ratings again (marion, west)

[lurgee]

two short innocent questions: (i could not find an answer so far on this board)
why did shawn marion drop three points to an overall rating of 89 in his best season of his career?
and why ist "do-it-all" delonte west still stuck at a strenght of 65?
his block rating (25 which is good for a pg) is lower than the rating of arenas (34? while managing not even half as many blocked shots than west)
his steal rating is 70 (on 1,2 steals in 34 minutes) while billups steal-rating is 82 (while averaging 0,9 steals/game)
his rebound rating of 35 (4 reb. a game) is also down in comparison to the likes of billups and cassell (rating 40) (could be because of wests teammates)
all while shooting 48,7% which is pretty good for a pg; Free throw 85,2%
and i´m not even a boston fan!


and maybe gerald wallace defense skills (def aware: currently 70) should still raise since he is mentioned in the defensive player of the year list and for his often mentioned steal and block ability. (you know the stats)

only to verfy i´m using the newest roster update (gerald wallace defensive awareness 70; block 80; steals 81)

turned out to be more than two short innocent questions. hope i´m not stealing anyones time
thanks.

[Andrew]

The overall rating isn't as important in determining exactly what a player averages and how well he performs as the individual ratings. If there are any specific changes by all means suggest them. I don't like to change the overall just for the sake of it.

Thank you for the feedback on Delonte West, I've made a note of it.

[Chronz]

Gerald Wallaces ratings are more than fair, Marion is overated all of his ratings are bein generous, but your right about Delonte bein a good pg. But to be honest with you I think his ratings are fine they way they are and the reason Billups steal rating is so high is due to EA's faulty Stopper logic.

[Andrew]

Which of Marion's ratings would you personally lower further? I've already brought him down to a more realistic level and can't think of any glaring errors offhand.

[lurgee]

i know you didn´t ask me but i think the number three in nbas efficiency rating should be somewhere near the top ten to five players (to break it down to the overall rating for the last time). he is there because of his versatility. except passing he´s the whole package.
i did my researches:
you dropped marions block rating to 60! (while averaging 1,6 blocks per game). for comparison: garnetts block rating is 80 (while averaging 1,4 block/game). same with dwight howard: rating 80; 1,4 blocks a game. so marions block rating needs to be 80+ (where it was before the change)

marions offensive rebound skill is settled at 60 as well. he ranks at number nine in nbas offensive rebound statistic. two places ahead of elton brand whos off.reb. rating is 80! so, marions off.reb.rating should raise, too.

for some reason you dropped marions def.reb skills to 85, which is still very good. but since he averages more def.reb. than tim duncan (rating 94) and ben wallace (rating 93), even this rating needs to be boosted.

and finally steals:
marion is averaging 2 steals a game. his rating is 80. the same rating ben wallace has. but wallace averages only 1,8 steals. and we´ve got another category that needs to be pushed up.

marions field goal percentage is 52,5% by the way...

and he did all that even last year with amare in the starting five. so there are no excuses because of more playing time and less room to share.

i guess that´s all. i´m pretty sure i´m not able to convince you since you seem to be very confident with the changes you did with marions rating. but at least you have to admit there are reasons why marions rating once was 92...

thanks for your time

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
i made following changes:
block 83 (slightly above garnett and howard for the mentioned reasons)
off reb. 76 (still low cause brands rating of 80 even though he is averaging less off.reb. than marion)
def reb. 93 (to get near duncan and ben wallace; both with less def.reb. than marion)
steals 84 (small increase to determine he steals more often than ben wallace)
overall rating 93. (better than the 92 he had because you pushed his dunk rating). that is where a player like this deserves to be: top 5

[dada]

Not a bad 1st 2 posts. Better than some other guys on this forum. Your argument make some sense.

[Chronz]

You gotta give it up to lurgee he knows his basketball, but there is another thing to consider hes on a horrible rebounding team that avg alot more possessions than most teams. The best measure of how good a year a player had rebounding the ball is to look at his REB rate, which is the % of missed shot that a player rebounds when hes on the floor.

Last year Marion had a reb rate of 15.5 this year with the loss of Amare and KT for much of the year he had a rating of 16.3 very impressive but Tim Duncans Rebrate was considerably higher, last year TD had a rate of 19.4 down to 18.7 this year. So while Marion is a great rebounder his numbers are greatly inflated due to PHX playin style. Its no coincidence his numbers jumped up as soon as DAntoni installed his system. Marions numbers should reflect that hes a better defensive rebounder than Elton but not in Brands league when it comes to OffensiveRebounding. Surprisingly enough Brand isnt even the teams best defensive rebounder, if Kaman got the minutes he could easily avg more rebound than Brand but thats why the clippers are so great that pf/c is one of the best in the league.

So if you want my advise I think 65-70 offensive rebound, 84-88 Defensive rebounding.

I dont have my NBA live disk handy so I cant check to see how you left Marion but Im pretty sure he was accurately rated, Ill leave more input when I get home. But overall I still think Marion is overrated.

