Kevin Pelton's Projected 2017-18 Standings

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Kevin Pelton's Projected 2017-18 Standings

Postby benji on Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:33 pm

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2022 ... -18-season

Western:
1. Warriors (62-20)
2. Rockets (55-27)
3. Spurs (53-29)
4. Timberwolves (50-32)
5. Thunder (50-32)
6. Clippers (49-33)
7. Nuggets (47-35)
8. Jazz (45-37)
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9. Pelicans (44-38)
10. Blazers (44-38)
11. Mavericks (35-47)
12. Grizzlies (35-47)
13. Lakers (33-49)
14. Suns (30-52)
15. Kings (27-55)

Eastern:
1. Celtics (49-33)
2. Cavaliers (49-33)
3. Wizards (48-34)
4. Bucks (47-35)
5. Hornets (44-38)
6. Raptors (43-39)
7. Heat (42-40)
8. Pistons (35-47)
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9. Sixers (33-49)
10. Magic (32-50)
11. Pacers (32-50)
12. Knicks (32-50)
13. Nets (30-52)
14. Bulls (29-53)
15. Hawks (27-55)
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Re: Kevin Pelton's Projected 2017-18 Standings

Postby Kevin on Mon Aug 07, 2017 1:26 pm

Lakers not getting in the playoffs? Fake news.
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Re: Kevin Pelton's Projected 2017-18 Standings

Postby Jackal on Tue Aug 08, 2017 1:15 am

I agree with most of the lists. I think out west I'd switch the Jazz/Nuggets with the Pelicans/Blazers. Maybe I'm giving too much credit to those two teams though.

A part of me hopes the Pelicans don't make the playoffs though. I know he's an emotional lesbian but I don't think having Cousins would be a bad thing in combination with Paul George. Laker pipe dreams.

Also I think out in the East, if the Sixers can remain healthy, they'll make the playoffs. Probably over the Pistons. Drummond really needs to start playing up to that contract. Also Jackson needs to get his shit together or they need to move him. The addition of the other emotional lesbian big man to the Wizards will also benefit them.
Hey, I could use the same last sentence for the Hornets.
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Re: Kevin Pelton's Projected 2017-18 Standings

Postby air gordon on Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:56 am

Hawks the worst in the east? Surprise. Same with twolves high ranking

A full year of jokic plus Millsap. Denver will be my league pass team this year. My sleeper team next year
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Re: Kevin Pelton's Projected 2017-18 Standings

Postby [Q] on Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:06 am

Dude the rockets are going to be so good this year. I could see them challenging warriors for #1.
6-10 will be close in the west like it is every year, but I don't see clips doing that well plus blazers will have a full year of nurkic
Wolves are stacked now, let's see if it works out

Hawks last is surprising. Cavs spot obviously dependent on Irving.

I know it's wishful thinking, but I think Lakers will win more games lol
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Re: Kevin Pelton's Projected 2017-18 Standings

Postby air gordon on Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:28 am

+ 7 wins is a generous projection for a rebuilding team
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Re: Kevin Pelton's Projected 2017-18 Standings

Postby NovU on Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:03 am

Many of the tankers are awarded several more wins. The Bulls aren't winning that many game neither the Nets. Each team lost lone good player on the roster and left with fuck ups.

Did the Pelicans fix DeMarcus - Anthony chemistry issues? Didn't they try to shift AD to pf position when Omer Asik was there which ended up in complete failure? I read somewhere that the issue was taking AD out of paint for Omer was a mistake because they wouldn't be able to fully utilize AD's great defensive and offensive skills there. I think DeMarcus and AD will suffer from similar issues again as both like to operate in same space. I don't know they will win more games than they lose for that reason.

Also LOL at Detroit making the playoffs with 35 wins. That will just be sad.
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Re: Kevin Pelton's Projected 2017-18 Standings

Postby benji on Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:13 pm

He didn't mention it, but I want to remind that like the projections I used to do (and could if I got my act together and added 2015-16 and 2016-17 to my database instead of adding older years) it clusters towards .500 automatically unless a team is particularly bad or good.

In the real world, injuries will happen and some teams will give up on the season, this alone creates the greater spread in normal win-loss records. You also have the other end where teams start to come together or somebody like Westbrook goes nuts. No proper projection system will project very high over 60+ wins because it violates all known statistical knowledge, but it happens in the real world every year, because that good team will get an extra three to four wins beating up on garbage and wind up with 66 wins instead of 62. Plus you'll have games won on the last shot or last possession or so.

I once tried to figure out a way to model this based off of past seasons and it's basically what I said but also impossible to predict for the same reason close wins fluctuate every season. Make the Warriors more like 65 wins and Kings like 24 wins. Rockets 57 wins and Suns 28 wins. Spurs 55 wins and Lakers 31 wins. So on.

You want to use standard deviations too, so not like add four wins to the Celtics and Cavs because they top the conference, but more like one or two, and the same to Wizards and Bucks so they're still all within the margin of error of each other.

That said, it's really the order that's the informative thing, with the win projections showing the gap between teams rather than accurately predicting their wins.

That year I posted mine on here and totally called all fifteen spots in the East and seven of the eight playoff teams in the West in order, the win totals were a complete mess in comparison to the real life ones, but the rank orders were in line.
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Re: Kevin Pelton's Projected 2017-18 Standings

Postby benji on Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:20 pm

NovU wrote:Did the Pelicans fix DeMarcus - Anthony chemistry issues? Didn't they try to shift AD to pf position when Omer Asik was there which ended up in complete failure? I read somewhere that the issue was taking AD out of paint for Omer was a mistake because they wouldn't be able to fully utilize AD's great defensive and offensive skills there. I think DeMarcus and AD will suffer from similar issues again as both like to operate in same space. I don't know they will win more games than they lose for that reason.

The problem was that Asik is offensively useless outside three feet of the basket. Cousins not only can shoot the three and handle the ball, he likes to play out there. They not only can both be on the floor, they can both be on the same side of the floor.

By coincidence, Davis and Cousins played almost the same amount of minutes together last season as Davis and Asik did. Davis/Cousins was +4.0 points per 100. Davis/Asik was -4.3 points per 100.

The year before:
Davis/Asik was -7.2 points per 100.
Davis/Anderson was -2.0 points per 100.

2014-15:
Davis/Asik was +5.3 points per 100
Davis/Anderson was +6.8 points per 100
(Asik/Anderson was -10.8 points per 100)
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Re: Kevin Pelton's Projected 2017-18 Standings

Postby I Hate Mondays on Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:23 pm

Hornets 5th in the East? Go home K. Pelton, you're drunk. They've added Dwight Howard, not Hakeem
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Re: Kevin Pelton's Projected 2017-18 Standings

Postby benji on Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:38 pm

I Hate Mondays wrote:Hornets 5th in the East? Go home K. Pelton, you're drunk. They've added Dwight Howard, not Hakeem

It's the East, Dwight helped Atlanta to 5th last year.
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