Chicago Bulls Thread

[Andrew]

For a backup centre...maybe the $3-6 million range would be reasonable market value? Still hard to do right now with the luxury tax, of course.

What would you pay him?

[NovU]

Wouldn't be a bad pick up at that price. But could you guys afford to keep both Taj and Omer unless amnesty Boozer? If not, that'd be a lot of money invested in just bigs, Noah, Boozer, Gibson, and Asik. A move gotta happen at some point I think. Boozer perhaps isn't in the long term plan for the Bulls but I think he's still the 2nd best big for the Bulls and a good one at that(ofc otherwise for playoffs disappearance).

[Andrew]

That would be the tangible benefit of amnestying Boozer, avoiding the luxury tax to keep players like Gibson and Asik.

[Spree#8]

For a backup centre...maybe the $3-6 million range would be reasonable market value?

I'm afraid that might be wishful thinking. For a good few years now there's been a tendency to overpay bigmen because of lack of quality ones. Examples? DeAndre Jordan, Kwame Brown, Erick Dampier, Eddy Curry... and so on. Asik is limited on offense, but maybe he can improve. And even if not, he's a very good defender and rebounder, which alone makes him really valuable. He might be a backup for the Bulls, but there are some teams in this league he could start for. If the Bulls don't give him a large contract, odds are somebody else will. Is he at least restricted?

[benji]

Yes, Asik is restricted.

Here's the thing about worrying about the luxury tax now and using that as impetus to amnesty Boozer and lose the bench THIS season. It's dumb.

The new more penalizing luxury tax doesn't kick in until the season after AND next seasons tax threshold will be higher than this year. Make one more run at it in hopes that Rose comes back for the playoffs, and then you get to start clean no matter what. Dump the bench mob and Rip, amnesty Boozer, bring over Mirotic.

This is a sixty-win team that contends, you take one more shot at it, or you immediately start gutting it top to bottom. Trade everything. Noah, Deng, GIbson, everyone but Rose, for expirings and picks. Then you start from scratch with a lottery team, because otherwise you're going to be wasting five years on some capped out sixth, seventh and eighth seeds.

[air gordon]

Act like you have a pair when you answer a question. LOL!

The Bulls can’t bring everybody back to the party. Probably Benji knows the exact figures for the lux tax but I’m fairly confident the bulls can’t stay under the tax if they use the MMLE (hinrich), keep Boozer, and resign Asik.

If the bulls amnesty Boozer this year they will have the $ to resign the bench mob (though I don’t know why the Bulls would wanto to pay $6mil to Korver and Brewer). More importantly they could be ok with throwing $5mil per to Asik.

Asik ideally would be a great trade piece but his salary and then BYC status make it rather difficult...

If amnesty isn’t in Reinsdorf’s plans they are going to have to trade Boozer (and most likely include the charlotte pick to get it done ) or start looking at what they can get for Noah or Deng (unlikely with this regime).

[benji]

They don't have to resign the perimeter players, just guarantee their contracts and they expire after the season. No need to extend.

After the season they can let Korver, Watson and Brewer walk, dump 80% of Rip's salary and then amnesty Boozer. Which puts them under the cap, even with a resigned Asik. (Assuming he doesn't get too much.)

Asik ideally would be a great trade piece but his salary and then BYC status make it rather difficult...

BYC isn't in the new CBA except for certain sign-and-trade situations.

[RedPhazon8]

Asik could fix most of his offensive short comings if he can hit his free throws, and be able to get the ball above the rim the second he gets it. Numerous times in the season he takes to long to gather the ball and he ends up being blocked or hacked. If he can improve both of those areas he wouldn't have to worry about not being a good source of offense.

[benji]

Crunched some numbers. The cost includes luxury tax.

Scenario One: Amnesty Boozer, waive Korver and Brewer, sign Hinrich for MLE, Asik gets MLE from someone and Bulls match:

Code: Select all

Projection: 46-36
Offense: 98
Defense: 96
Cost: $71-81 million

Player   MPG   
deng,luol   38.6   
noah,joakim   33.8   
gibson,taj   33.8   
watson,c.j.   31.4   
hamilton,richard   26.6   
hinrich,kirk   24.2   
asik,omer   21.7   
butler,jimmy   14.5   
lucas,john   9.7   
scalabrine,brian   4.8   


Scenario Two: Keep Korver and Brewer, Asik signed to MLE and Bulls match:

Code: Select all

Projection: 60-22
Offense: 104
Defense: 96
Cost: $92 million

Player   MPG   
deng,luol   36.2   
noah,joakim   31.4   
boozer,carlos   29.9   
gibson,taj   28.0   
brewer,ronnie   24.2   
watson,c.j.   24.2   
hamilton,richard   24.2   
lucas,john   16.9   
korver,kyle   12.1   
butler,jimmy   7.2   
asik,omer   7.2   

Now I'm not a billionaire, and that may comes as a shock, but I have to think you'd make back that $10-20 million with a title run. Plus the cost is less than what the Mavericks and Lakers paid for the last two titles.

If they come up short (or even if they win) they can clear $30 million off the books immediately. (Plus that $11 million in tax.)

[NovU]

60 wins? Is that without Rose?

If that's the case, it'd be crazy to start panicking and re-structure the roster.