[Chronz]

As for Marions blk rating I mentioned earlier how overrated KG shotblocking is but its the only way to give him the inside stopper, I thought outside stopper would be more suited for KG because his stl and blks are spread out evenly like 1.5 and 1.6 I think kinda like Marion. But we came to the conclusion its the only way to give KG his real life swats. So thats why KGs blk rating has to be high and I doubt Marion is an inside stopper so his blk rating is fine.

[Silas]

and if you've watched marion attempt to defend lamar odom in the low post he hasnt done a great job. He's a much better perimeter defender than inside defender.

[Andrew]

i guess that´s all. i´m pretty sure i´m not able to convince you since you seem to be very confident with the changes you did with marions rating. but at least you have to admit there are reasons why marions rating once was 92...

I have to admit, I'm a bit puzzled and slightly offended by that remark. I think I have demonstrated I'm willing to listen to feedback on ratings especially when it's justified and well-researched. When someone posts feedback in the form of "(Player) - (Rating Category) - Up/Down" and nothing else I'm usually not convinced, but it's different if you're pointing out something I may have overlooked.

Also, I never said I wouldn't be making any changes to Marion, I simply asked what further changes could be made, as I couldn't think of any offhand that were off the mark, thus inviting feedback.

What you posted is definitely great feedback, but it's not as black and white as you make it out to be. It's one of the reasons I don't like to rely on a rigid stats-to-ratings formula because some players do deserve slight padding with FSS abilities. Also, stats can be misleading. For example, it was pointed out before the last update that Tony Parker has a high FG% and the suggestion was made his FG rating should come up significantly. However, it's misleading since he gets a lot of points in the paint and isn't a fantastic shooter (by no means a bad one, but not one of the top jumpshooters in the league). Thus, I saw fit to raise his Inside Scoring a bit more rather than his FG rating.

The other problem is the way the ratings work with the sim engine. Athletic swingmen usually average more rebounds and have a slightly higher blocks per game average than they should to begin with, so there's some slight compensation there as well. I know it sounds like an excuse not to make changes but trust me it isn't, I know work can be done with the ratings and I'm happy with the feedback. But I do have to work with what the game gives me as far as the stats/sim engine is concerned. To that end, there's sometimes discrepencies.

Chronz has basically covered some other points, but I do think you both make very good points about Marion, so I will definitely strongly consider making those changes.

[Vanny]

About marion i totally agree !!! He shooting 3 points good in this season .... about 70 rating i think ..... and field goals veeery good , more than 50 % this season ... and his filed goals rating is only 74 and for example lary hugies is 80 but OMG marion is 10 times more scorer than hugies

[lurgee]

i´m really sorry, i didn´t mean to offend you. prior to my last post i just really got the feeling that you would not raise marions ratings especially since you even wanted to lower his rating one post ahead of mine.
i know stats often lie but it´s the only thing i can throw in to fortify my thoughts. by the way i´m really curious where to find stats like the REB rating chronz mentioned. sounds interesting.
and as you said, andrew, that the problem is the way the sim engine works with the ratings i tried something different. maybe it is nonesense but here it is:
i simulated a nba live 06 season with phoenix with your current roster update. (i dropped amare)
the result is:

marions stats
14,2 points; 9,5 reb; 2,5 o.reb.; 7 d.reb. ;steals 1,76; blocks 1,54
compared to his real stats:
21,8 points; 11,8 reb; 3,1 o.reb.; 8,8 def.reb.; steals 2; blocks 1,7
than i tried the changes i mentioned in an earlier post (on the bottom)
result:
15 points; 10,6 reb.; 3,1 o.reb.; 7,5 d.reb.; steals 1,8; blocks 1,74
this one sure is more accurate to marions real stats. especially his block rating and his of.reb. rating. don´t know why his points average is that low.

as i said i don´t know if this has something to say but the suns as a whole are worse than their real life pendant. with amare in the starting line up i got a result of 49:33 on a regular basis (a bit lower than the nba record of 54 wins; without amare). especially boris diaws numbers as a center are much lower than his real ones. so maybe there is something else (or different) not accurate in the suns line-up.
i´m not a suns fan (at the moment i´m crossing fingers for the nets) and this has nothing to do with a phoenix crusade. i just witnessed some inconsistency on my way to underline marions tremendous skills.


(further offends may be caused by the fact that english is not my native language. please be patient with me)
peter

[Christopherson]

you should go to either 82games.com or basketballreference.com they are two of the best sites out there for statistics and such. They should give you more clear statistcs like block rates, rebound rates, pass ratings, ball handling ratings, and things like that. Good luck!

[Chronz]

Yea these are my main sources for all my bball needs

It has all of ESPN Insider Stats for free
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

82games.com is also a great source

[Andrew]

As I explained in my previous post, the stats/sim engine is far from perfect and I have to work with what I'm given, which leads to player-specific adjustments and therefore some discrepencies here and there.

