Suns' system, than AK and Odom, I still think the Suns should try to get something in return for him.

Imagine this starting lineup:

C - Amare
PF - AK
SF - Boris Diaw/ Grant Hill (depending on Diaw's body fat percentage starting training camp)
SG - Raja Bell/ Barbosa
PG - Nash

that still looks like a championship contester to me, and best thing about it is, that it will for the next couple of years too. If Marion left for nothing next summer they would have a big hole to fill at PF next summer.

[Dwight Howard]

SUNS WILL MAKE A GREAT MISTAKE IF THEY LEFT MARION TO LEAVE! IT WILL BE THE SAME AS TRADING JOE JOHNSON FOR DIAW
JOHNSON IS A PERFECT SCORER AND DIAW IS AVERAGE NBA PLAYER ,IT WILL BE SO STUPID IF THEY LEFT MARION LEAVE!

[NovU]

C - Amare
PF - AK
SF - Boris Diaw/ Grant Hill (depending on Diaw's body fat percentage starting training camp)
SG - Raja Bell/ Barbosa
PG - Nash

i think ak is more of sf than pf. he used to play sf with malone, and now with boozer.

personally, i don't give too much credit to odom. so i think marion for odom is a bad deal. on a team with odom as a starter, sounds like first round team at most, maybe second if cos do good. it's been like that with wade/odom and kobe/butler/odom. again he might end up killing phx's chemistry. but i think kirilenko is worth a risk for phx. he's versatile and not too demanding. he played well alongside malone and at least for awhile, he flourished like a superstar. last year was bit sad tho. but i think he's adaptive and willing to take a loss in his stats for the team so should be a good fit on phx. as for marion, g'luck wherever u go.

[Christopherson]

i think ak is more of sf than pf.

His best seasons have come when he was allowed to play PF. There he can take advantage of his speed and quickness over the other 4's in the league. He wreaks havoc on defense when guarding 4's.

And yeah, that trade was terrible. Phoenix came out WAY ahead of everyone else, LA also came out like bandits while Utah and Indiana got totally screwed. As a Utah fan, Millsap is basically untouchable right now. I wouldn't trade him strait up for anything less than an above average shooting guard right now. I mean his PER was over 17 last year. Good luck finding me that shooting guard when you have to mach Millsap's 625k salary.

[el badman]

DIAW IS AVERAGE NBA PLAYER

Not really, no. A guy who can play pretty much at every position and get such consistent numbers for rebounds, assits, blocks and steals is not an average player in my book.

[Christopherson]

Except for the fact that Diaw's PER last year was 13, below that average of 15 for an NBA player. The year before was 17, so even if you take the last two NBA seasons together Diaw is an average NBA player.

[Andrew]

Marion also scares me. For one he turns 30 this season. He has logged mega-minutes in seasons playing 90+ games as well as having stints with Team USA. He is bound to slip sooner or later.

I suppose that's always going to be a concern when a player's logged a lot of minutes but at the same time I think it's a concern that's overblown these days. I know it's become trendy to write off players the moment they hit 30 but there's a lot of players who have logged a lot of games and minutes before they've hit 30 and they've kept going strong into their 30s. Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Karl Malone, John Stockton, Charles Barkley, Clyde Drexler, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon are all examples of that, to name just a few.

I think that Nash has been hiding that, but if he were to go to a team with say, Jordan Farmar as his point guard I doubt he would have the wide open looks and alley-oop dunks he benefits from these days.

I agree that the Suns' style of play and the presence of Nash certainly benefit Marion's strengths but it's not as though D'Antoni and Nash came along and turned a scrub into an All-Star calibre player. Even if he were to go to the Lakers he'd still be playing alongside a top player who demands the attention of the defense and is capable of finding teammates (though not to same extent as a point guard like Nash, of course) in Kobe Bryant.

If I were the Suns I would probably just wait this out.

Agreed, there's no advantage in immediately caving and seeking a trade. If nothing else, they'll lose leverage if it's apparent they want to ship Marion out by any means necessary. The fact that he can opt out is something they have to keep in mind though so if Marion's position doesn't change then they'll need to consider moving him while they still have leverage and before he can walk without the Suns getting anything in return.

[Christopherson]

Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Karl Malone, John Stockton, Charles Barkley, Clyde Drexler, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon are all examples of that, to name just a few.

These are exceptions, not rules. One could come up with a list of names of players whose careers bombed after they hit 30. Additionaly, I would argue that Marion relies on speed, quickness and athletic ability, skills that decline with age, more than the players you mentioned.

I agree that the Suns' style of play and the presence of Nash certainly benefit Marion's strengths but it's not as though D'Antoni and Nash came along and turned a scrub into an All-Star calibre player. Even if he were to go to the Lakers he'd still be playing alongside a top player who demands the attention of the defense and is capable of finding teammates (though not to same extent as a point guard like Nash, of course) in Kobe Bryant.

