2014 Playoffs: (1) San Antonio vs. (2) Oklahoma City

[YaoKnowWhat_I_Ming]

Whether the Thunder can turn this series around or not, I am deeply disappointed with Durant. I thought this was the season where he took that leap and overtake LBJ's place as a league's best player. But his diminishing performance in playoffs carried over to this season and his performance took a huge dip once again. LBJ consistently had great games/series even though there were times he struggled badly in the playoffs. But Durant in his career, always has underperformed in the playoffs.

I can't remember the time where you can say KD entirely won the game/series for you. Even Chris Paul(though eliminated) had at least couple games like that this post season. You see, KD's PER during regular season was 30, but is 23 in the playoffs. Compare that to LBJ's 29 to 30. One's keeping it up while the other one's falling short on expectations.

If averaging 29.6 points, 8.7 boards, 4.1 assists on is sub-par, that's pretty high expectations you have my friend. Just for comparison, Lebron averages 27.3 points, 7 boards, 4.9 assists this playoffs against a watered down East (Safe to say Grizzlies>Pacers?). Only noticeable change is Durant's points and shooting, but given that Durant mainly scores from the perimeter, he'll suffer some rough shooting nights, but I don't think he had a bad series except for the 2013 Grizzlies series where they essentially quadruple-teamed Durant. Still got 28.8 points/game that series. Playoffs in general he averaged 28.9 points/game. Versus the Clippers this year: 33.2 points, 9.3 boards, 5.1 assists.

[NovU]

23 PER is superb. 30pts 8.7boards 4.1asts are all great numbers. But he's set the bar pretty high for himself. You don't want your season MVP to have 23 PER. Those are Wade and Harden's numbers. We don't even need to compare KD to LBJ but there have been plenty of superstars that sustained level of performance in the playoffs.

This just means KD's teammates need to pick up the slacks and do more/shoot more eifficienty, otherwise it becomes much harder to win.

Only noticeable change is Durant's points and shooting,

And his all around numbers took a dip such as AST% while his usage rate maintained at a similar level. More importantly, people tend to undervalue efficiency.



Back to the point, it's factual KD never has maintained level of performance in the playoffs. Not just this season but in all of his seasons. It's norm fans wanting more out of him.

[Andrew]

His efficiency has dropped, but his production has still been fine on the whole and he's had some big games. Also, not to take anything away from LeBron's abilities on the court, but I imagine it's a little easier to maintain efficiency with the teammates he has, as the Heat have a superior roster to the Thunder.

Compare LeBron's earlier years in Cleveland, where his PER yo-yoed from season to season; Durant finds himself on a far better team than that, but still one that forces him to take shots that lower his percentages somewhat and place him in a situation where his efficiency will suffer.

[NovU]

PER yo-yo-ing happens with everyone though, even with MJ, Kobe, Karl Malone, Dirk, and ofc LBJ. But what they share in common is that they all had better high point(s) than KD. Right now, KD is closer to David Robinson than Hakeem Olajuwon.

but I imagine it's a little easier to maintain efficiency with the teammates he has, as the Heat have a superior roster to the Thunder.

I am going to disagree to this. You can still provide like LBJ did against the Pistons and Celtics where he took over the series single handedly. Then there was Orlando Magic series where LBJ came out a legendary loser. You probably won't find a player that played better and still lost the series. May not be fair, but surpassing LBJ this season, you kinda wanna see KD to have his moment sooner than later.


How KD's been playing put pressures on his teammates. Because efficiency is important and you're the MVP. Shooting 10/21 and 14/21 can entirely change outcome of the game. You still don't want your best player's performance to take a drastic hit in the playoffs as it did with Durant this post season.

[Andrew]

You don't think that having better teammates to share the load, and thus not having to take as many shots - particularly as many tough shots - has any impact on efficiency at all? It's easier to shoot 14/21 when you've got other offensive threats on the floor to either draw the defense, or pass to so that you don't have to take the tough shot in the first place. Of course, LeBron does make his fair share of tough shots when it comes to that.

Honestly, I don't think that a postseason for the ages would have proved that Durant has surpassed LeBron...at this point, at any rate. Durant had a great regular season and was a worthy MVP, but that doesn't mean that he was necessarily the best player in the league, nor that he had surpassed LeBron (or was close to it). He's at a point where you have to mention him when you're talking about the cream of the crop, but LeBron's still the top dog, and was going to be regardless of what Durant did this year.

