by benji on Sun Aug 05, 2007 1:07 pm
In the simplest sense: Having a better team than the four teams you face in the playoffs.
An ideal five-man lineup consists of two high usage players at least of average efficiency, two high efficiency players on both ends, and a top notch defender/rebounder. Good example: Bulls, Chicago. 1996.
EDIT: To delve into this a bit more...one thing that also is important is a good bench. That might be most important of all.
1996 Bulls (usage rate ("possessions per 40"), ORtg ("points per 100 possessions")
Longley (17.2, 103) - Rodman (10.4, 109) - Pippen (24.4, 116) - Jordan (31.9, 124) - Harper (15.0, 117)
League average was 108 for ORtg. Pippen and Jordan are high usage and as an added bonus are super-efficient, Harper is efficient on both ends, Rodman is killer on defense and the boards. Jordan and Pippen (who is also a killer defender) allow them to get away with playing Longley for his size. Rounding out the first nine guys are:
Kukoc (21.3, 125) - Kerr (13.1, 141) - Wennington (15.6, 111), Buechler (16.8, 113)
2007 Spurs do things a bit differently...but the concepts are there:
Oberto (11.9, 112) - Duncan (25.5, 111) - Bowen (10.0, 101) - Ginobili (25.1, 117) - Parker (26.0, 112)
League average is 106. Duncan, Parker and Manu use high possessions, but are all supper efficient. Duncan is the best defensive player since Bill Russell. Him and Oberto rebound. Bowen is a good defender as well. Oberto helps by also being efficient offensively.
Finley (17.7, 108) - Barry (14.7, 126) - Elson (13.0, 100) - Horry (12.7, 104) - Bonner (18.0, 111) - Vaughn (15.1, 105)
Elson and Horry are defensive powerhouses off the bench.
2006 Heat don't look like they were packing efficient players at first glance:
O'Neal (26.6, 108) - Haslem (12.6, 116) - Posey (10.6, 112) - Wade (30.2, 115) - Williams (17.9, 113)
Entire starting lineup is above the 106 league average. Two high usage, four high efficiency guys, Haslem and Shaq hit the boards. Posey and Wade dominant defensive players.
Walker (20.9, 101) - Payton (13.6. 107) - Mourning (15.1, 113)
Mourning was a defensive beast and offensively efficient. Walker hurts you, but they got over it.
2004 Pistons show off how depth in numbers can overpower top-heavy teams (they went through three for the title):
Wallace (14.0, 98) - Wallace (21.5, 104) - Prince (14.7, 106) - Hamilton (24.1, 103) - Billups (22.8, 112)
League average was 103 that year. First three power the stifling defense. Billups is super-efficient (he would be better in later years of course) and Hamilton meets average efficiency.
Williamson (21.4, 102) - Okur (19.6, 107) - Campbell (20.5, 96) - James (17.0, 107) - Hunter (12.9, 88) - Ham (10.7, 97)
Some of the Pistons reserves used defense to make up for their offense. Hunter was on fire after returning and combined with James to bring backcourts to their knees. Ham (although he should've never been on the court as much as he was) is also a defensive beast. Campbell was invaluable against Shaq in the Finals by not allowing him position closer.
The reason I like the above denoted lineup is because it covers the four factors. Offensive boards are hit by the rebounder, you have at least two guys who can take shots, and at least two guys who can make shots. (If those guys who can take shots can also make them, you become a truly dominant team like the Bulls.) So, you likely have a good shooting percentage, low turnovers and control the offensive glass.
The reason this unit becomes ideal is due to the fact there is a limited number of possessions. If you have four high usage guys that reduces the number of possesions for the most efficient of those guys. By having the few-possession rebounder/defender, those possessions can be allocated to the superior players. Yes, the 4-on-5 concern is there, but if you have a Longley and not a Ben Wallace, that guy will be able to force defenses to at least pay him some mind.
Yes, having a lineup with "three stars" and stuff like that is great. But if I was building a team from scratch it's much easier to get the players who can do the things/roles noted well. Then when you do get a third star you can become extra good really fast. Like the Pistons did in 2004. But I'm probably babbling and making little sense now!