When Nash arrived, Marion became a much more efficent player. His shooting percentages jumped way up from what they had been previously in his career. Marion would not be nearly as valuable of a player if he was shooting 44% like he did early in his career to the 52% he shoots now.

[Andrew]

These are exceptions, not rules. One could come up with a list of names of players whose careers bombed after they hit 30. Additionaly, I would argue that Marion relies on speed, quickness and athletic ability, skills that decline with age, more than the players you mentioned.

One certainly could come up with a list of names whose careers declined steeply at that point or even earlier but you're generally looking at players who were already battling injury problems by that stage of their career. The names I mentioned were just some of the stars of the 90s who came immediately to mind. The players I mentioned are admittedly examples of best case scenarios but I think it's an exaggeration to say they're exceptions rather than the rule. It's not as though every NBA player's career goes into a sharp nosedive and he becomes unreliable or a shadow of his former self upon turning 30.

Obviously there's going to be some physical wear and tear by that point in the average player's career and there might already be a decline in their athleticism, though how gradual that decline will be depends on the individual and any additional wear and tear that has resulted from serious injuries. Marion is approaching an age where that will probably start being a factor so I do agree with you to an extent but most players around that age who have remained healthy are usually in the prime of their careers.

I'm not saying it isn't a concern but it seems to me there's no immediate danger of Marion suddenly becoming unreliable or ineffective because he's turning 30 barring a serious injury, which is a risk every player faces every time they step onto the court.

[Christopherson]

I'm not saying that Marion is going to suddenly become unreliable or ineffective, I'm just saying that generally when a player signs a long term contract at age 30, teams regret it. Currently Marion's production justifies his 16.4 million dollar sallary, as it probably will this upcomming season. However, if a team like Utah takes Marion in a deal and signs him to a 4 year 60 million dollar extension (which is probably about market value right now) there is a very good chance that when Marion is 34 and making 15 million dollars that contract will be crippling the franchise. That is why I don't like offering contracts to aging stars. They should be payed for what a team thinks they will produce for them over the life of the contract, not for what they have done in the past.

[benji]

I agree with the exception comment, that was around ten players out of the thousand or so over the same span. Jordan took a year and a half off, Robinson started at 24. Malone and Stockton are clearly exceptions.

The rest you mentioned all had declines the farther they got past thirty with most of them having their careers collapse in on themselves. I believe Christopherson's noting that Marion is 30, so he is at his peak, and it is only downhill from here, throw in that he's basically logged an extra season of minutes over a normal starter, and giving him a maximum contract extension begins to look iffy. (EDIT: I am correct.)

You can't say, well, Marion will be fine and be a great player until he's 35 because Karl Malone was. Marion will be 30 at the end of the season and will have likely logged 26,000+ regular season minutes by that point. Ewing had only logged 18,838 by 30, Olajuwon 21,812, Drexler 24,063, Pippen 22,285.

Marion would not be nearly as valuable of a player if he was shooting 44% like he did early in his career to the 52% he shoots now.

Shame on ye. You use PER but not eFG% or TS%. (And you are an evil liar also, Marion had a fg% of 44%, once, in 03-04, but 47-48% his first three years...you lying liar face.)

[TheMC5]

MC that is awful. Totally terrible and you should be ashamed. I'm not being sarcastic at all either. This is worse then the stuff you see on realgm.

We trade our best player, our franchise guy for not even one guy that would start on our team! Not to mention the fact that we take on a terrible contract. We wouldn't accept Bynum, Crittenton and Kwame, what in the world makes you think we'd accept a deal that has us taking much worse players with worse contracts and less potential? Please, think.

Talk to me half way through the season, when the Pacers are dead last in the East, and Jermaine O'Neal demands a trade for real.

I realize Indiana gets no one back who can fill JO's shoes, but they get draft picks, cap room, some badly needed 3-point shooting, and a good young player in Alando Tucker. Really, they could do much, much worse.

Also, I'm pretty sure Kwame, Bynam, and Crittenton don't meet the required salary to get JO. Might be wrong, though.

[Indy]

Talk to me half way through the season, when the Pacers are dead last in the East, and Jermaine O'Neal demands a trade for real.

You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. Even if the Pacers are dead last in the East (won't happen) and JO goes public with a trade demand, therefore lowering his value (won't happen) no team in that scenario would be stupid enough to approach the Pacers with that offer. It is insulting and moronic. You cannot honestly think a competent GM would accept a deal that hoses a team so terribly. I am not even going to try and refute your ridiculous argument to try and defend it because I don't think you can possibly really believe what you said.

Also, I'm pretty sure Kwame, Bynam, and Crittenton don't meet the required salary to get JO. Might be wrong, though.