[benji]

PER yo-yos so much from playoff to playoff because of the sample size. If you take any four, seven, ten, fifteen, etc. game chunks from any season of any player it's going to do the same thing.

Hakeem in 1988 and Bonzi Wells in 2006, being two of the best examples of a guy playing absurdly higher than normal for four and six games.

The rule of thumb for the playoffs and PER is that most players lose about 10% of their production, while the "great playoff performers" lose less to none. Jordan, LeBron, Horry, Fisher, etc. all played the same in the playoffs, while everyone else was dropping 10% which enlarged their status relatively. Almost no player maintains a higher playoff production than regular season over the long term.

Durant's not as far off in a stat that matters a lot more in the playoffs:

Code: Select all

Win Shares
1.   LeBron James-MIA   3.2
2.   Paul George-IND   2.6
3.   Kevin Durant-OKC   2.5
4.   Russell Westbrook-OKC   2.4
5.   Tim Duncan-SAS   2.3
6.   Tiago Splitter-SAS   2.1
7.   Chris Paul-LAC   1.9
8.   Kawhi Leonard-SAS   1.9
9.   Trevor Ariza-WAS   1.7
10.   George Hill-IND   1.6

[benji]

PER*WS*WS/48:

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LeBron James      PF      29      MIA      27.62
Russell Westbrook      PG      25      OKC      10.04
Tim Duncan      C      37      SAS      9.94
Tiago Splitter      C      29      SAS      9.49
Kevin Durant      SF      25      OKC      8.95
Paul George      SF      23      IND      8.93
Chris Paul      PG      28      LAC      8.87
Manu Ginobili      SG      36      SAS      6.44
Trevor Ariza      SF      28      WAS      6.08
Kawhi Leonard      SF      22      SAS      5.82

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Chris Andersen      C      35      MIA      4.70
Joe Johnson      SG      32      BRK      4.68
Dwight Howard      C      28      HOU      4.57
Blake Griffin      PF      24      LAC      4.31
Taj Gibson      PF      28      CHI      4.10
Danny Green      SG      26      SAS      4.00
Dwyane Wade      SG      32      MIA      3.95
Boris Diaw      PF      31      SAS      3.88
Serge Ibaka      PF      24      OKC      3.84
Bradley Beal      SG      20      WAS      3.61

Last Year:

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LeBron James          PF          28          MIA          37.99
Chris Andersen          C          34          MIA          14.62
Kevin Durant          SF          24          OKC          11.47
Kawhi Leonard          SF          21          SAS          11.37
Roy Hibbert          C          26          IND          10.70
Chris Paul          PG          27          LAC          9.36
Tim Duncan          C          36          SAS          8.57
Tony Parker          PG          30          SAS          7.84
Marc Gasol          C          28          MEM          6.84
DeJuan Blair          PF          23          SAS          6.51

Code: Select all

Stephen Curry          PG          24          GSW          5.61
Chris Bosh          C          28          MIA          5.17
Danny Green          SG          25          SAS          4.92
Brook Lopez          C          24          BRK          4.76
Paul George          SF          22          IND          3.72
Dwyane Wade          SG          31          MIA          3.64
Mike Conley          PG          25          MEM          3.58
Deron Williams          PG          28          BRK          3.48
Tony Allen          SG          31          MEM          3.41
George Hill          PG          26          IND          3.29

[NovU]

Durant's not as far off in a stat that matters a lot more in the playoffs:

Why do you use accumulative WS as a measurement? Shouldn't we strictly go by WS/48?

Last two seasons, Kevin Durant nicely was looking to join MJ and LBJ's exclusive club as the best wingmen in league history. But WS/48 suggests he produced wins at much less rate in the playoffs:
.291 to .210 (differential: -.81)
.295 to .165 (differential: -.130)
This is a huge drop, ala choker's number.

Perhaps, I put Kevin Durant too quickly in elite players list when he only just started to have LBJ kinda numbers (just for 2 seasons so far). But there's no doubt we'll have to include KD in the statistical discussion of LBJ & MJ, that is if KD keeps up putting those monstrous regular season numbers for a good stretch. Apparently, his greatest seasons so far have been tainted by poor playoffs stats.

