Melo to Nets deal dead

[Lamrock]

Okay, you're a lost cause. Monta Ellis was the worst player in the NBA last season, but he averaged 25.5 PPG. Unfortunately, he did so by using nearly 30% of his team's possessions. What you fail to understand is that shots are finite in basketball. If you get Ellis, Kobe, Durant, Melo and Amar'e, the team score 135 PPG just because they're "great scorers". Even the worst teams in the league have guys who can score 20+ PPG, but that does not make them good players.

Once more thing I find amusing: You say that Lopez-Murphy-Melo gets them 40 wins this year. Do you think Murphy and Melo are worth 32 wins? They combined for half as many win shares last season...

[Cleveland wins]

I don't know if this has been mentioned but, it seems like the nets have been wanting to get rid of Devin Harris for a while. A while ago they offered the hornets Devin Harris and a 1st round pick for Chris Paul.

[Lamrock]

Pretty sure every team except Utah and Boston offered their PG and a first rounder for Paul.

[Sauru]

yeah just cause you would give up harris for paul does not mean you are trying to dump harris

[J@3]

He's not Al Harrington. Harrington's less efficient, but takes a few less shots and actually plays a lick of defense. Starting AK and Harrington over Melo and K-Mart is an upgrade defensively, and Harrington replaces Melo's chucking (and opens a couple more shots up for their real stars: Billups and Nene). Really hope for Denver's sake this goes down and they keep Billups, since they are getting a 110% return on Melo.

Melo's coming off a (probably fluke) career season, and he still isn't as good as a healthy Devin Harris. The hate is coming from the fact that he's fucking lame.

You... you think the Nuggets would be better with Al Harrington than Melo?

[Lamrock]

No, I think they would be better than Harrington and Kirilenko than Melo.

[Houndy]

If the Nets accept this trade, they're fucked. They'll miss the playoffs, Melo will ask for a trade, and Favors will shine.

The Bobcats will be a 5 or 6 seed, and give challenge to the team they will face. Utah is joining for the hell of it, and Denver would make the playoffs next year. Nuff said

[Lamrock]

Orlando, Miami, Boston, Chicago, Milwaukee and Atlanta are still a lot better than Charlotte. However, I think this deal is going to end up like this.

[J@3]

Why would it only be a good thing for NJ to pay the max to a guy who's a decent high-volume scorer, and below average at everything else? Its not like he's a star like Wade who can carry a team. Meanwhile, the Nuggets get an SF who is far more effective than Melo (.171 WS/48 > .145 WS/48; 117 Ortg/103 Drtg > 110 Ortg/109 Drtg), a very promising rookie, some promising picks and have a (far less expensive) replacement chucker in Harrington.

You're putting up textbook examples on how not to use advanced statistics. There's more to it than just comparing winshares and offensive ratings.

Player A:
ORtg: 109
DRtg: 104
WS/48: 0.160

Player B:
ORtg: 113
DRtg: 101
WS/48: 0.174

More on this later.

If Melo is below average at everything except scoring, then what is Kirilenko? He's not as good at rebounding, doesn't get as many assists and turns the ball over more despite a far lower usage rate. His D is obviously far superior but he's better than most in that department.

He is more efficient offensively than Melo but he's also assisted on 76% of his baskets compared to 42%. If he goes to Denver you're assuming he's going to maintain his efficiency and find someone to provide him the looks he's getting in Utah, because he can't create his own offense so his success there will solely rely on other players in the team (unlike Carmelo)

I don't even like Melo more than any other player in the league but you're going a bit over the top with some of these posts. It's like the Nets are trading for Adam Morrison or something. You could make the argument that Kirilenko's D would be better for the Nuggets than Melo's offensive game, but the argument that Melo sucks and every player with a TS% of 58 or more and an ORTg of 110+ is better than him regardless of any circumstances is a bit silly.

Also:

Player A = Kobe Bryant
Player B = Nazr Mohammed

[NovU]

Kirilenko hasn't even played at high level for several years now. The impact he brings to the team obviously isn't even close to Melo's game. I don't see how Lamrock believes Denver is better off without Melo but Kirilenko. My take on this trade still stands the same, that Denver is likely to return to rebuilding mode while NJN flourishes in a few years if able to surround Melo with enough talents just like what Denver did with him.

I remember benji's post about NBA being a superstar's league and that superstars can do a lot for their team. Melo right now I think is that kind of a superstar. By having him, the Nets will probably improve by big margin in a few years if not instantly.

[jonthefon]

I'm not a big fan of ORating, DRating and winshares. They're too dependent on teammates.

Seems like a lot of advanced statistics right now in the NBA are just too limited to present anything other than a bare-bones grasp of a few concepts, namely, efficiency. A lot depends on team-mates There is no real determinant about a player's offensive ability; even in baseball, you can look at a guy's line-drive rate, his isolated power, pitches he swings at out of the zone, you can determine luck with BABIP, etc. But yes, those are different situations.