[lurgee]

but the main target should be to create the most realistic out of this "far from perfect" engine. i would agree if the suns would get too strong in the game with a stronger marion. but with the roster update (at least partly because of marions changes) the suns are not the team they used to be.
and according to http://www.basketball-reference.com (the more sources i get the more evidence i find to point out marions dominance ) marions production (i´m talking about production, not leadership) is the main reason for the suns record (more win shares than nash; as long as i got it right).
by the way:
"my" marion (the one mentioned earlier with 93 overall) led the suns to a 56:26 record (with amare in the line up)
"your" marion went to a record of 51:31 (with amare)
i let it up to you to decide which one is the more accurate because nobody knows how the season would have ended for the suns with amare in the starting line up.

i know the problem now: it´s marions versatility. his stats fit almost perfectly when used as a sf. but there has to be a way to reflect his ability to play PF. (maybe the same reason why diaws numbers as a center are that low; he steals more than he should but scores less and mainly passes to less). you know a lot more about this stuff than i do so maybe you will find a way to reflect marions PF-ability.
the main concern now however is that marions FG% (i haven´t noticed earlier) as a SF is down to .422% and when used as a PF .436%. we know from last year that marions FG% as a SF was .476% and this year as a PF .525%. since his point average of around 21 when used as a SF (in nba live 06) matches the point averages of his nba season, marion simply needs to shoot less but with a higher percentage (in nba live 06).
marions point average when used as a PF is only 15 (as mentioned earlier) instead of around 20 as it turned out to be this year. so as unrealistic as it sounds maybe you should raise marions inside scoring ability. one can´t deny that he is shooting extremely well and highly efficient this year. at least you´ve got to give him credit for that.

suggestion:
the rating adjustments chronz suggested:
off.reb. up to 70
def reb. up to 88
and maybe boost inside scoring and FG rating (i did that (fg to 90!) and came up with a .477% fg average for marion when used as both SF and PF)
lower his attempted shots (no clue how)


by the way:
jefferson steals rating 80 (0,8 steals/game)
marion steals rating 80 (2 steals/game)
maybe jeffersons should be lowered

[Andrew]

but the main target should be to create the most realistic out of this "far from perfect" engine.

I'm not sure you understood what I was saying before. Basically, because the stats/sim engine isn't perfect, some ratings need to be adjusted accordingly otherwise they won't be realistic.

Take Primacy, for example. Point guards with a high offensive awareness can still score a fair amount of points with a lower Primacy rating, which is why I have Steve Nash in the 30s. If you put him up to 60 or so, he's guaranteed to score too much. Thus, it must be balanced out.

[lurgee]

but the main target should be to create the most realistic out of this "far from perfect" engine.

I'm not sure you understood what I was saying before. Basically, because the stats/sim engine isn't perfect, some ratings need to be adjusted accordingly otherwise they won't be realistic.

argghhh that´s exactly what i´m talking about. marions stats are far from correct. that is why his ratings need to be adjusted.

[Andrew]

Just for comparison:

Marion's stats through simulation using the NLSC roster update:

22.5 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 1.0 apg, 1.60 spg, 1.22 bpg

Results do vary but they usually come out similar to that.

Marion's stats in real life:

21.8 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.98 spg, 1.69 bpg

I wouldn't exactly call that "far from correct". Considering how the stats engine usually treats us, I'd call that "not bad at all" at the very least. Agreed steals and blocks can come up a bit and from the offensive/defensive averages defensive could perhaps come up slightly but that's about it. Maybe passing for the assists average but the assist numbers don't really work as well as they should. For example, it's almost impossible to get Nash to average more than 8.5 per game.

So yes, I will take your suggestions into consideration. But I do not consider those results awful or "far from correct". Room for improvement, yes, but for the stats/sim engine in place not too far off.

[Chronz]

Yeah I was about to say Marion didnt have those stats in my Dynasty he was a 20 and 10 player. Seriously though dont raise his FG ratings he lives off feeds from Nash and Diaw, I was under the assumption that fg ratings was only to improve a players shot, marion doesnt have one. Hes a hardworker who gets his pts with very little plays called for him just putbacks, tip dunks, ally oops, and the occasional 3.

His ratings look fine to me

[Andrew]

Exactly, I don't see the need for any boosts in his offensive ratings since those tend to work out OK. But the changes you suggested for his rebounding and defensive ratings might be in order.

[lurgee]

you forget that marion played mostly PF not SF this season. that´s the point. i posted that his numbers as a SF are surprinsingly accurate. but he "sucks" when used as a PF.
marions stats as PF
14,2 points; 9,5 reb; 2,5 o.reb.; 7 d.reb. ;steals 1,76; blocks 1,54
compared to his real stats: this season mostly used as a PF
21,8 points; 11,8 reb; 3,1 o.reb.; 8,8 def.reb.; steals 2; blocks 1,7
as a wrote earlier i don´t know if there is a way to do that but he would need adjustments to go along with his ability to play PF.
that´s all i wanted to say.
his SF stats are almost perfect i wrote that two posts before and totally agree with you. it´s only his PF stats (and rating)...

[Andrew]

The simulation I posted above was using him as a power forward. His ratings should yield the same results regardless of which position he plays at since they follow the same criteria with the sim engine.

[lurgee]

mine works obviously different...
i tried it again, same result (see my last post). whatever it is, i give in. i ran out of arguments.
maybe i try to complain about a different player

[Andrew]

I don't see how it could work any differently considering it's the same ratings and same game as everyone else.