[YaoKnowWhat_I_Ming]

I wouldn't label him as a choker...but he is transparent at times, which almost cost his team a first round exit. Which should reminds us that they're playing some tough opponents. While Lebron isn't exactly padding his stats, his opponents prior to Indy sure made him look good. Just taking a quick look into last year, Durant's WS/48 was at .210 was placed him for 4th among players in the playoffs, but still downgraded comparing his 2013 season to 2013 playoffs from .291 to .210. That year, Lebron also took a hit as well, from .322 to .260. Of course, the two players were at 2 very different situations. In the 2012 playoffs, both players basically remained the same. Durant from .230 to .231, Lebron from .298 to .284.

[Andrew]

Additionally, when we're talking about elite players, LeBron qualifies on two counts: current, and one of the best of all-time. Durant is definitely one of the best players in the league right now, but he's not in the same discussion when it comes to all-time greats and rankings.

[YaoKnowWhat_I_Ming]

Additionally, when we're talking about elite players, LeBron qualifies on two counts: current, and one of the best of all-time. Durant is definitely one of the best players in the league right now, but he's not in the same discussion when it comes to all-time greats and rankings.

Agreed. Durant may have, and deserved the MVP, but Lebron is still the best player in on Earth.

[NovU]

LeBron started peaking at age of 24. Durant as well. Durant's no joke and should join LBJ's club if he keeps up what he's been doing for last 2 seasons. I just wanted to note that he needs to step up a bit in the playoffs as well because he's been the choker in last 2 seasons. Let's put that into a perspective.


Difference in PER 7 is huge. 15 is league average, and at 15 you have these players.
Marco Belinelli, Trevor Booker, Brandon Bass

At 22, you have these players.
Dwyane Wade, Al Horford, Lamarcus Aldridge

So Durant has gone from Dwyane Wade to Belinelli. Al Horford to Booker. Lamarcus to Bass. Difference in WS/48 is self explanatory.

Hypothetically, you can't replace Aldridge with Booker or Bass and expect the Blazers to be the same team. That is unless... the other players can step up big in his place on collective effort. Same logic. Durant's sudden struggle with efficiency is other players' burden. Ibaka now needs to shoot 7/10 when 4/10 would have been sufficient during regular season.

[Mandich]

I was really hoping for Durant to close the gap between him and Lebron and maybe make it 1a and 1b. With the great season he's had it was likely he'd do it this year. In my opinion the gap is now as wide as it has ever been(since they've started talking about Durant challenging LB)

Btw, Go Spurs.

[YaoKnowWhat_I_Ming]

Boo mandich, Go Thunder.

NovU, it's hard to say Durant choked in the last years playoffs, when he actually did okay. 28ish PER in regular season to 26.0 PER.
Saying Durant going from Wade to Marco is a bit unfair, it shows the difference of 7 PER points. If you ignore the Memphis series, I'm sure his PER will be higher, because the Grindfather is just about Durant's worst enemy.

Also, Lebron had that series versus the Mavs when he was 25-26. So even when James peaked at 24, he would still struggle later on.

[benji]

Why do you use accumulative WS as a measurement? Shouldn't we strictly go by WS/48?

There's a finite number of wins in the playoffs for all teams. And only one team is allowed the maximum number. Which will be achieved.

[shadowgrin]

I lol'd.

Ok maybe more like a chuckle.

[NovU]

There's a finite number of wins in the playoffs for all teams. And only one team is allowed the maximum number. Which will be achieved.

Wtf are you talking about.

[benji]

It's guaranteed that one team will win 16 games, one team will win 12-15 games, two teams will win no more than 11 games, etc.

This is not so for the regular season.

[YaoKnowWhat_I_Ming]

As much as you guys love talking about advanced metrics, today is simple. Either Durant has a eff you game, or this "Karl Malone syndrome" is about to get real.

[shadowgrin]

Pop trolling OKC by resting Tim Duncan for long stretches.

Kawhi Leonard beasting.

Nice of Manu Ginobili to make Derek Fisher pay for flopping.

Durant OKChoke.

[Alpha_]

No goaltending?

[YaoKnowWhat_I_Ming]

Wow. OT.

[Alpha_]

Durant choking hard in OT.

And we're seeing a vintage Tim Duncan once again.

[shadowgrin]

Reggie Miller making a good point about the MVP, he's nowhere to be seen this OT.

Kawhi beasting D on Durant and that Westbrook fastbreak layup.

[Alpha_]