by koberulz on Sat Mar 02, 2013 2:52 am
Perth's loss tonight means they need to beat NZ on March 22, the last game of the season, and hope NZ lose two of their other three remaining games, all against bad teams. Won't happen.
So NZ will have home court in the grand final against Perth for the second year in a row. The other two playoff spots are wide open, but with Perth in second at 19-6 and Melbourne in third at 10-12, it'd be stupid to suggest they'll actually affect anything. 99% chance third and fourth both have a losing record.
Adelaide benefited most from Gold Coast's demise, and picked up Schescher from Townsville, but were so horribly coached they're the only team mathematically out of the playoffs. Coach Marty Clarke's contract is up at the end of the season, and it's doubtful he'll be renewed. Sacked import CJ Massingale early in the season for only being a catch-and-shoot player, despite the fact that he isn't and was frequently told to fight his instincts to attack the basket, then replaced him with catch-and-shoot player Scott Christopherson, who is performing far worse than Massingale ever did. He's averaging just 1.9 PPG, 0.5 APG, and is shooting 23% from the field in a performance worthy of consideration as the worst import in the history of the league. Coach of the 1986 "Invincibles" 36ers team, Ken Cole, is interested in buying the club, apparently has significant US-based financial backing and a lot of great plans, with the status of Adelaide Arena--currently owned, I believe, by Commonwealth Bank as a result of previous owner Eddy Groves's bankruptcy--the only holdup.
Cairns have competed well the past couple of years, with a grand final appearance and a semi-final appearance, with a slow-down defensive style of game. Went for offensive recruitment this season, but lost a step defensively. Have some good young Aussie talent, most notably ROTY Cam Gliddon (yet to be awarded, but anyone else getting it would be a travesty), and are in a good position to build in the future if they can get the guys to stick around.
Melbourne have a lot of quality players--most notably Jonny Flynn--but an inexperienced coach and a lot of egos. Have done little more than whine at each other, their opponents and the referees all season. Flynn came out saying and doing all the right things, but has progressively become more selfish and entitled as the season has worn on. Chris Goulding has shown glimpses, but tends to throw up horrendously bad shots. Some of them go in, which just encourages him. Seth Scott showed some great signs early, but Flynn's ballhoggery has kept him completely out of the games since Flynn's arrival in the country and his production has dropped off. Adam Ballinger is starting to find form after a couple of injury-plagued seasons, probably wishing he was playing anywhere else.
Sydney came out like a house on fire, and despite losing Julian Khazzouh and Anatoly Bose to Europe in the off-season looked like making a serious playoff push. Have fallen away of late--currently on an eight-game losing streak--and with Corin Henry out for the season and James Harvey out two more weeks, are likely to miss the playoffs. Ben Madgen was in MVP form early in the year, but appeared to fall off a cliff after the all-star game. Have a fair bit of maneuverability within the points cap for next season.
Townsville sacked both their imports a week before the season, then signed former league MVP Gary Ervin, who was ineffective, and the corpse of Larry Abney. Abney retired mid-season, and was replaced by Luke Nevill, who had become available earlier in the week (whether or not this was a coincidence is unknown). They were 0-10 at the time, but ran off eight straight wins, Ervin now thriving off Nevill's inside presence, to push themselves into contention. Have regressed again recently, but are one of few teams to push Perth a couple of times this year, including a loss at Perth Arena by just three points. Ben Allen was a near-unanimous tip for MIP after the pre-season comp, but hasn't been seen since (although box scores do indicate he's spent time on the court during games).
Wollongong weren't predicted to do much this year, but a Gordie McLeod team is always going to be there or thereabouts regardless of how much talent they look like they have. Cemented their position as a genuine threat to Perth and NZ with a 33-point walloping of the Wildcats a month into the season. Lost their starting backcourt to ACL injuries in the same game, then Glen Saville to a meniscus injury, and retirement, a week later. The week after losing their backcourt, went down to NZ in NZ by just a point. They have a lot of holes to fill in the off-season.
In essence, it's been a perfect mix of injuries, import issues and bad coaching, which has kept 3rd through 8th incredibly close together but well below Perth and NZ, thus the abundance of losing records. NZ should come back to the pack a little next season, as they're the last team still with points cap discounts applied from the old system and they expire this year. Hopefully with Clarke--and, with a bit of luck, Anstey--out of the league next season, it should get back to being a close competition, unless there's another horror season of injuries. Cairns's development will be interesting to watch, as will Wollongong's. They've got the best out of a small budget--they've spent well below the cap the past three or four years--of late, but without Campbell and Saville in the side are likely to struggle. McLeod has a knack for putting together teams far greater than the sum of their parts, so they certainly shouldn't be counted out.
Melbourne are planning to move to Hisense full-time next season, with their owner suggesting that they're aiming to have more members than the Wildcats (who currently have 8.1k). Perth made a fantastic marketing push this off-season, nearly selling out the 12,500-seat Perth Arena for their home opener and having only one crowd all year lower than 10.5k, so it'll be interesting to see what the Tigers can put together.
Sydney will lose the Entertainment Centre, halfway through the season at the latest, and will be forced to move back to Homebush, where they played in the late 80s. Crowds are unlikely to follow them, so they've got the job ahead of them to convert old Razorbacks fans. When the new SEC is finished, though, they're likely to be in a good position if they can sustain crowds at Homebush, with bargaining position and a slightly smaller building more likely to create the scarcity that will attract a bigger crowd.
Perth have a fair number of discount memberships, and prices are only going to go up, so it'll be interesting to see what sort of numbers they can get for next season. I reckon we'll see a drop, although it likely won't be too big. The novelty has been starting to wear off, with their last four crowds breaking the previous lowest attendance mark for the year. A championship will help tremendously, but 10,000 members and 14 sellouts a season aren't something I can see happening.
Ken Cole apparently has a lot of fantastic ideas for the 36ers, so hopefully the Arena situation gets sorted and allows his purchase of the club to go through. Adelaide aren't entirely financially safe by the sounds of things, and crowds have been turned off by their abysmal performance this season. Cole certainly seems capable of reviving hoops in Adelaide, which is more necessary than expansion for the health of the league; losing Adelaide could well be the death blow.