[benji]

Is that without Rose?

Can you read?

[NovU]

I didn't see no Rose in the stat sheet you provided. So was just wondering.

[benji]

No, Rose isn't there, because it's without Rose.

[NovU]

benji deserves a tech, Andrew.

[Andrew]

What's everyone's stance on keeping Thibodeau around beyond next season? Seems like a no-brainer to me, I say get it done. He's proven his worth as a coach, he doesn't seem to have alienated his players or worn out his welcome. Next season looks like it's going to be rough but he's earned the right to weather the storm and be trusted with the job beyond that.

[air gordon]

Benji- does your analysis include Deng missing potentially the first month or 2?

[benji]

No, assumption is all players play 82 games at those MPG. I didn't know about Deng. Also I could do things like toss Rose in for ten or fifteen games or so but it's just easier to ignore him and see how good the team is before he adds his 10-15 games.

If you want to suggest minutes/% of time (best method for easy lineups...i.e. Deng plays 75% of minutes in the second scenario)/etc. I can easily run it.

So can anyone else if they grab the file from a few pages back which includes an older but still useful version of the rotation tool.

I can tell you this, if Deng misses 15-25 games then both scenarios will probably approach ten wins worse or more.

Bulls were 18-9 without Rose this year and a lot of those were without Deng, and that's 55 wins. And they were on and off having Rose. I think going in knowing they don't have Rose they could probably hang around 50 wins, this is a really fucking good team despite what NovU thinks.

Also, to add a disclaimer, I don't subscribe to the "single season" model but I wanted to illustrate how much offense is lost. And since I have the Bulls numbers.

[NovU]

this is a really fucking good team despite what NovU thinks.

Right. I thought the Bulls were a horrible team that they should implode and start rebuilding immediately.

The projection actually surpassed my initial prediction. We all knew the Bulls were still a good team without Rose(as shown this season) but 60 wins I don't think was what a lot of folks here expected. But then wasn't the projection ok with Odom for the Mavericks? There were reasons but it's true the projection doesn't take some of intangibles into an account. And it's based on assumption that the players remain at the level they played this season.

[RedPhazon8]

I can't see them winning 60 games without Rose, he's that piece that puts them in the 60 wins range. 50 wins though is a good enough projection for a Roseless/Dengless team as they recover from injuries.

[benji]

But then wasn't the projection ok with Odom for the Mavericks?

I don't see how this would be possible.

There were reasons but it's true the projection doesn't take some of intangibles into an account.

In the Odom case it wouldn't be able to project that he'd spiral into depression upon leaving LA, no.

And it's based on assumption that the players remain at the level they played this season.

As was already stated, this was done for simplicity sake. And using the prior season is good for 98% of qualifying players.

[air gordon]

Appreciate you putting that together. I am surprised by your optimism although the nba is full of shit teams, Thibbs can coach the team to a lot 76-74 wins, and Asik's inevitable ascension into an offensive force will happen.

Still. There are a lot of things that have to go right for the best case scenario of ~50 wins happening.
-England gets eliminated early allowing Deng to get the surgery asap
-At the age of 31 Boozer amazingly puts in back to back healthy & productive seasons
-Mr. Glass Hamilton also has a resurgence of health and “goodness”
-Rose returns to a competitive level/management lets him try
-And last but not certainly least Reinsdorf for the 1st time ever pays the luxury tax. Reinsdorf has mantained the stance of paying the tax for a contending team. If there was ever a time he would have done it, it would have been last year.

Management never reads the forums. for shame lol

[Andrew]

Here's a rumour for you:

While the front office may seek out minimum-salary veterans at several positions, including point guard, a source tells CSNChicago.com that the Bulls will take a run at future Hall of Famers Steve Nash and Jason Kidd in free agency, trying to convince the former All-Stars that they will have an opportunity to win a championship, of which Kidd has one, from last season with the Mavericks, and Nash has none, in Chicago.

Seems a bit far-fetched with the luxury tax looming and no cap flexibility. I reckon it's 50/50 between Phoenix and Miami for Nash anyway, while Kidd either stays in Dallas or retires.

Rose is also notably making progress:

Rose is already walking with a soft brace on his injured knee and only one crutch, according to a source who has witnessed the Bulls superstar's initial stages of.recovery at the Berto Center. Another source, who spoke to Rose recently, told CSNChicago.com that the All-Star point guard's "spirits are up," a consistent description of his mental state since surgery to repair his torn left ACL last month.

[RedPhazon8]

I think going after Nash is a great idea if the price is right, depending on how much longer him and Hamilton have. If Rose returns and Nash can still play you run the risk of have conflicts with Hamilton, but a back court with Rose and Nash could be a winning formula.

[Spree#8]

If Nash is going to Chicago, he'll probably have to bring the Suns' medical staff there with him. Especially if Thibodeau would plan to play him 40 minutes a night.

As for Nash leaving Phoenix, I have to say I'll believe it when I see it.

[Andrew]

I think Nash can probably continue to play at a high level for a few more years left, so he's likely going to be asking for more than the Bulls can give him. It's an interesting thought and would make for a really good one-two punch at the position when Rose gets back, but I don't think it's feasible. Like I said, I get the impression it's between Phoenix and Miami for Nash anyway.