(2) Mavericks Vs. (7) Spurs

[Lamrock]

The Spurs are a little better than the Mavs, but I thought home court advantage and the Mavs winning the last 7/9 (counting last year's playoffs) against San Antonio would yield a Dallas In 7 result.

The more possessions Harris uses, the less Barea and Butler use. Unlike the rest of Dirk's supporting cast, Harris isn't a washed-up former all-star. Kinda useful to have when Dirk isn't going 12-14.

[jonthefon]

And that also means Dirk would be using less possessions. That's the last thing the Mavs need, and it's not like he would entirely replace Butler and Barea's usage.

[benji]

Dirk using less possessions isn't a problem if good players are using them, the problem is Butler and Marion are using them. Why Beaubois has played only five minutes I cannot understand.

But Rick Carlisle was fired by the Pistons for a reason.

The Mavericks lost to the Spurs in 2003 because of Dirk's injury, they were better otherwise, they would've outlasted the Spurs in seven due to their amazing offense despite the defense. (The Spurs simply weren't that good if Duncan had an off game, look at every single series, they dropped two games because nobody was there to back up Duncan and Robinson. They won because in the other four games someone was always there to put up 15-20 or bomb in threes. Be it Parker, or Manu, or Malik Rose, or Stephen Jackson or Steve Kerr.)

They lost in 2006 for reasons we all know, and they had already beaten the best team in the league back in the second round.

In 2007 they stupidly thought they had to suddenly adjust and play the Warriors' style instead of controlling the game as they had all season.

Other than that I never considered them a team to win it all. 2005 is weird since they changed coaches with 18 games to go, Dirk wasn't as good as normal and Stackhouse played a ton of playoff minutes. And the Spurs were so much better than anyone anyway. They lost to the only non-Spurs team better as well, the Suns. Mavericks had it rough that year had to face the 5th best team, then the 2nd, just for the opportunity to get crushed by the Spurs.

[jonthefon]

But is Harris more efficient a user than Dirk? I guess he is over Butler and Marion and JJ, but...

Carlisle is really strange to me. Sometimes he's extremely smart with his adjustments and his play-calling, but he seems to be like tons of other coaches: stubborn as hell with his rotations. Not playing Roddy here is unforgivable.

I'm really not sure the Mavs would've beaten the Spurs in 2003 even with Dirk. I still have nightmares about Duncan destroying Raef LaFrentz and Shawn Bradley.

And I think it's agreeable that outside of 03, 06 and 07, the Mavs never really were top-gun championship contenders come playoff time. It would've been fun to see that 2005 WCF though (well, it's always fun when it comes to Spurs-Mavs).

[benji]

It's not that Harris has to be more efficient than Dirk, he just needs to be more efficient than Butler and Kidd and Barea. I wasn't really arguing in favor of Harris more than I was that taking possessions from Dirk isn't a death sentence if it's spreading out the offense in a manner that improves it, which is how the Mavericks IMPROVED despite losing Jamison, Walker and Nash in 2005.

Right, Carlisle is one of those "play my guys" types. It's why Michael Curry, despite being useless, spent so many minutes on the court for the Pistons and Raptors over the three years he had Carlisle and O'Neill as his coach.

I think they would've beat the Spurs in 2003, their defense had fallen apart, but the Spurs were so hit and miss, that a consistent offense (which was one of the best ever) would have been enough.

I do think it is silly though that the Mavericks get so much attention for not winning a title when they aren't really that much of an outlier, lots of teams built towards and never won a title, the Mavs got to the FInals at least. I don't hear a lot of 1989-1992 Blazer bashing.

[hova-]

I do think it is silly though that the Mavericks get so much attention for not winning a title when they aren't really that much of an outlier, lots of teams built towards and never won a title, the Mavs got to the FInals at least. I don't hear a lot of 1989-1992 Blazer bashing.

But you hear a lot of Jazz and Kings bashing (at least like Malone one of the best player never getting a ring or the Kings being one of the best teams never winning a championship). I think it is just because the Mavs had this one season where Dirk got the MVP after they managed this 67 win season. This has gotten them so much attention as they were seen as the best team in this season.

Talking about all that past stuff I once again looked up the 06 finals boxscore. It makes a Mavs fan gonna cry. Not only that the Mavs were too dumb to close out the series. 46 Fts in two games for Mr. Wade just make me feel pissed.

[jonthefon]

I don't know if stats back it up, but does Harris really do the stuff Kidd can do in terms of getting other players the ball in spots? Is Harris's improvement over Butler and Barea better than what they could lose with Kidd.

