FiveThirtyEight 2015-16 NBA Previews

[benji]

FiveThirtyEight, perhaps best known for Nate Silver's political projections, has started posting their projections (including Neil Paine of B-R fame) for this season:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/2015-16-nba-previews/

So far:

Cavaliers: 59-23
Celtics: 48-34
Bulls: 47-35
Hawks: 45-37
Raptors: 44-38
Wizards: 41-41
Hornets: 40-42
Pacers: 39-43
Heat: 38-44
Pistons: 38-44
Magic: 37-45
Bucks: 36-46
Knicks: 27-55
Nets: 25-57
76ers: 25-57

Warriors: 60-22
Thunder: 56-26
Spurs: 56-26
Clippers: 55-27
Rockets: 52-30
Grizzlies: 51-31
Pelicans: 46-36
Jazz: 45-37
Mavericks: 41-41
Suns: 40-42
Kings: 40-42
Blazers: 39-43
Nuggets: 30-52
Timberwolves: 29-53
Lakers: 27-55

[Nick]

A lot has to go right for the Mavericks to get 41 wins. But i'm definitely on board the Celtics. I can see them getting top 4 seed in the West and Brad Stevens winning coach of the year

[air gordon]

The east?
Surprised Carmelo doesn't like the Heat. Maybe Wade slips some but Bosh is back and Goran is around. I hope Whiteside doesn't end up a punk. Goons like Zaza P are just waiting to get under his skin. Be nice to see him put together a full season

[Lamrock]

39-43 for the Blazers?! I don't need this. 55 losses or bust.

[benji]

Updated the OP with all the teams and links to each preview.

dat Celtics projection

[NovU]

Heat at 38 win mark? You know what I am going to say about that. It's total BS. Addition of Hassan Whiteside, Dragic, and healthy Bosh alone equate to better season from last year.

[benji]

Has Dragic and Deng playing 55% of minutes, Wade and Bosh 50%, Whiteside 45%.

This is 26.6, 24.2 and 21.8 minutes per game over 82 games respectively.

Deng played 61% of minutes last year, Wade 50%, Bosh 39%, Whiteside 29%. Dragic played 67% of minutes across both teams.

In 2013-14, Bosh played 64% of minutes and Wade played 45%.
In 2012-13, Bosh played 62% and Wade played 60%.

So it's not an unreasonable minutes projection really for those two. I'd probably bump Bosh up to 55% and Whiteside to 50%.

I'll see if I can get enough 2014-15 data in place to do some projections during this first week of the season or so. I've got about a third of the teams already in. And can do three year based ones (really four years, because I have back to 2011-12).

For what it's worth last year* I got a huge range for the Heat:

Projection: 37-45 - PPG: 97.5 - OPPG: 99.9 - Win Range: 34-47 - STDEV: 1.62/2.13

Which I would expect again to be honest.

*I didn't finish so I couldn't rescale the records, nor adjust for Paul George, but basically lop three wins off every East teams record over 38 wins and lop 2 off every team under. To adjust for George, it'd probably be something like taking 18 wins off the Pacers (15-16 for George, two for team effect) and redistributing one to the other 14 teams and then two more to the Cavaliers and Bulls.....which would actually require you to redistribute again across the board...this is why I should have finished.

Also the wins distribution on the teams is messed up because of a typo I made, which is why they're all allocated to guards.

[NovU]

The thing about the last year's Heat is that they added new faces in the middle of the season and they didn't have time to mesh, and each player was dealing with their own injury issues throughout the season.

http://www.82games.com/1415/1415MIA2.HTM

What you notice from last year's most used line up by Spo is that:
1) Hassan & Bosh did not play together for a single minute.
2) Neither Dragic had any minutes on the floor with Bosh.
3) Cole, Haslem, Andersen, Napier are low end players and they occupy most used line ups.
4) Williams, Walker, Ennis also were given ample amount opportunities be rotational players. In this world, this should be considered a suicidal tanking.

So the very difference from last year will be that Heat don't need to experiment with d-league level talent no more but instead just play Gerald Green when Wade is out. Also Haslem who is 6 years removed from being a solid player doesn't need to play the major role as a starter anymore. Heck, Haslem actually doesn't even need to play at all now that McRoberts will be back.

Sans Chinese league talents, you add NBA level talents, the Heat are obviously better off this year. Just try 8-9 man rotation with actual Heat's current best players. What you get is much nicer.

Whiteside
Bosh
Deng
Wade
Dragic
Backed by: Chalmers, Tyler Johnson, McBob, Green

[benji]

It's not just Hassan and Bosh. Or Dragic and Bosh. Dragic-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside didn't play a single minute together and that's their expected starting lineup.