Anyway, I don't see how the Nets are making anything more than a slightly-upwards lateral move in the immediate term, and for the future, well, they're not in good shape. Have fun spending six years on a mediocre team, Carmelo.

[jonthefon]

Melo right now I think is that kind of a superstar. By having him, the Nets will probably improve by big margin in a few years if not instantly.

Melo is a superstar in name only. He's a very good player who does one thing at an elite level, but it's not like he played with absolute junk in Denver. Okay, Lopez will be great, Murphy's a pretty solid one-way player, but where does everything else come from, especially if you're likely to be a mediocre team possibly just outside the lottery? That's no place for elite draft talent (or at least not guaranteed).

[rise]

Anyway, I don't see how the Nets are making anything more than a slightly-upwards lateral move in the immediate term, and for the future, well, they're not in good shape. Have fun spending six years on a mediocre team, Carmelo.

The Nets really are not all that mediocre anymore. I can't believe I'm saying this about a team who won 12 games and lost 70 last season, but I think they are headed for the playoffs. 7th or 8th seed, but I think they are headed in that direction.

[Oznogrd]

The Nets really are not all that mediocre anymore. I can't believe I'm saying this about a team who won 12 games and lost 70 last season, but I think they are headed for the playoffs. 7th or 8th seed, but I think they are headed in that direction.

Seriously? I mean yeah i know they picked up some better roleplayers and the like in the offseason: but right now i'd still say they miss playoffs...but win..30 games. Sure ill let them over double last years total. I'm that good a guy

[rise]

I think they'll at least triple their wins from last season, maybe come near to quadrupling it if I'm really feeling optimistic.

[Andrew]

thats why i believe that lawson should be traded to charlotte with augustine going to nj

Sure, but if you're Denver, are you giving up Lawson when you don't need to?

[Rip32]

thats why i believe that lawson should be traded to charlotte with augustine going to nj

Sure, but if you're Denver, are you giving up Lawson when you don't need to?

Exactly, that's subtraction by, well, subtraction.

Plus, does everyone remember what happened last time Charlotte had a chance to acquire a super-star PG from North Carolina (Ray Felton)? They drafted his replacement 3 years later and now he's in NY.

My question in regards to this whole Melo debacle is who the hell is going to play PG in NJ?

[Axel The Great]

Jordan Farmar.

[Andrew]

Right now, I'd say Jordan Farmar.

[puttincomputers]

it would be interesting if ai turned up on the bobcats or nets this season if this trade would go through. what a disaster that would be.

[Andrew]

That's a point, desperation might give AI the opportunity that he and his agent are bewildered he hasn't been offered as yet.

[jonthefon]

And even if the Nets sneak into a lower playoff spot, where the fuck do they go to improve up to at least Chicago level?

[Lamrock]

Jae, That's fair. I am going a bit overboard with the Win Shares and Offensive Ratings. Kobe's obviously better than Nazr (even though those stats were from one of Kobe's worst seasons, and Nazr's fluke best). I just hate when people call a guy like Melo a superstar even though he's merely an above average high-volume scorer with major flaws and isn't even close to the level of a Wade or Durant.

Kirilenko may have trouble getting his in Denver. Its not like they have a future hall-of-fame point guard or anything.

[J@3]

I agree with you, Melo's 2nd tier to me. Behind guys like LeBron/Wade but ahead of the Joe Johnson's of the World.

[NovU]

Melo right now I think is that kind of a superstar. By having him, the Nets will probably improve by big margin in a few years if not instantly.

Melo is a superstar in name only. He's a very good player who does one thing at an elite level, but it's not like he played with absolute junk in Denver. Okay, Lopez will be great, Murphy's a pretty solid one-way player, but where does everything else come from, especially if you're likely to be a mediocre team possibly just outside the lottery? That's no place for elite draft talent (or at least not guaranteed).

I agree with you that he played with good teammates and that he's not a definite high quality Superstar like Bron or Kobe. In that regards, Denver still was able to do pretty good with him as the centerpiece. NJN is a much less of a team as of now than the Nuggets for sure, but I was just implying that things cam turn quickly with addition of a superstar. Denver was an awful team also, but look what they have achieved with Melo. As he's in prime, it's only normal for the NJN to be wanting him at all cost while the Nuggets tried hard not to lose him. How many chances should the less attractive market teams like Denver or NJN pass on and stick to the lucks in draft, and hope for them to stay when they become good.

As for the NJN being a medioocre team even with addition of Melo, it's still a step forward just like what Denver did with him in the first place. It'll be more about adjusting to become better rather than needing for a major shake up to become good. I see the significant difference there.