It seems inexplicable that the Mavs would give up a 23-0 run in Game 6, at home. Even without Dirk, they should've been able to score something, but...

Outside of Wade, the 06 Finals was a giant fucking tragedy in general. The Mavs should've closed out Game 3. They probably should've closed out Game 5. And then they took a giant dump in Game 6, when it should've been the biggest sporting event to be hosted in Dallas (since the Rangers have won a single game in the playoffs ever, the Cowboys never won a Super Bowl at Texas Stadium and Brett Hull scored in Buffalo). Maybe that could be attributed to the demoralization of the games in Miami (I remember that EVERYONE in Dallas thought the Mavs would lose because the refs were just going to blow the whistle for Dwyade). But that's not really an excuse: maybe 50% of the blame is on the Mavs, and 50% on everything else.

[benji]

That's a question of having a non-scorer who creates vs. someone the defense has to watch.

It's not really a settled debate, and the data is not really there to decide it yet.

I do agree to the extent that if I want to create on a single possession, I probably want Kidd because of what he can do. But if I want to think about a game in total, I may lean Harris if the team has the ball movement to create shots for each other.

It's why Bibby could go from like 8 apg with the Grizzlies to like 5 with the Kings (and Hawks!) and be "more effective." Divac, Webber, Christie, etc. could all move the ball, you didn't need Bibby to set people up.

And to be fair, if the Mavericks don't have Terry on the court in a key situation or down the stretch, Kidd or Harris isn't going to matter. (Although I do like Kidd's ability to guard two-guards even though the Mavs are getting the downside of that curve.)

But we have to remember the team already has Dampier or Haywood out there. And if Butler keeps stinking the court up... Dampier was awesome years back because he didn't use possessions, hit the offensive boards, was off the charts efficient, now they're kind of clogging the court like they did to undermine everything in 2003-04.

[NovU]

Come on, jonthefon. Kidd WAS great, but you can't compare him to the young legs of Harris now. It was a bad trade for the Mavericks, especially seeing how Harris is getting recognized in the league now days.

We'll never know for sure, but I think Harris could have been a better complimentary player for Dirk. Exactly, how many passes from Kidd to Dirk end up being assists? Kidd mostly sets up other players but I don't think Harris will do much worse job on that, probably max APG differential of 2 from Kidd's . On top of that, Barea played some major important minutes in this series because of his penetration skills, but Harris is much better at that. If what Mavericks are lacking right now is a consistent second option, I think Harris could have helped in that spot.

[benji]

Dallas' second option problem is that Butler has imploded (which is normal for the playoffs?!?) this season for some weird reason. And that Marion hasn't been able to fill the gap enough.

Dallas has more than enough pieces, they just haven't figured out how to get them to work out.

The Spurs pretty much always, ALWAYS, figure this crap out.

[Andrew]

The Spurs pretty much always, ALWAYS, figure this crap out.

...which is why I'm regretting my prediction, having fallen into the trap of counting the Spurs out prematurely.

[hova-]

I agree with Benji. You have the parts, but they do not work out as a whole. But it's also because this team has many players who are out of their prime and play different basketball from nowadays. I guess 5 years ago a Kidd-Marion combo would have given the Mavs way more easy buckets. Alley-oops, fastbreak buckets. Now at least Kidd has been able to change his offensive repertoire to at least a bit of a halfcourt game (posting up against smaller guards, hitting the three more consistent). Marion in my opinion has not really the ability to be an offensive threat other than on the break. His superb ugly floater/hook will drop at times but it does not only look like luck - it is most of the time (or just bad defense). He can't hit the three (although he had about one season I remember where he was at least about .30% (?)).

This team has no athleticism and lacks of a second scorer. But when playing good D, which is just a thing of effort, the Mavs can still beat a team like the Spurs.

[jonthefon]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sh1DalWSuAc

I don't think Harris makes some of those simplistic plays that Kidd does. Those two passes to Terry for good looks at three? Maybe I'm underestimating Devin's PG ability (he was really getting there before he got dealt), but he's probably not making those passes.

The thing is that the Mavs aren't a ball-movement team without Kidd. They're full of guys who look to create their own shots - it's not like they have a Brandon Roy there who does both. I always argued that Devin was a better fit in Avery's system than Kidd: because they played a lot of iso and two-man game, and didn't need ball movement all that much. The Avery Mavs got away with a lack of ball movement (from 05-08, I don't think any Mav averaged more than 6 assists a game) by not turning the ball over and playing really solid D - uptempo doesn't let you do that consistently enough.