Those 3 players was the basic Lakers offer, they left it up to the Pacers to match salaries. The Pacers demand was Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Kwame Brown and #17 pick, which ended up being JC. The Pacers also wanted to dump a contract like Dunleavy or Tinsley on the Lakers.

Let's look at the other trade scenario the Pacers were involved in. The Nets offered Nenad Kristic, Richard Jefferson and Jason Collins, the Pacers declined and asked for Marcus Williams instead of Collins.

Believe it or not, it is in the Pacers interest to improve if we are going to trade our best player.

[TheMC5]

I guess it depends on how you think the best way for Indiana to improve is. I'd go with basically all-out rebuilding, in which case I want cap relief (Kwame), draft picks (included), a good young player (Tucker), and some bigs to fill JO's shoes temporarily. All of those are satisfied in this scenario. And look at what Philly got for AI - Andre Miller and a draft pick, basically. What Indiana gets in this deal isn't far off from what Philly got. I think both you and Pacers brass are highly over-estimating the market for O'Neal. He's an injury-risk, for one, and has a monster contract for someone who only gets into 60 games a year. The only things that would have stopped me from pulling the trigger on the Nets deal are Richard Jefferson's contract, his injury concerns, and JO remaining in the East.

Even with Jefferson, Kristic, and Williams, the Pacers are at best #8 seed. So would you rather have a few seasons of late lottery selections/early playoff eliminations, or a couple of seasons of being really shitty, but getting high draft picks (potential franchise players), and having the cap space to sign some free agents? I know what I'd do.

[Sauru]

the problem with trading for picks is, if you make the other team that much better the pick is really worthless

[cyanide]

Even if the Pacers are dead last in the East (won't happen)

Why not? It could happen. They're not exactly in a great position as compared to the other teams in the east. If O'Neal gets injured, it's really hard to see them win games.

[The X]

I'm with Indy, the Pacers aren't stupid enough to give away Jermaine O'Neal....when healthy he is one of best big men in NBA....he's still got a lot of miles left in the tank....to give up O'Neal, obviously the team taking him, would have to take a salary like Dunleavy at minimum....any Laker deal has to be headlined by both Odom & Bynum, that's just how it is....I think fans of Pacers would prefer to see their franchise player stay than ship him away for nothing....

[Indy]

If the Pacers were to take the all out rebuilding course, your offer is still ridiculous and silly. We would need a player with superstar potential in return, ala Andrew Bynum at the very least. None of the players we get back in your trade even hold a torch to Andrew Bynum, and that is saying a whole lot.

Also, if the Pacers are as terrible if you think they are, then we're going to get a top 3 draft pick anyways and probably end up with a guy like Derrick Rose or OJ Mayo to team with Granger and JO. If that's the case, why the hell would we trade him for Alando Tucker? Who by the way, you've clearly never watched. I'm an Ohio State fan, I watch the big 10 all the time. If you think Alando Tucker is something worth trading a franchise player for, you've lost it.

[Sauru]

yeah i gotta agree with indy, its obvious simply by the offers the pacers have rejected that they wont just give away oneal

[Andrew]

You can't say, well, Marion will be fine and be a great player until he's 35 because Karl Malone was. Marion will be 30 at the end of the season and will have likely logged 26,000+ regular season minutes by that point. Ewing had only logged 18,838 by 30, Olajuwon 21,812, Drexler 24,063, Pippen 22,285.

That's true, though I still think players hitting the big three-oh is overblown at times. I definitely agree as far as the maximum contract is concerned though; the fact he's complaining about his contract when he's the highest paid player on the team with a hardly modest (even by NBA standards) deal of around $16 mil per year is hardly selfless either.

[BiGrEd819]

Marion's way of scoring is very unorthodox. every team wants a guy like him who could play multiple positions offensively ANd defensively. most of his points come from offrebnds, tip-ins, transition baskets. and its weird to say by looking at his shooting form but he is also a good set perimeter shooter. in other words, if the lakers do acquire marion, they dont necessarily have to run a play for him to score.

odom on the other hand is no doubt a very good player. however, whatever the reason may be, kobe-lamar is not working. the laker's first intetion for lamar when they acquired him 3 seasons ago was to play him as a ball-handling forward (point-forward). yet he is much more comfortable playing closer to the basket slashing and posting. as many will know he reaaally sux at shooting those mid range shots. basically kobe and lamar has a very similar style of scoring. they need the ball in their hands. uhhhhh and then ppl start asking why isnt lamar scoring more?why isnt he being more aggressive. WHY? cuz he has to do less of what he is good at and let kobe do what HE does best. So when kobe is scoring 40 pts a game how hard do u think it is for lamar to score? whereas a guy like marion could still get his 20pts plus simply by cleaning the glass and convert off turnovers (cuz u know he's a tank when he runs down the court off a steal)