by benji on Wed May 20, 2015 11:23 pm
Rules of Thumb:
-Unless rookies are spectacularly bad in their first season, receive minutes AND are 21+ they're unlikely to not at least be a rotation player. Unless of course their dad is the coach.
-If they're 23 or older, they're done, they won't be improving significantly.
-If they're 20 or younger, they are eight plus years from the start of their prime.
-The second year is more important, if they don't cut their turnovers that's a bad sign, if there's no improvements at all across the board that's a bad sign, if they get worse that's a horrible sign.
-Third year, age is really important here, if they're 24-25 or older, we're done, nothing more to discuss. If they're still 21-22, they have a couple more years ideally with another team to yet make a second leap.
Rookie years basically are setting the baseline. Players who have GREAT rookie seasons like Davis, Griffin, Paul, etc. are immediately establishing that they'll likely be historic all-time greats.
Tyreke Evans is an interesting case because he had a pretty good rookie season and he's continued to be a pretty good player, his rookie season scoring was inflated by various situations including the fact that he got to the line like mad. So people expected big leaps even though he couldn't shoot. It'd be interesting to see if the next New Orleans coach stops worrying about his role, accepts him for what he is and builds the rest of the non-Davis roster around him. He thrived with Jrue Holiday out and the ball in his hands as a point forward-guard as last season came down the stretch. The team was 18-19 when Holiday left the starting lineup and Evans took over the role, his assists and efficiency shot up and the team went 27-18. He played terribly in the playoffs though. Though most everyone not named Anthony Davis did as Monty Williams didn't seem to know his best lineups especially when they blew that lead. Oh, and that team should have never been playing at the 27th ranked pace. Especially with that roster.
Regarding Wiggins, Embiid should be the actual best player in this class and Jabari Parker still looks like a better NBA talent, but force-feeding Wiggins was ideal and his efficiency as a rookie on a terrible team doesn't say too much. As for Durant and Wall, they had dominating college careers and showed those traits in their first seasons. Wiggins didn't exactly live up to the hype when he hit Kansas.
That said...I had him rated as Al Thornton with actual defense coming into the league and his rookie numbers didn't exactly dispel that comparison.
I can't believe Noah Vonleh got so little run, he was always a very very intriguing prospect in the draft. He didn't even get playing time in the D-League before Charlotte brought him back to stash him on the end of the bench.
If the 2014 Draft improves in one year like the 2013 Draft....