I think it's the same for Mike Bibby. Look at what happened with him and Jason Williams. I'm guessing the 01 Grizzlies starting lineup included Michael Dickerson, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Othella Harrington and "Big Country" Reeves. I looked on BR and totaled their AST% to about 40. The 02 Kings, who had Divac and Webber, two of the better passing big men to ever play the game? Around 59. That was a team that was much better at spreading the ball around so naturally Bibby's assists went down. Then looking at Williams, who went from a similar roster to Memphis? His AST% shoots up to around 40 playing next to Pau, Battier and Swift.

What I'm trying to say is that the Mavs need Kidd in this situation to do what he does in a system which stresses ball movement. I hated the trade at the time because Harris did exactly what he was supposed to do for Avery and I knew Kidd just couldn't beat anyone to really be an upgrade.

EDIT: Is it just coincidence, or under Avery, the Mavs had been great with pyth. record, and now with Rick, they look really dodgy with it?

[hova-]

Johnson and Harris never came along very well. I guess that was also a factor for the trade. Johnson tends to overcoach, especially when he has an average decision maker like Harris on the court. Kidd was maybe a better fit for Johnson, but for the Mavs? That's still to decide.

[jonthefon]

The only reason they made the trade was because Devin got hurt.

[Lamrock]

I thought it was a panic move after LA got Pau and the Mavs realized they couldn't win a title. They thought adding an aging (veteran!) all-star would put them over the top. (also see: Marion, Shawn; Butler, Caron)

[NovU]

IMO, it always has been about on-going experiments in Dallas on obvious reasons to build around Dirk. The truth was Dirk's skillset is so unusual that there have been no answer at all, in finding the right mix to get the job done in the chase of championship. It's really hard to blame it all on Dirk since he is undeniably one of the top players in the league, who led Dallas to where they have been each year, but at the same time, it's hard to blame it all on the teammates, since playing with Dirk as a focal point, I think can put them out of their comfort zone. In result, I think it just has been and still is damn too tricky for the front office to build a team around Dirk to win it all. Like benji said, they do have enough pieces.

[jonthefon]

Lamrock, you're right. After Harris got hurt, the Mavs went into a giant offensive torpor without his ability to penetrate. Then the Lakers picked up Pau and the front office freaked out. It was so obvious they should've waited out for Devin to come back though.

Dirk has never had a true slash-and-kick guy since he became the man. Look at what he's received: Jerry Stackhouse, jump-shooting Mike Finley, Jason Terry, Josh Howard, undeveloped Devin Harris, Caron Butler. Butler was supposed to have been the guy, but he's an upgraded version of Josh Howard. The one season everything came together for Josh, the Mavs shit the bed. They need either that or a guy who can create his own shot off the dribble legitimately enough to be a serious threat to score 20 a night i.e. Joe Johnson.

[NovU]

Look how supporting casts are stepping up for the Mavericks. Great game once again. This one I think will be relatively an easy one for Dallas, seeing how lessors are stepping up huge.

[Andrew]

Spurs closed the gap but the Mavericks are starting to run away with it again. Looks like it's at least going to six.

[jonthefon]

HEY CARON BUTLER YOU TWAT. WHY COULDN'T YOU DO THAT WHEN THE MAVS ACTUALLY NEEDED A WIN, ON THE ROAD, INSTEAD OF BRICKING JUMPERS?

Seems like the Spurs are clearly playing very vanilla, in the "get this done with at home" mood. Manu played 18, Duncan 24. I'm still not very encouraged.

[NovU]

Hahaha, jonthefon. Yeah, this game was huge for the Mavericks. They did what they needed to do, huge confidence boost: not a narrow win, somebody other than Dirk stepping up, no Dempier experiment paying off, etc.

The Spurs on the other hand, were awful, 18 turnovers, crap defense(was surprised to see Mavericks actually dominating the inside game), etc.

[hova-]

The Mavs can win @San Antonio. I hope this series goes back for a 7th game in Dallas. Finally Butler stepped up his game, Nowitzki only had 14 shots and it seems like he did not play too well. As long as they find a guy who can fill in or add to Dirks touch, the Mavs can keep up with this Spurs squad.

[NovU]

Dirk didn't play bad at all. It was just that it was more of team night. The ball movement was great and the defense was also great. Dirk was just part of it. In last 3 losses, the offense only ran through Dirk, but tonight, he didn't have to do it all alone and he actually played D too.

[Cleveland wins]

I think the mavericks will take it to a 7 game series, i'm not a fan of the spurs but i've been hoping that the spurs win and make it to the next round.