Potential

[Nel]

I just want to ask you guys how can you say a player has potential to become great? I'm sick of GMs drafting H.S. players coz they have potential. I just want to know where do they base the potential of a player..

[EGarrett]

Mainly on height and athleticism.

There's also the players intelligence and work ethic to consider.

Athleticism consists of strength, speed and leaping ability. Height allows players to shoot over defenders, avoid being shot over when they are defending and to get to rebounds. Leaping ability and long arms allow players to pretty much do the same things. Strength is good for fighting for position when rebounding as well as driving to the hoop without being pushed off course by other defenders. It also helps you back down defenders in the post and avoid being backed down. Speed lets you run past other defenders on your way to the hoop or avoid having the man your guarding run past you. Work ethic determines how players will develop their skills.

Players who are tall, lanky, fast and can leap will have the most natural advantage over their defenders and be able to score the most easily. That's why Kevin Garnett was drafted...he was 6'11" with long arms and great speed and leaping ability. Now he dominates because he can drive past slower defenders...shoot over short defenders and get rebounds and block shots with his leaping and height. That's why it's almost impossible for teams to guard him. There's basically no one who can stay with his quickness AND match his size.

There is of course also the matter of skills already demonstrated, which factor in also. Darius Miles was drafted third overall because of his height (6'9"), speed, lanky arms and leaping ability. He also had ball-handling skills and was able to drive by defenders even in high school. GMs were betting that he'd be willing to work to get better and would be able to add strength to his thin frame. Unfortunately he hasn't done much of either but he's still able to contribute with his natural skills.

In the draft now are guys like Dwight Howard and Josh Smith. Howard is big, strong and can jump with some basic skills already demonstrated...and Smith is mostly a freakish athlete. They both have the potential to be dominant in the league which is why they will be drafted high.

[GloveGuy]

For Europeans, I think it's mostly what EGarret said, but instead of athleticism, it's versatility. Many of the hot prospects from overseas are expected to be 6'11 with the skills of a shooting guard. Scouts are looking for the next Dirk or Peja, expecting to only find it in Europe.

[Andrew]

Obviously, when a team drafts a player they are hoping that he will improve over time, working on his weaknesses and expanding his repertoire. As EG already said, players with great potential are usually great athletes with physical attributes that give them a natural advantage in the game of basketball. They also have a few skills that they should be able to hone with the right training and dedication. The theory is that they have the attributes that cannot be taught - athleticism, long arms, height, etc - so with the right training, they will be outstanding basketball players.

But potential is not always positive. Players who are potentially great also have the potential to be busts. It just depends which scenario or "What If?" situation is played out. It might not be wise to draft a player who probably will be great but on the other hand may not be, over a player who probably won't reach the same level but is already a very good player.

In a way I agree with biJin. GMs are a little too infatuated with potential, and some of the selections in recent years might prove to have been foolish or short sighted in a few year's time, and we'll lament about the "What If?" situations that could have been. But as EG pointed out, you certainly have to look at a player's potential when drafting him, as some of those players will reach their potential. It's simply a matter of scouting each player and being aware of what he can already do and how good he will be upon entering the league.

[Nel]

Now i know. So its all about athleticism. I wonder why players that have potential turn out to be a bust even if they have the tools to be a good player? Is work ethic part of potential??

[Andrew]

It's not always about athleticism, but players who are great athletes are considered to have great potential because they possess qualities that cannot be taught - physical attributes that are natural advantages.

I wonder why players that have potential turn out to be a bust even if they have the tools to be a good player? Is work ethic part of potential??

Potential doesn't mean all that much until it's fulfilled. Work ethic is certainly a factor. A player with great potential who has little or no interest in making an effort to improve his game will not fulfil his potential. When Derrick Coleman came into the league, he was potentially one of the best all-around players in the game. However, he did not put in a lot of effort night in and night out, and as a result made the All-Star team only once (1994) and has been a role player since leaving the Nets in 1995.